On Jan. 6, RANE Worldview published its 2025 Annual Forecast containing our predictions for 2025. This piece is designed to complement our forecasts by focusing on top risks that could emerge over the course of the year and have a major impact on organizations and/or their operations. This report highlights two main categories of risks: high-impact risks that, while having low probability, are excluded from the annual forecast but could have significant implications and trends already covered in the annual forecast but presented here in a more extreme nature.
Risk #1: Iran Becomes Much More Aggressive
Iran escalates aggressively, targeting regional oil and gas infrastructure and exiting the nuclear non-proliferation treaty or signaling nuclear ambitions following Israeli or U.S. attacks on its nuclear or hydrocarbon sectors. Iran and allied militias in Iraq and Yemen resume attacks on critical Gulf oil facilities, such as Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq and Ras Tanura sites, Kuwait's Mina al Ahmadi terminal, and infrastructure in Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Disruption of oil tanker traffic in the Persian Gulf through ship detentions or explosive devices would have global repercussions, straining a stagnant 2025 global economy. Escalation might also prompt physical attacks on office buildings in Gulf cities like Abu Dhabi, Doha and Dammam, as well as deeper into Saudi Arabia in Jeddah and Riyadh. In this scenario, organizations should prepare evacuation plans, address local staff safety and strategize for crisis scenarios.
Risk #2: Ukraine Ramps Up Daring Operations in Russia
Ukraine significantly ramps up activity inside Russia and Belarus, carrying out frequent assassinations and attacks on critical Russian infrastructure and political sites. In response, Russia expands its sabotage campaign in Europe, blaming NATO countries for enabling Ukraine's attacks. Russian operatives carrying out more frequent arson, explosives and other attacks in Europe, targeting critical infrastructure networks, such as energy systems and subsea communications cables, as well as targeting corporations and executives, including defense contractors supplying weapons to Ukraine, who are perceived as supporting the country. Russia-backed attacks in Europe impact economic growth, disrupt supply chains, hinder service delivery and undermine political stability across the Continent. In this scenario, organizations should map out what assets of theirs, if any, are the likeliest to be targeted, consider increasing security measures at such facilities, and increase executive protection, particularly if they operate in sensitive industries. Organizations should evaluate critical infrastructure in their areas of operation to identify vulnerabilities and develop contingency plans to address potential service disruptions.
Risk #3: Jihadist Threat Rapidly Grows, Resulting in More Attacks in the West
Al Qaeda, Islamic State or another group takes advantage of the fall of Assad and clashes between Kurdish and Turkish-backed Syrian opposition forces that result in the jihadist group rapidly expanding throughout 2025. The rapid growth of this jihadist group in the region leads them to quickly seize territory in Iraq and Syria. Such a risk would be more likely to emerge if the United States rapidly withdraws troops from Iraq or Syria and many Islamic State fighters being held in prison escape or are released. In Iraq and Syria, this jihadist group has the space to carry out attacks against oil and gas infrastructure, as well as major attacks in Baghdad and Mosul. The quick growth of this new group also inspires more attacks by local cells or actors in Western countries. If this occurs, organizations operating in Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Turkey and nearby regions should enhance monitoring for jihadist activity and update or reinstate security protocols from the peak of Islamic State activity between 2014 and 2017. In the West, organizations' security operations centers should ensure that communications channels between them and local and federal law enforcement are well established to be advised of emerging threats.
Risk #4: The United States Moves Quickly on All Tariffs, Helping Trigger Global Recession
The United States follows through with a blanket 10% tariff on all imports and additional tariffs of 60% on China and 25% on Mexico and Canada, and most countries retaliate with similarly sized tariffs. High tariffs, coupled with a significant economic slowdown or crisis in China and/or Europe, trigger a global recession that is further intensified by these tariffs, leading most developing countries into a period of severe stagflation with high unemployment by late 2025 or early 2026. Many multinational corporations are already preparing for increased tariffs under Trump’s administration, but in this scenario, organizations face significantly higher tariffs, coupled with sharply reduced consumer and client spending power, leading to a substantial decline in sales volumes for numerous businesses. Organizations should be considering contingency plans to deal with a scenario with significantly lower demand and significantly higher prices, as many of the contingency plans in place to deal with high tariffs, such as stockpiling resources or boosting investment into alternative production locations, can create new risks if an organization's turnover is significantly lower, leading to inventory pileup and/or higher borrowing needs to fund projects.
Risk #5: A Significant Decline in Oil Prices
Oil prices fall to $60 per barrel or lower for a sustained period due to stagnant global demand, increasing non-OPEC supply, and OPEC+ prioritizing market share over production cuts. Structurally lower oil prices create the risk of economic and financial crises in major oil and natural gas-producing countries, with Algeria, Angola, Iraq and Nigeria among those most exposed to a sudden downturn in oil prices. In these countries, this could manifest with higher political instability, protests and rioting. Organizations could face supply chain disruptions, protests near their facilities, heightened currency risk due to significant devaluation and potential government-imposed capital controls on profit repatriation in affected countries. Although most developed countries would benefit from lower energy prices, areas highly dependent on oil and gas production, such as Texas, parts of Australia and Western Canada, would suffer, affecting non-oil and gas companies in those regions as well. Organizations should prepare by evaluating their supply chains and locations for operations that may be exposed to disruptions in the event of an oil price collapse.
