To weaken the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the United States will most likely conduct kinetic attacks on cartel sites in Venezuela over the next three to six months, while a scenario where Washington only sustains its current strikes on drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean Sea is less likely. Other scenarios — including de-escalation, a U.S. operation targeting Maduro, a negotiated solution or a U.S. military invasion of Venezuela — are highly unlikely to occur. On Oct. 15, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed he had authorized the CIA to carry out covert operations in Venezuela. He also said he was considering anti-drug trafficking operations on land, in addition to the ongoing U.S. strikes in the southern Caribbean Sea that have targeted at least five boats since early September. The statements, military attacks and drills near Venezuela come after the United States deployed eight warships and 4,500 sailors and marines to the Caribbean in mid-August, a contingent that reportedly increased to 10,000 in October. The White House has informed Congress that the United States is in a state of ''armed conflict'' with cartels in Latin America, and the Pentagon has prepared several military options for action in Venezuela. Additionally, on Oct. 2, Trump ordered the suspension of all diplomatic talks with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government. Venezuela, meanwhile, has deployed soldiers to its western border with Colombia, armed and trained civilians to use rifles, and increased domestic anti-drug operations. Maduro has also declared a state of external commotion (which grants the military control over public services, strategic institutions, the oil industry and border closures), and has repeatedly urged Trump to reconsider military action and choose peace.

Against this backdrop, RANE has developed six scenarios for the next three-to-six months, ranked from most likely to least likely:

Scenario #1: The U.S. Launches Operations in Venezuelan Territory, Gradually Eroding Maduro's Power (40% likely)

The United States escalates military actions to air strikes on cartel sites and covert operations in Venezuela to weaken Maduro's grip on power and create conditions for future regime change. In this scenario, the U.S. military carries out targeted attacks and/or special forces operations against drug labs, cartel logistics hubs, or clandestine air strips or small airports inside Venezuelan territory, in addition to sustaining its attacks against drug trafficking boats or planes in Caribbean international waters and airspace. The United States may also target some Venezuelan military assets linked to criminal groups. However, direct attacks on political targets in Caracas or the deployment of a large contingent of U.S. troops are unlikely, as such actions would risk dragging the United States into a greater military confrontation with Venezuela at a time when American lawmakers and voters have little appetite for further direct intervention in global conflicts. That said, the mere presence of American warships and increased U.S. military activity in the region could, in the long term, help weaken support for Maduro among the military's highest ranks by disrupting the profitable illegal activities that some Venezuelan generals are involved in, ranging from drug trafficking and illegal mining to the oil sector and goods imports. To compound this impact, the Trump administration is also likely to conduct covert operations in Venezuela that seek to bolster the domestic opposition, foster dissent and create further divisions within the Venezuelan military, in an effort to ultimately pave the way for the government's overthrow. Maduro's strict control over the military and other parts of the public security apparatus will likely constrain dissent in the short term, maintaining the military as a key pillar of his regime for the next three-to-six months. But increased U.S. pressure could change this over time. In an attempt to gain leverage against the United States amid its intensified military campaign, the Maduro regime occasionally threatens neighboring countries like Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, but its actions are limited to sporadic harassment of oil and gas vessels. The increased U.S. military presence in the Caribbean poses limited safety risks to cargo, passenger ships or oil tankers, but it still indirectly disrupts maritime activity by increasing insurance premiums — leading companies to either opt for longer and more costly routes or even to cease operations in the area indefinitely. In this scenario, Venezuela also remains under strict U.S. sanctions. However, the Trump administration does not revoke the license that allows Chevron to maintain operations in the country. The U.S. company's ongoing oil exports, in turn, provide a vital revenue lifeline for the Maduro regime and help keep the Venezuelan economy afloat, despite high inflation and occasional shortages of imported goods.

• This is the most likely scenario, as the United States' significant military superiority would limit Venezuela's potential for counter-military measures, thereby reducing operational constraints for Washington.
• Although strikes in Venezuelan territory would raise questions about the violation of the country's sovereignty, recent U.S. actions in the Caribbean have also demonstrated a disregard for international law. The United States would also likely justify the use of lethal force in Venezuelan territory as a necessary act to defend U.S. national security amid its ongoing ''armed conflict'' with cartels, especially following Washington's move to designate these groups as terrorist organizations.

