Spain's fragile Socialist-led government will likely survive in the short term, but sustained policy paralysis, corruption scandals and public discontent increase the likelihood of early elections that could bring the far right into power, triggering confrontation with Catalonia and the Basque Country, a rollback of progressive laws, heightened social protests and tensions with the European Union. After months of political instability fueled by high-profile corruption scandals in June and July, the August parliamentary recess gave Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez a brief reprieve. But with political activity resuming in September, the government faces mounting challenges that are likely to reignite instability, policy uncertainty and social discontent. These pressures will sustain a constant risk of political crisis that could trigger early elections, in which the conservative opposition, particularly the far right, is well positioned to perform strongly.

• Spain's July 2023 general election resulted in a fragmented parliament where the conservative People's Party obtained 137 of the 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies (the country's main legislative body), followed by Sanchez's Socialist Party with 121 seats. Despite losing the election, Sanchez (who has been prime minister since 2018) managed to be re-appointed thanks to a coalition agreement with the left-wing Sumar party (31 seats) and support from smaller parties, including the center-right Catalan secessionist Junts party, the left-wing Catalan secessionist Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) party, the centrist Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and the left-wing, pro-Basque independence EH Bildu party. 
• Since his 2023 re-appointment, Sanchez has relied on ad hoc alliances to pass legislation and survive no-confidence motions from the opposition. However, Sanchez's network of alliances is fragile, and relations are particularly tense with the Junts party, whose leader (former Catalan regional president Carles Puigdemont) is in exile in Belgium and faces arrest if he enters Spain.

The greatest immediate threat to Sanchez's government stems from his fragile alliance with Catalan parties, whose escalating demands and wavering support could destabilize the administration. In the coming months, the Spanish government will face three challenges that are likely to disrupt the policymaking process and threaten its continuity. The first is the fragility of the alliance supporting Sanchez. In recent months, Madrid has made several concessions to appease its Catalan backers, such as approving an amnesty law for Catalan leaders who participated in the illegal independence referendum in 2017 and forgiving a significant part of the Catalan government's debt. However, these parties are demanding additional concessions, such as granting Catalonia full control of the taxes collected in the region and pressing the European Union to make Catalan one of the bloc's official languages. The Junts party, in particular, has repeatedly threatened to exit its alliance with Sanchez unless the prime minister delivers on his promises. The party is unlikely to pull the plug on the government in the short term, as the collapse of Sanchez's government would open the door to an early election that could result in a victory by the conservative opposition, which is less likely than Sanchez to make concessions to Catalonia. But should Junts reach the conclusion that Madrid cannot, or will not, make any additional concessions, it could formally break its pact with Sanchez. While this would not necessarily bring about the end of the government, it would expose it to no-confidence votes by the opposition, which would succeed in toppling Sanchez if Junts changed sides. As a result, Sanchez's administration will be hanging by a thread, as its future will be in Junts' hands. 

A second major challenge for Prime Minister Sanchez is the growing number of corruption scandals implicating both senior Socialist Party figures and members of his family, which threaten the government's credibility and internal stability. The most notable of these corruption scandals is the so-called ''Cerdan case,'' which centers on allegations of bribery and influence peddling involving Santos Cerdan, a former high-ranking member of the Socialist Party and a close ally of Sanchez. This case originated from a larger corruption probe known as the ''Koldo case,'' which involved kickbacks from public contracts, notably for medical supplies during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Cerdan case is particularly damaging to Sanchez's government because Cerdan was the Socialist Party's organizational secretary and a key figure in Sanchez's rise to power. While Cerdan denies any wrongdoing, the case could result in new revelations involving additional members of the Spanish government, which could negatively impact both its popularity and its internal stability. Separately, Sanchez's wife, Begona Gomez, is under judicial investigation for alleged influence peddling, business corruption and embezzlement of public funds. Meanwhile, Sanchez's young brother, David Sanchez, is under judicial investigation for alleged embezzlement, influence peddling and tax fraud. While Madrid argues that the cases against the prime minister's family are politically motivated and lack substantial evidence, they contribute to a generalized mistrust in Sanchez and his government.

• While most members of the Socialist Party still back Sanchez, some of his rivals within the party have called for his resignation because of the Cerdan case. The case is particularly awkward for the Sumar party, which has demanded an investigation but has refrained from publicly threatening to exit the coalition. Opinion polls suggest that Sumar would perform poorly if there is a general election, which explains why the party will be reluctant to end its agreement with the Socialist Party. However, another major corruption scandal could force Sumar to exit the government to preserve its own image, which would almost certainly trigger an early general election. 