Risk #6: China Implements De Facto Blockade or Quarantine on Taiwan
China increases the scope and frequency of military exercises around Taiwan, which significantly disrupts Taiwan's maritime access for a monthslong period of time. China's de facto blockade on Taiwan causes a significant disruption to the Taiwanese economy and its crucial semiconductor and electronics industries, disrupting the global supply chain for those goods. While semiconductors and electronics can be flown out of Taiwan, air freight cannot replace the import of all inputs needed for the industry, such as equipment and energy products, therefore causing a disruption nonetheless. Organizations dependent on semiconductors and electronics produced in Taiwan — or produced elsewhere using components from Taiwan — would see a disruption in supplies reminiscent of the 2022-23 semiconductor shortage. Organizations can mitigate this risk by increasing the slack in their supply chains with boosted stockpiling and continuing to work to accelerate the diversification away from Taiwan to other countries for similar products, if available. While higher stockpiles cannot fully mitigate the risks that a Taiwan war would cause, they can reduce the risks of some intermittent supply disruptions that a de facto blockade or quarantine through military exercises can cause.
Risk #7: Strong Dollar Triggers Debt Crises in Latin America and Other Emerging Markets
U.S. macroeconomic policies — high tariffs, tax cuts and fewer Fed interest rate cuts — result in the dollar strengthening against most global currencies. The strong dollar triggers debt and other financial crises in several emerging markets and developing countries, with countries that have high sovereign or corporate debt denominated in dollars. Countries most exposed include Argentina, Kenya, Nigeria, Tunisia, Ecuador, Pakistan and Ghana, but even countries perceived at lower sovereign risk, like Brazil, Cote d'Ivoire and Mexico, could also be affected. Organizations operating in these countries could be impacted in a multitude of ways, including reduced demand due to an economic downturn, higher exchange rate and profit repatriation challenges — especially if capital controls are imposed, rising borrowing costs, increased inflation, and heightened political or social instability. The dollar's strength will also negatively affect companies dependent on imported goods that are often denominated in U.S. dollars. Organizations should look across their asset, client and supplier bases to determine which parts are most exposed to a strong dollar and consider mitigation strategies, such as currency hedging and minimizing local currency holdings.
Risk #8: Political Polarization in the West Disrupts Policymaking
Political polarization in the West accelerates and causes a significant disruption in policymaking, even in governments that have been viewed as very stable in the past. Disrupted policymaking leads to governments being less able to pass crucial pieces of legislation, such as annual budgets, which in turn fuels more extremism and additional constitutional crises. In the United States, this may manifest in more political disputes and budget fights, causing more frequent and prolonged government shutdowns. In contrast, in Europe, it may manifest in more political crises caused by an inability of complex coalition governments to govern or to form a government after elections. High political instability diminishes consumer confidence and amplifies business uncertainty, eroding investor trust. This often leads to stalled legislation, including both structural reforms and subsidies that businesses rely on. It can also result in governments being unable to respond quickly to crises, such as economic slowdowns, through legislative action and increasing spending. Companies can mitigate this risk by working to diversify operations, carrying out country or jurisdiction-specific scenario planning with tailor-made mitigation strategies and then putting a monitoring plan for political developments into place.
Risk #9: Climate Change Causes Significant Disruption to Operations
Natural disasters intensified by climate change remain a potent and growing risk to organizations. Natural disasters impact nearly every region of the world, including via prolonged droughts, more destructive earthquakes, flooding and extreme weather events. Many of these disasters are becoming more frequent or intensified due to climate change. Organizations need to proactively monitor their supply chains, operations, and supplier networks for potential natural disasters. This includes developing response plans for likely disasters in specific regions and keeping a close watch on ongoing events, such as Southern Africa's persistent drought, which may continue or worsen in the coming year. While most natural disasters are localized or regionalized events, like droughts, the risk remains high for major supply chain disruptions that affect global or regional trade, such as low levels of water affecting the Panama Canal and Rhine River in recent years, causing a disruption to shipping through those vital maritime arteries. Mitigation strategies for companies should include proactively preparing shipping and supplier contingency plans in the event that key shipping routes — such as the Rhine, Mississippi or other rivers, or drought-affected canals — become disrupted.
Risk #10: Artificial Intelligence (AI) Causes Societal and Business Disruptions
A fast acceleration in the development or adoption of AI exacerbates societal and business disruptions and in some cases triggers major reputational crises. The rapid adoption and development of artificial intelligence in 2025 causes significant societal and business disruptions to the point where many workers and Western societies blame AI for unemployment, job losses and loss of wages. This results in a surge in labor activism — both organized labor movements and organic action by ununionized workers — that causes work stoppages to proliferate in 2025. For organizations, this threat also results in an increase of disgruntled workers as well as fired or laid-off employees looking at ways to hurt a company, such as through intellectual property theft, public naming and shaming, and violence. Moreover, this societal backlash against AI results in a surge of governments accelerating efforts to protect workers from the adoption of AI, leading them to more frequently intervene on behalf of workers at the company's expense, as well as efforts to increase regulations around firing workers or replacing them with artificial intelligence. Moreover, companies that are accused of being negligent or abusing AI are likely to be frequently singled out by regulators, society and on social media, creating a higher degree of reputational risk.