Scenario #2: The U.S. Sustains Current Attacks in Caribbean, Posing Limited Direct Threats to Maduro (25% likely)

The United States continues attacks on drug trafficking boats and aircraft in the Caribbean, but does not escalate to operations in Venezuelan territory due to domestic constraints, resulting in minimal challenges for the Maduro regime. In this scenario, the United States does not escalate to targeting assets in Venezuelan territory or a military incursion due to domestic constraints, such as bipartisan pushback in Congress, legal challenges and/or opposition from Trump's support base. Instead, the U.S. military continues to conduct kinetic attacks on drug smuggling vessels and begins targeting aircraft as well. The Trump administration also imposes more economic sanctions on Venezuela and maintains its hostile rhetoric toward the Maduro regime. However, the U.S. Treasury Department does not revoke the strict license allowing Chevron to operate in the country, and grants similar authorizations to a small number of other European energy firms. The reduced but steady revenue stream from oil and gas exploration, in turn, allows the Venezuelan government to limit shortages of goods and maintain some social programs. This helps the Maduro regime retain some popular support, which, combined with its control over the public security apparatus, reduces protest activity in Venezuela. The Venezuelan government also continues to arm civilians and strengthen its paramilitary forces, such as the Bolivarian Militia and the so-called colectivos, in order to increase the operational and reputational costs of a potential U.S. military action in its territory. Additionally, the Maduro regime threatens neighboring countries like Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, but limits its actions to occasional harassment of vessels and does not concretely attack other countries' oil and gas infrastructure. U.S. military action in the Caribbean is highly unlikely to pose direct safety threats to larger vessels, like cargo or passenger ships or oil tankers. However, the heightened military activity in the region nonetheless increases insurance costs and prompts some shipping companies to reroute vessels along longer, more expensive paths. Certain commercial or leisure activities in the Caribbean Sea are also potentially suspended. 

Scenario #3: The U.S. Retreats, Allowing Maduro to Consolidate Power (15% likely)

A combination of international and domestic pressure forces the Trump administration back down from its ''war on cartels,'' leading to a deal with the Maduro regime that ends U.S. military action in the region for the foreseeable future. In this scenario, some isolationist Republicans in Congress lend their support to Democratic-led initiatives aimed at compelling the Trump administration to demobilize its naval build-up in the Caribbean. Concurrently, the reignition of conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and/or the emergence of new conflicts in Southeast Asia, diverts the White House's attention away from the Western Hemisphere. Against that backdrop, Trump reconsiders the concessions Maduro offered to de-escalate current tensions, which include accepting more migrants deported from the United States, stepping up efforts against domestic drug trafficking and prioritizing U.S. companies for oil, gas and mining contracts in Venezuela. Washington and Caracas ultimately reach a deal, which allows Trump to claim some sort of victory while avoiding displeasing his hard-line supporters, who oppose U.S. military engagements abroad. But the U.S. retreat also strengthens Maduro's own political standing, enabling him to maintain his strict control over Venezuela's institutions and military; this leads to further power consolidation and increased repression of the opposition, including arrests or forced disappearances of prominent leaders and their aides. Military operations in international Caribbean waters also become less frequent, allowing for the gradual normalization of commercial and leisure shipping in the region in the following three-to-six months. The de-escalation also reduces uncertainty for oil and gas companies operating in Venezuela, facilitating a gradual expansion of production. This, in turn, contributes to a marginal economic recovery, helping to reduce popular discontent in Venezuela and migration outflows in the long term. 

Scenario #4: The U.S. Directly Targets Maduro, Forcing Regime Change (10% likely)

The Trump administration tries to force regime change in Venezuela by conducting a targeted attack against Maduro, triggering heightened political instability, an internal armed conflict and a humanitarian crisis in Venezuela. In this scenario, the Trump administration decides that the decapitation of the Venezuelan regime is essential to its strategy of fighting left-wing autocracies in Latin America. Efforts by the Venezuelan opposition — namely, Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado's proposed transition roadmap, which would benefit U.S. companies and ensure that the Maduro regime is replaced by a pro-U.S. administration — further incentivize Washington to act. For months, the United States sustains its attacks on drug trafficking vessels, and begins targeting airplanes in the Caribbean Sea and cartel sites in Venezuelan territory as well. The Trump administration also escalates its rhetoric against Maduro and demands his resignation, reinforcing its narrative that he is a narcoterrorist and an illegitimate president. Washington then eventually resorts to a covert operation or targeted military attack against the Venezuelan president. One possibility is a U.S. drone strike, which the Trump administration could justify as part of its broader crackdown on drug cartels, given its claim that Maduro leads the Cartel de los Soles. However, the United States is more likely to provide arms, logistical support or training to the opposition or radical disgruntled individuals with the Maduro regime, in order to enable them to carry out armed attacks or unsophisticated explosive attacks against the president — thereby granting Washington a degree of plausible deniability in the aftermath of such an event. The power vacuum left by Maduro would usher in a period of heightened political instability in Venezuela. High-ranking members of the Maduro regime, including key Cabinet officials and generals, would likely try to retain control of the government apparatus, since their ousting from power would expose them to potential charges, trials and imprisonment in Venezuela or the United States. Any new leader would also struggle to keep the military hierarchy aligned, likely leading to his or her downfall. Maduro's death would likely strengthen the opposition as well, sparking widespread anti-government protests in major cities or even armed attempts to overthrow the government and install a new administration. Those still in power would seek to repress dissent, likely leading to armed clashes that could push Venezuela toward an internal armed conflict. That said, as a weak Venezuelan government controlled by Maduro's allies would struggle to exert control domestically, it would be less likely to militarily threaten neighboring countries. With Maduro gone, the United States would also de-escalate its maritime strikes, allowing for commercial and leisure shipping operations to resume in the southern Caribbean Sea. 

