With an impending second Trump administration shoring up U.S. relations, Israel's far-right will further advance their domestic and foreign agendas, from annexing and settling the West Bank and Gaza Strip to calling for more hawkish military campaigns against Iran and its proxies. Donald Trump's victory in the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election was received warmly by Israel's current right-wing government, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calling it a ''historic comeback'' and quickly congratulating Trump. Meanwhile, far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir declared that Trump's election was an opportunity for Israel to finally annex the West Bank and restart settlements in the Gaza Strip. These comments came after weeks of Israeli speculation about how the U.S. presidential election might impact Israel against the backdrop of strained relations between Netanyahu and outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden, who have sparred over Israel's military actions in Gaza, Lebanon and elsewhere in the region.

• During Trump's first term from 2017 to 2021, Netanyahu and Trump had a close relationship, which Netanyahu leveraged to showcase himself to the Israeli public as an indispensable politician for Israel's critical ally in Washington. 
• Trump helped facilitate the normalization of relations between the United Arab Emirates and Israel in 2020, an act of diplomacy that came about partly because Trump convinced Netanyahu to hold off on annexations in the West Bank in exchange for UAE recognition. 
• Since the beginning of the Gaza war in October 2023, Israel's far-right has been organizing and normalizing rhetoric about resettling the strip, which Israel unilaterally evacuated in 2005.

Trump's election will likely politically bolster Netanyahu's government following the recent shock firing of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Gallant was fired on Nov. 5 after months of tensions with Netanyahu over Israel's war strategy, as well as Gallant's opposition to the government's controversial judicial reforms. Gallant was a prominent leader in the center-right faction within Netanyahu's Likud party, and his ouster risked alienating center-right supporters and potentially causing some Likud lawmakers in the Knesset to defect to the opposition. However, with Trump's win heralding closer ties between Netanyahu and the White House, many Likud politicians will likely reassess this option, calculating that Israel will gain more strategically by having Netanyahu remain prime minister, which in turn will benefit their careers. For similar reasons, Israeli voters who Gallant's ouster might have alienated are now also more likely to rally behind Netanyahu in the near term, seeing him as key to restoring close U.S.-Israel cooperation in the coming years. 

• Netanyahu's government currently has a 68-seat majority in Israel's 120-seat Knesset. This majority was buttressed with the recent entry of former Likud defector Gideon Saar, whose party brought an extra four seats to the government. 
• Netanyahu's public approval ratings have steadily improved in recent months amid Israel's tactical successes against Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as its direct strikes against Iran, throughout the summer and early fall. Netanyahu had previously been polling poorly for much of the year, due largely to his perceived failure to prevent Hamas' Oct. 7 assault.
• Israelis overwhelmingly supported Trump in the U.S. election, with 69% saying they preferred him over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in an October survey conducted by the Israeli broadcaster Channel 12.
• Trump reportedly told Netanyahu he wanted the Gaza war to be over ''by the time he enters office'' in January 2025, though a spokeswoman for Trump said on Nov. 7 that he also wanted to see the wars end with a decisive Israeli victory. In general, Trump has not overly defined his foreign policies, much like his first term. 
• Tensions between Netanyahu and Biden have stemmed from Israel's expansive military campaigns in Gaza, Lebanon and the greater region, which have repeatedly forced the United States to protect Israel from Iran and its proxies.

Trump's victory will also embolden the far-right Religious Zionism alliance, which will likely press the Israeli government to annex territory and expand Jewish settlements in the Palestinian territories. During his first term, Trump unveiled his ''2020 Vision for Peace'' plan for ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which heavily favored Israeli interests and suggested the United States would back Israel annexing significant parts of the West Bank. The presumptive return of this plan will thus embolden the far-right Religious Zionism alliance in Israel's government, which is led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. With 14 seats, the alliance has the power to collapse the ruling coalition, which it will leverage to push Netanyahu's government to formally annex portions of the West Bank that he promised back in 2020. Heartened by the election of a more like-minded U.S. president, the far-right parties will likely also use this leverage to push to steadily normalize the restoration of Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip, even if there is no formal policy declaring Israel is returning there. Additionally, with Ben-Gvir in control of the National Security portfolio and Smotrich in control of Israel's military authority governing the Palestinian territories (known as COGAT), the alliance will likely encourage the formation of illegal outposts in Gaza and the permanent displacement of Palestinians in areas sought by Jewish settlers. 

