Regardless of what shape Israel's next government takes after tomorrow's election, the rise of the far-right will increase the risk of violence in the Palestinian territories and could harm foreign ties with Arab states and the United States. On Nov. 1, Israel will hold its fifth general election since 2019 following the collapse of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's government in June after holding power for a little over a year. Most polls suggest that the results will be divided narrowly between right-wing parties led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and left-wing, Islamist, and center-right parties that oppose him led by current caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid. But polls also show a surge of support for Religious Zionism, a far-right umbrella party that looks likely to become the third largest party in the Knesset. While officials in the United States and the United Arab Emirates have warned that an Israeli government that includes Religious Zionism would strain ties, Netanyahu has said he's likely to include the party in his cabinet in order to return to power.

• Religious Zionism's surge in the polls has come as right-leaning Israeli voters are changing their political support in the wake of the Bennett-Lapid rotation government. Bennett, himself a right-wing nationalist, became deeply unpopular with the right after he cut a deal with leftists and Islamists last year to oust Netanyahu from power. Bennett's support has dropped so much that he isn't running in the election. Support for Religious Zionism also strengthened after the Jewish-Arab riots during the 2021 Gaza War and the springtime wave of terrorism in 2022 that killed over a dozen Israelis in individual attacks.
• Religious Zionism is an umbrella party that includes Israel's far-right Otzma Yehudit and Noam parties. Its political platform includes calls to exclude Israeli Arab parties from government, expand settlements in the West Bank (including ones currently considered illegal under Israeli law) and weaken the Supreme Court's checks on the Knesset. The party also opposes same-sex marriage and the formation of a Palestinian state, and supports expelling ''disloyal'' citizens from Israel and annexing West Bank territory. Individual leaders of the alliance, like Knesset member Itamar Ben-Gvir, have personally taken part in provocative street protests and violence with Palestinians in East Jerusalem, where the party favors expelling Palestinians to make way for more Jewish settlers.
• U.S. Senator Robert Menendez and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed both warned Netanyahu about including Religious Zionism in a future government, saying it could harm their countries' respective ties to Israel. A Democrat from New Jersey, Menendez is widely seen as pro-Israel, while the United Arab Emirates normalized relations with Israel in 2020 as part of the Abraham Accords.

Even if it's not included in the next government, Religious Zionism's increased popularity will translate into greater influence over Israel's political discourse and government policies. Becoming the third largest party in the Knesset would give Religious Zionism a greater opportunity to push its narratives in both the media and in the legislature. Even if the alliance's members end up in the opposition, they will still try to reframe national debates around Palestinians to become more exclusionary and undermine public support for negotiations or concessions towards the Palestinians. Their members in the Knesset would likely also engage in provocative street protests and far-right activism that could provoke violence from other Israelis and Israeli Arabs. Some Religious Zionism lawmakers would try to organize paramilitary groups to increase the public profile of their intimidation campaigns against Palestinians as well. Additionally, if another weak coalition government is formed that excludes Religious Zionism, the alliance would likely appeal to the voters of the right-wing parties in the ruling bloc to pressure individual Knesset members to quit the government, trigger new elections, and enter power in another round of polls.

• Israel's 120-seat Knesset needs a 61 majority vote to form a government, though not all members of the vote need to then join the government for it to stand. Minority governments are thus possible in Israel, but they are also rare as such governments have historically been very weak. That is in large part because most Arab-majority political parties in Israel have long refused to sit in any government and regularly join no-confidence measures as a protest, which has made it easier for the opposition to bring down minority governments. 
• The wave of unrest and Palestinian suicide bombings during the 2000-2005 Second Intifada has since prompted many Israelis to perceive Palestinians as intrinsically violent and disinterested in peace. This, along with the emergence of a nuclear Iran, has seen Israel's electorate become increasingly nationalistic and right-wing over the past 20 years — driven largely by the rise of young Israeli voters who came of age during these events.

If included in government, Religious Zionism's policies towards the Palestinians and social issues could spark a backlash from Israeli secular, left-wing and Arab communities that could escalate into violence and destabilize the West Bank and Gaza. Religious Zionist leaders are aiming for control of Isreal's interior and defense ministries. But while it's not certain they could secure either of these posts, they will be in the cabinet in the event of a Netanyahu-bloc victory. Religious Zionist leaders' inclusion in the next government would likely prompt their political opponents in both Israel and the Palestinian territories to stage protests and strikes — raising the risk for more bloody clashes on the streets akin to those seen during the 2021 Gaza War. If the unrest turns deadly, these largely grassroots-led incidents could escalate into wider Palestinian-Israeli violence by dragging in organized Palestinian militias like Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

• Widespread grassroots violence is already present in the West Bank, inflamed by a poor economy, settlement expansion and the lack of a viable peace process. A group called the Lion's Den, a newly formed Palestinian militant group centered around Nablus, has become a focal point for Israeli military operations attempting to tamp down on this unrest. In an effort to improve the West Bank's economy, Israel has also issued more work permits to Palestinians — a move that Religious Zionism appears to oppose. 
• Israel controls the humanitarian aid Hamas and PIJ need to keep Gaza's economy running. But while this will deter them from triggering another greater military conflict, the two Palestinian militias are still likely to respond to pronounced violence in the West Bank or East Jerusalem with rocket or missile attacks against Israel. 

Foreign governments would be unlikely to immediately change relations, but popular sentiment surrounding Israel could weaken in the United States. The countries that have normalized ties with Israel over the past two years as part of the Abraham Accords — which include the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan — did so despite objections from their populations. If the Nov. 1 election yields an Israeli government that includes Religious Zionism, these countries are unlikely to reverse course and thereby give up the economic and security benefits they've gained so far from normalization, though they could informally back boycotts against Israeli trade. Other countries that are considering normalizing ties with Israel, like Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, might freeze or slow those efforts as well. A more far-right government is unlikely to drastically alter Israel's relations with the United States, where there remains bipartisan pro-Israeli sentiment in the White House and Congress. The popular discourse around Israel could, however, become more critical — potentially making U.S.-Israeli relations a key issue in the run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 

• In recent years, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have been covertly expanding their ties with Isreal to avoid angering their Muslim populations who remain opposed to normalization without the establishment of a Palestinian state. Saudi Arabia has been allowing high-profile Israeli individuals to conduct business and/or compete in international sports events in the kingdom. Indonesia has been quietly expanding trade links with Israel as well, despite not having an official relationship with the country.
• Support for Israel is becoming more partisan in the United States, with Republicans adopting a stronger pro-Israel position in response to Democrats' increasing skepticism of the current bilateral relationship. In September 2021, lawmakers from the Democratic Party's progressive wing managed to temporarily halt the sale of new Iron Dome supplies to Israel in protest of the country's conduct during the Gaza War, but lacked the numbers or influence in Congress to fully block such transfers.