The third major challenge for Sanchez's government is mounting public frustration, which has eroded support for the Socialists while strengthening the far right and opening the door to more social unrest. The combination of concessions to Catalan separatists (which are unpopular among conservative voters elsewhere in Spain), frequent corruption scandals and discontent over other issues (ranging from Madrid's progressive migratory policy to the increasing tax pressure) has resulted in low approval ratings for the government. Opinion polls released in July and August put support for the Socialist Party at around 25%, down from the roughly 32% it obtained in the 2023 general election. In the meantime, polls suggest that the main opposition party, the conservative People's Party, is at around 32-33%, in line with its last electoral result. The main beneficiary of the current political climate is the far-right Vox party, whose support is at around 16-17%, up from the 12% it obtained in 2023. Spain does not have a tradition of widespread social unrest, and violent anti-government protests are unlikely. However, large protests are possible if there is a particularly serious corruption scandal or in the event of a significant case of government mismanagement, such as worsening wildfires, floods or a high-profile security incident. Moreover, recent, though so far relatively isolated, episodes of discrimination against immigrants suggest that Vox's anti-government and anti-immigration rhetoric is gaining traction, which could result in new episodes of violence or boycotts against minorities (especially Muslims) in the country. 

• In July, the case of an elderly man who was assaulted by three men of Moroccan origin in Torre-Pacheco, a town in the Murcia region of southeastern Spain, resulted in anti-immigrant unrest. Far-right groups and social media channels exploited the incident (in many cases, by spreading misinformation) to incite hatred and violence against North African migrants, who constitute a large portion of the town's population. The unrest resulted in clashes between migrants and locals, leading to a number of injuries and arrests. 
• In August, the town council in Jumilla (which is led by the People's Party with support from Vox) passed a measure prohibiting the use of municipal sports facilities for ''religious, cultural or social activities alien to our identity.'' Although the ban did not explicitly mention Muslims, it was widely seen as targeting the local Muslim community, which for years had used these facilities to celebrate the religious holidays of Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha.

Although Sanchez will likely remain in power in the near term due to his allies' reluctance to trigger early elections, legislative paralysis and ongoing political fragility could ultimately set the stage for an early vote ahead of the mid-2027 deadline that risks opening the door to far-right participation in government. Despite his mounting problems, Sanchez will likely survive in the coming months, largely because his allies are not prepared for an early general election that could result in a conservative government. However, this will come at the cost of minimal legislative output and a high probability of the budget being rolled over (Spain has been unable to approve a new budget since 2022). Such paralysis will hinder the government's ability to effectively address Spain's severe housing crisis, high debt levels and sluggish productivity growth, among other key issues. It will also impede Madrid's capacity to manage foreign policy challenges, including tense relations with the United States and a waning influence on EU affairs. While Spain does not need to hold an election until mid-2027, this time horizon could prove too long against the backdrop of a paralyzed government, increasing the chances of an early vote at some point in 2026. An early election would become more likely in the case of a particularly damaging corruption scandal (or significant revelations connected to the ongoing cases), or if any of Sanchez's parliamentary allies end their pact with the prime minister, which would leave him vulnerable to a no-confidence motion from the opposition. Regardless of when it happens, a general election could lead to the far-right entering the Spanish government for the first time since the end of the country's dictatorship in the late 1970s. This is due to the possibility of a fragmented parliament, which might compel the People's Party to form a coalition with Vox. Such a government alliance would increase the risk of confrontation with Catalonia and the Basque Country, as Vox opposes Spain's current decentralized government structure and is critical of regional linguistic policies. It would also raise the risk of progressive laws (e.g., on gender identity and immigration) being rolled back, increased protests from trade unions and left-wing groups, and increased friction with the European Union over climate policies and deeper federal integration.

• The People's Party has been ambiguous about the potential for a government alliance with Vox. Party leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo​ repeatedly says that his goal is to win enough parliamentary seats in the next general election to govern alone. But with opinion polls suggesting that this is virtually impossible, he has not outright rejected the possibility of an alliance with Vox. While Vox frequently criticizes the People's Party (as both compete for a similar electorate), the party has also not categorically ruled out a coalition. In fact, both parties briefly governed together in five Spanish regional governments before disputes over immigration policy led Vox to break all of its pacts with the People's Party in July 2024.