• Even if Maduro's death leads to a rapid governmental transition, the current opposition would still face significant challenges. Segments of the population and government institutions would remain loyal to Maduro or the left-wing political ideology Chavismo represents, and attempts to purge these individuals from the state apparatus would likely trigger demonstrations, sabotage attempts or even efforts to overthrow the new administration. The resulting uptick in violence, widespread unrest and acute political instability would push the Venezuelan economy into a depression. The further deterioration of living conditions would also reignite a humanitarian crisis in Venezuela and compel hundreds of thousands of people to flee the country, increasing human smuggling to other Latin American nations. Amid this heightened political uncertainty, businesses would be highly skeptical of the new opposition government's proposed privatizations, investments in energy and mining, and debt restructuring plans over the next six months.

Scenario #5: Maduro Resigns as Part of Negotiated Settlement With U.S. (5% likely)

A negotiated solution results in Maduro's resignation and a largely peaceful transition of power, improving Venezuela's economic outlook. In this scenario, despite significant constraints, the United States significantly increases pressure on Maduro by conducting airstrikes in Venezuelan territory, strengthening the domestic opposition and carrying out covert operations to foster dissent within the military. To avoid risking a strike against him or a ground invasion, Maduro agrees to go into exile along with some of his closest allies. But some of these and other high-ranking officials are still potentially arrested and face trial in Venezuela or the United States. The negotiated departure of regime leaders paves the way for a peaceful transition of power in Venezuela, reducing the risk of political instability and unrest. Edmundo Gonzalez — the Venezuelan opposition leader widely recognized as the winner of the contested 2024 presidential election — likely returns from his exile in Spain to assume the presidency. However, Corina Machado retains most power and influence within the new administration, serving as the primary liaison between Caracas and the international community. The orderly inauguration of the new government stabilizes the Venezuelan economy, driving large numbers of Venezuelan migrants to return home as living conditions continue to gradually improve.

• This scenario is highly unlikely because the White House has ceased diplomatic talks with Venezuela and is unlikely to resume them in the next three to six months. Furthermore, Caracas's broad political and military establishment is unlikely to agree to a negotiated solution. This is because Washington's non-prosecution or asylum guarantees would likely only benefit Maduro and a few aides, not the many high-ranking government and military officials implicated in illicit activities such as drug trafficking, human rights violations and corruption.

Scenario #6: The U.S. Launches a Ground Invasion, Forcing Regime Change (5% likely)

The Trump administration resorts to extensive air strikes and a ground invasion to topple the Maduro regime, but the U.S. military presence partially mitigates unrest risks and political instability in the short to medium term. In this scenario, the Trump administration leverages its allies in leadership positions in Congress to bypass domestic legislative efforts to block military action in Venezuela. Despite widespread opposition from U.S. lawmakers and citizens, the White House then proceeds to launch a military ground operation in the Latin American country, with the stated aim of curbing drug trafficking, defeating a leftist autocracy and curbing Chinese influence in the region. To prepare for this intensified operation in a country twice the size of Iraq, Washington gradually escalates its rhetoric against the Venezuelan regime and expands its personnel deployment to the southern Caribbean Sea over a couple of months, while increasing the frequency of kinetic attacks at sea and on Venezuelan territory. The U.S. military then carries out several strikes against Venezuela's main military, political and economic assets in Caracas and across the country, including the presidential palace. The weeks-long campaign ultimately ends with Maduro either fleeing Venezuela and seeking asylum in an allied country or being captured or killed by U.S. forces or opposition militants. Although U.S. forces would likely quickly reach Caracas, some degree of street-level fighting in the capital would result in a high level of civilian casualties and a small number of U.S. soldiers being killed in combat, as some members of the Bolivarian Militia and armed supporters of the Maduro regime would try to defend the government. This scenario would create extensive security threats across Venezuela, particularly as the U.S. and anti-Maduro forces struggle to seize control of more remote areas of the country, such as the dense jungle or mountainous Andean region, where armed Maduro loyalists could hide and regroup. The U.S. military incursion and resulting shootouts would lead to the displacement of thousands of Venezuelans, both internally and to neighboring countries. The United States would maintain some military presence on the ground after the collapse of the Maduro regime, likely enabling the current Venezuelan political opposition to take power. U.S. support for the transition government would increase business confidence in its plans to attract foreign investment. However, Maduro supporters could conduct attacks against new government leaders, officials and public buildings. They could also attack U.S. assets, personnel and citizens both in Venezuela and (to a lesser extent) across Latin America, increasing safety risks for Americans living in or traveling to countries with large Venezuelan migrant populations.