• Israeli settlers have been establishing illegal outposts in the West Bank for years and have steadily sought legalization statuses for these outposts as they become more developed. Under Biden, the United States has sanctioned some of these settler groups in an attempt to deter this behavior. But Trump has made no mention of sanctioning such settlers, nor has his base shown significant interest in the issue.
• Netanyahu's failure to annex the West Bank was partially what caused his government to collapse in 2021, which saw him ousted from power for over a year. The Israeli electorate's broader right-wing drift could make far-right parties more willing to collapse the government under the belief that new elections would still yield a government favorable to their demands, even if it does not include Netanyahu.
• While Trump complained about U.S. military aid for Ukraine on the campaign trail, he made less issue of U.S. aid for Israel or the United States' strident defense of the country in the past year, including in response to Iran's missile barrages in April and October. This suggests the incoming Trump administration will maintain a defensive policy and remain wary of regional entanglements. 

Far-right parties will also likely push the government to maintain maximalist demands in any cease-fire or peace talks, leaving Israel in open-ended conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon and throughout the region. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have repeatedly threatened to leave the government should it agree to a cease-fire with Hamas in the Gaza Strip that ensures anything less than the group's complete defeat. While their objectives have been less maximalist in Israel's war with Hezbollah, some of their supporters are increasingly talking about an open-ended campaign against the Lebanese militant group, to depopulate southern Lebanon and allow for the future establishment of Israeli settlements there. The far-right has also long pushed Israel to conduct strategic destruction operations against Iran's missile program and nuclear facilities, as well as attempt a regime-change campaign against the Islamic Republic. Center-right elements of the Israeli government, as well as the incoming Trump administration, would likely oppose such campaigns for fear of triggering a full-scale escalation of hostilities that envelops the Middle East in conflict and potentially disrupts global energy supplies; they could, however, back more targeted, open-ended campaigns that steadily wear down Iran and its proxies over time.

• Israel has been conducting an air campaign in Syria for over a decade against Iran and its proxies, normalizing regular military action there and showcasing Israel's willingness to maintain long-running if low-level operations. Before he was fired, former Defense Minister Gallant said Israel would continue to operate against Hezbollah even after it had completed ground operations in southern Lebanon, appearing to suggest that the IDF may replicate a version of its Syria strategy in Lebanon.
• Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran will remain politically and strategically incentivized to retaliate and conduct operations against Israel, even if they have a lower tempo than in the current phase of the regional conflict. They are also unlikely to agree to cease-fires that appear to give Israel permanent control of Gaza or freedom to operate in Lebanon or across the region. 
• Netanyahu remains unlikely to call early elections to weaken the far-right, as polls continue to suggest the opposition would readily capture a majority of seats. 

Finally, an escalation of Israeli far-right policies will likely raise the risk of a formal uprising in the West Bank by increasing the likelihood of annexation and dimming the prospects of a two-state solution. The Palestinian Authority (PA), which governs the West Bank, has so far managed to withstand popular outrage by maintaining pragmatic ties with Israel throughout the war in the Gaza Strip, which is governed by Hamas. But the PA will struggle to maintain cohesion as Israel's far-right policies impose de jure and de facto annexation and permanent Israeli control over key sections of the West Bank. Indeed, the governing body may find its security forces split or insubordinate in protest of the PA's continued cooperation with Israel. More far-right Israeli policies will also raise the prospect of Israeli outposts appearing in Gaza, which — combined with Israel's encroachment in the West Bank — will fuel open-ended violence from Palestinians in both of the territories. Without a cohesive security force in the Palestinian Authority, the security situation in the West Bank, in particular, could resemble a full-scale uprising akin to the Second Intifada of 2000 to 2005. Meanwhile, far-right Israelis' refusal to reach a comprehensive cease-fire with Hamas will leave Israel locked in an insurgent war with the Palestinian militant group, which will likely also take advantage of popular outrage over Israel's policies to recruit more fighters, particularly in the West Bank. 

• Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have attempted to block tax revenue to the PA, in part because the PA continues to provide payments to families of those killed fighting Israeli forces, and in part because the two far-right Israeli leaders both seek to eventually dissolve the PA in a prelude to wholesale annexation. Smotrich has used his current post as finance minister to hold up this revenue repeatedly.