Even if a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds in the coming weeks and months, a series of unresolved issues leaves the door open to violations that will likely strain and could collapse the truce in the future. On June 23, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media that Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire that was scheduled to enter into effect early on June 24. Though the Iranian foreign minister initially denied agreeing to the ceasefire, saying it would only stop attacking Israel once Israeli attacks stopped, Iranian state media later claimed that the ceasefire was "imposed on the enemy." Israel similarly agreed to stop attacks on Iran so long as Iran halted its own attacks. Ahead of the ceasefire deadline, Iran launched missiles that killed three Israelis and injured several more. Israel also launched a series of attacks against different areas in Tehran, in addition to reportedly killing nine people in the northern Iranian province of Gilan. Just hours after the ceasefire took effect, Israel accused Iran of launching two missiles toward northern Israel, which did not result in any casualties, an allegation that Iran has denied. Nevertheless, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz claimed that Iran "completely violated" the ceasefire with these attacks and ordered the Israeli military to resume attacks on Iranian military and regime targets. Trump publicly warned Israel against retaliating and, following a call between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump, Israel decided not to attack a large number of Iranian targets but rather conduct a largely symbolic attack on a radar system outside of Tehran. 

• Trump criticized both Israeli and Iranian actions after the announcement of the ceasefire, which he claimed both countries violated. In speaking with reporters on June 24, Trump said, "I didn't like the fact that Israel unloaded right after we made the deal." However, he did not suggest that the ceasefire had completely collapsed. 

Over the past few days, Iran and Israel have signaled a willingness to de-escalate the conflict, with both sides facing significant pressure from the United States. On June 23, Israeli media sources had said that Israel would likely conclude its attacks against Iran within days. In a June 24 statement, Netayahu said that Israel had agreed to the ceasefire proposal after claiming to have achieved its military goals set forth at the beginning of its June 13 attacks against Iran — namely, to eliminate the threats from the country's nuclear and ballistic missile programs — though it appears Israel did not irreversibly destroy either program. Meanwhile, in response to the June 22 U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran carefully calibrated and telegraphed its June 23 reprisal attack against Qatar's al-Udeid Air Base, which hosts the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, aiming to save face but also prevent another U.S. retaliation that would risk expanding the conflict. Against this backdrop, Trump's June 21 (local time) threat to carry out more expansive attacks against Iran if it did "not make peace" — alongside the U.S. president's significant public and, according to media reports, private pressure on Netanyahu to de-escalate — appears to have forced both sides to the negotiating table.

• Iran widely telegraphed its plans to attack the military base in Qatar before conducting the strike on June 23, which enabled both Qatar and the United States to take precautionary measures to avoid casualties and physical damage. Following the attack, Trump took to social media to call the strike "very weak," thanked Iran for the advanced warning, and called on both Iran and Israel to pursue "Peace and Harmony in the Region." Trump's remarks appeared to indicate that if Iran did not further respond, the United States was unlikely to retaliate. 

Even if the ceasefire holds in the coming weeks and months, unresolved disputes among Israel, Iran and the United States leave the door open to future ceasefire violations that would likely strain and could collapse the agreement. For now, Israel and Iran have reasons to de-escalate and adhere to the ceasefire, with both countries currently facing pressure from Trump and concerned about their dwindling number of missiles, launchers and air defenses. Nonetheless, the various underlying issues that initially sparked the brief Israel-Iran war remain unresolved. First, while the damage caused by Israeli attacks may have set back Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, neither has been eliminated, meaning Iran will likely rebuild both programs. As such, even if the Iranian threat to Israel's national security has been temporarily diminished, it will likely eventually reemerge, providing Israel with the same imperatives to resume attacks against Iran. In addition, Netanyahu, who has repeatedly demonstrated a high risk tolerance and a more aggressive posture to combat perceived threats, will likely face increasing domestic pressure, including from Israeli hard-liners within his coalition government, to carry out another round of attacks to further degrade Iran's capabilities (especially since Israel has shown an expansive ability to attack Iran both from abroad and from within). Furthermore, Trump has repeatedly called for Iran to give up its nuclear enrichment program, something that Tehran has so far shown no interest in agreeing to. This means that, even if the United States and Iran reengage in nuclear talks, they will likely come to the same impasse that stalled negotiations in April and May, with Iran rejecting U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment. If Trump becomes increasingly frustrated with a lack of progress in nuclear talks, he could relax his pressure on Israel to uphold the ceasefire, thereby emboldening Netanyahu to resume attacks on Iran. In a less likely scenario, Trump could also order additional U.S. attacks to further pressure Iran to reach an agreement, but he would likely face resistance from some of his domestic supporters who oppose U.S. involvement in new wars. Thus, while the ceasefire may remain in effect over the next several weeks and months, these unresolved disputes between Israel, Iran and the United States will sustain the possibility of ceasefire violations or even a complete breakdown of the agreement — reigniting a conflict that would again risk spilling into the wider region.