The prospect of declining U.S. support for Ukraine will embolden Russia to attempt to make additional territorial gains on the battlefield and increase domestic political and social pressure on Kyiv to negotiate a ceasefire with Moscow. Russia reacted to Donald Trump's electoral victory with celebrations in Moscow and positive statements by Russian officials, with many claiming that it would at least open the door to an end to the conflict in Ukraine. The chairman of the Russian State Duma's Committee on International Affairs, Leonid Slutsky, said that "with Trump's victory in the elections, there is a chance for a more constructive approach to the Ukrainian conflict from the Republicans." In the meantime, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Trump on his victory, recalling their "wonderful meeting with President Trump in September, when we discussed in detail the strategic partnership between Ukraine and the United States, the plan for victory, and ways to stop Russian aggression against Ukraine." Zelensky held a phone call with Trump, in which he said the two "agreed to maintain close dialogue and strengthen our cooperation," adding that "strong and unwavering U.S. leadership is essential for the world and for a just peace." 

• Former Russian President and Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev suggested that the victory of the Republican candidate would be a serious blow to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, adding Trump "has one quality that is useful to us: as a businessman to the core, he mortally dislikes spending money on various hangers-on and freeloaders — on idiotic allies, on bad charity projects and on gluttonous international organizations — with which toxic Ukraine is in the same row. The question is how much [money] will they force Trump to give for the war." 
• Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "I am not aware of the president's [Putin's] plans to congratulate Trump. Let's not forget that we are talking about an unfriendly country that is directly and indirectly involved in a war against our state." However, he recalled Trump's "statements that talked about his peaceful aspirations in the international arena. And about his desire to break the spiral and the totalitarian policy aimed at continuing old wars and unleashing new ones. Yes, this statement is quite important." 
• Alexey Pushkov, an influential Russian senator and chairman of the Federation Council Commission on Information Policy, said that Trump would change U.S. policy on Ukraine and that Trump, unlike Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, does not seem to intend to escalate the situation to a military conflict with Russia. Pushkov added that the result would likely be a concerning sign for Kyiv. 
• Russia's Foreign Ministry said "Russia will work with the new Administration when it 'settles' in the White House, firmly defending Russian national interests and focusing on achieving all the goals of the special military operation. Our conditions are unchanged and are well known in Washington."

With Trump victorious, Moscow will likely become more risk-tolerant in the coming months on the Ukrainian battlefield, as it believes further territorial gains will ensure Russia's hand is strongest should a peace negotiation occur. Trump's administration will likely prioritize ending the war in Ukraine quickly, even if it means reducing support for Kyiv to force it to make concessions to Moscow because it will probably assess that boosting Ukraine's position is too costly and that the United States must refocus on countering China in the Indo-Pacific. Moscow believes that the incoming Trump administration lacks the political resolve or strategic capability to oppose its most considerable demands at the negotiating table, namely limitations on Ukraine's Western integration with NATO, ensuring NATO military personnel are not deployed inside Ukraine, and limitations on Western military support for Kyiv's army, in line with the April 2022 negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul. Moscow will likely also push for a follow-up agreement on a new European security architecture. While some Republicans will pressure the Trump White House to bolster Ukraine's position ahead of talks by preserving or even increasing military support for Kyiv, much will depend on the conditions when Trump takes office in January following Biden's lame-duck period. For example, in the coming weeks, the outgoing Biden administration could supply longer-range weapons to Ukraine as it disburses over $6 billion remaining in Ukraine security assistance before Trump's inauguration. As Moscow also wants to enter talks from a position of strength, it will likely expend additional budgetary resources and become more brazen in its offensive to ensure any talks take place amid conditions when the Russian army's advances are continuing — which is well within Russia's capabilities next year. 

• The final draft from April 15, 2022, of the working agreement titled the "Treaty on the settlement of the situation in Ukraine and the neutrality of Ukraine," often referred to as the Istanbul Agreement, would have fixated Ukraine's future inability to militarily resist Russia, limiting the size of the Ukrainian army to 85,000 soldiers — less than a tenth of the amount it currently has mobilized to resist Russian advances, while its tanks would have been limited 342 units, infantry fighting vehicles to 1029 units and artillery to 762 units, among limitations on other systems — capping the Western support to Ukraine well below what it would need to defend itself. 

With the possibility of reduced U.S. support, the Ukrainian government will likely face growing domestic pressure and scrutiny over its strategy for sustaining the war. In Ukraine, Trump's victory will result in growing questions (both among the population and within the country's political and military establishment) regarding the country's overall strategy in an environment in which the United States is skeptical of increasing or even maintaining support to Ukraine, let alone providing it the security guarantees or military capabilities it would need to reliably deter renewed Russian invasion, even if it were to capitulate to Moscow's current territorial demands, which include four annexed regions Moscow does not full control and Crimea. That is why an invitation to NATO and non-nuclear strategic deterrence capabilities were the top priority of Zelensky's "victory plan" presented to Washington and European capitals in October and reportedly even included long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of striking Moscow. While many Ukrainians believe the country's only viable options are either accepting the terms dictated by Russia or continuing to resist, skepticism will continue to grow about the possibility of stopping the Russian army on the battlefield. Instead, pressure will grow for Ukraine to fall in line behind the Trump Administration's attempt to negotiate with Moscow. These efforts are unlikely to bear fruit in the first half of the year, as Russian forces will likely continue to advance while Kyiv will continue to rely on pre-approved military support from the United States and its European partners to stave off painful territorial concessions. However, the probability of negotiations making progress toward a deal will increase in the second half of 2025 as Kyiv's position becomes increasingly desperate.

• According to a September survey of 2,016 people by the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center, over two-thirds of Ukrainians believe it's time to start peace talks with Russia, an increase of 14 percentage points on the same period last year.