Editor's note: This is the second installment of a two-part assessment examining the increased threats Paris and the surrounding areas will face amid the 2024 Summer Olympic Games. Part one discusses threats from opportunistic crime and protest activity, and part two focuses on extremist threats and cybercrime, as well as the security operation France is launching to counter these threats.

During the 2024 Summer Olympic Games, Paris will likely experience increased threats from terrorism and malicious cyber activities, and while a robust security presence will reduce these risks, it will also cause localized transport disruptions. The 2024 Summer Olympic Games will take place in Paris between July 26 and Aug. 11, drawing millions of visitors to the French capital. This high-profile event will present a tempting target for extremists and cybercrime groups, particularly amid high terrorism threat alerts and security concerns in several European countries amid rising geopolitical tensions worldwide. These risks will be highest during the most visible events, especially the opening ceremony. To counter these threats, as well as those discussed in the first part of this series, France is mobilizing an unprecedented security operation, which will reduce the aforementioned risks and help make significant incidents unlikely. However, travelers and those with business operations in and around Paris should remain aware of potential threats and their implications, as well as potential transportation disruptions and logistics issues related to increased security operations.

Likely small-scale attacks by small extremist cells and lone actors remain a threat to the Paris Games given Islamist extremists' long-standing enmity toward France, especially amid inflamed tensions stemming from the Israel-Hamas war. While no terrorist groups have publicly announced or indicated their specific intent to target the Paris Olympic Games, the event remains a potentially highly attractive target for violent extremist groups, to the point that authorities have said they consider it a priority concern. Anti-terrorism measures introduced in the wake of terrorist attacks over the past decade have bolstered the capabilities of French intelligence agencies and security forces and prevented the recurrence of major, foreign-directed terrorist attacks in France since the Islamic State's deadly November 2015 attacks in the capital. The heavy security presence in Paris (and generally around the country) during the event, as well as significantly degraded terrorist capabilities in recent years, will likely further limit the potential for such sophisticated, mass-casualty attacks around the Games, or at least significantly reduce their likelihood of success. Nevertheless, France continues to face sporadic smaller-scale (but still lethal) attacks by extremist small groups and lone actors — which authorities find more difficult to monitor and counter — and security forces' continued disruption of terrorist plots targeting various cities further underscores persistent risks of radicalization and attacks. And while Islamist extremists have long targeted France — which is seen as a symbol of Western secular liberalism in Europe — the ongoing Israel-Hamas war has significantly inflamed grievances among the country's Muslims, fueling anger at French and other European governments' response to the conflict, as well as antisemitism. Against this backdrop, risks of likely small-scale attacks will be heightened during the Olympic Games, especially given the high-profile nature of the event and the high number of foreign visitors expected in Paris. Attacks in recent years suggest violent extremists would likely attempt unsophisticated attacks like stabbings or vehicle rammings against soft targets and crowded places including shopping malls, tourist sites, major public transportation nodes and places of worship. Additionally, given France hosts Europe's largest Jewish and Muslim communities, grievances related to the Israel-Hamas war may also drive physical assaults or targeted attacks against Jewish or Muslim individuals or sites — especially if the conflict intensifies or otherwise prompts contentious developments. This means that travelers should remain aware of potential terrorism-related alerts from authorities and events that could inflame related risks, as well as exercise vigilance during their time in Paris, even though no specific terrorist threat against the Games has been reported. 

• France has been on its highest terrorist threat alert — "Emergency Attack" (Urgence Attentat) — since Oct. 13, 2023, when a French resident of Chechen origin with reported links to Islamist extremism killed a French teacher and wounded three other people in the city of Arras. While the motive for the attack has yet to be confirmed, it was conducted on the day former Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal called for Palestinian solidarity protests across the Muslim world and just days after Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, assault into southern Israel. 
• The most recent attack to occur in Paris was a Dec. 2, 2023, knife and hammer attack perpetrated by a French-Iranian man in the 15th arrondissement of Paris, by the Seine River near the Eiffel Tower in the center of the city. The attacker, who killed one person and injured two others in the attack, was previously arrested in 2016 for a failed knife attack in the Paris district of La Defense and had since remained on a terror watch list. 
• While the threat of more sophisticated attacks is comparatively limited, authorities in several European countries have in recent months disrupted several reported terrorist plots, many of which have been linked to the Islamic State's Afghanistan-based affiliate and other foreign militant groups. This includes a cross-border police operation in Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands in December 2023 that led to the arrests of seven people with suspected links to Hamas who had allegedly plotted attacks against Jewish targets across the Continent. Such activity indicates foreign terrorist organizations continue to plot attacks targeting Europe and that such risks are likely being further fueled by grievances related to the Israel-Hamas war. 

Based on past Olympic Games, a wide range of malicious cyber activities are expected to increase during and directly targeting the event, and current geopolitical tensions may lead to particularly disruptive forms of cyberattacks from state-sponsored actors and hacktivist groups, especially during the opening ceremony. The scale and visibility of the Olympics will make the event a prime target for a variety of malicious cyber actors, ranging from cybercriminals to hacktivists and state-sponsored actors. This diverse array of actors will likely seek to target the digital infrastructure and online presence of the Games, as well as the information systems involved in the management of its physical infrastructures, aiming to disrupt operations, steal sensitive data or cause reputational damage. Malicious cyber activity observed in prior Olympic games suggests that financially motivated attacks such as phishing and social engineering scams targeting attendees, as well as data theft and extortion through ransomware, pose the most likely threat. While damaging for their victims, these intrusion attempts tend to be of relatively low sophistication, suggesting such attacks would pose limited broader operational threats to the event itself. The second most likely cyber threat to the Games comes from attacks aimed at causing disruption, which could occur as a result of hacktivist or state-sponsored activities that target digital infrastructure such as via distributed denial of service, or DDoS, attacks or data wiper malware. State-sponsored groups often target the Olympics given the global significance of the event, both to collect intelligence and, depending on their relationship with the host country, to disrupt them and inflict reputational and/or financial damage. The same is true for politically motivated non-state actors, with hacktivism campaigns representing a growing threat to successive Olympics. The opening ceremony, the most viewed event of the Games, is usually the prime target of this sort of attack, both from state and non-state actors. The current geopolitical context, characterized by rising global tensions and ongoing open conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas wars, will further increase the likelihood of these types of attacks. Russian state-sponsored and hacktivist groups will very likely target the Paris Games and, possibly, its sponsors before and during the event. As seen in prior editions of the Olympics, they could deploy destructive malware against the event's information technology systems to disrupt the opening ceremony, phishing attacks targeting sponsors and participants, and DDoS attacks against the organizers and corporate sponsors' websites, causing temporary outages. Moreover, depending on the status of the war in Gaza by the start of the Games, as well as on France's official diplomatic stance on the conflict, politically motivated disruptive cyberattacks by pro-Palestinian hacktivists, as well as by state-sponsored groups of countries aligned with Palestinians (such as Iran) are also possible. Finally, the Games will offer an opportunity for foreign intelligence agencies to boost cyberespionage and surveillance activities on the event and its attendees. 

Cyber Threats That Could Target the 2024 Paris Olympics

• Phishing/Smishing and Social Engineering: Threat actors may attempt to trick athletes, staff or spectators into divulging personal or financial information through deceptive emails, messages or fake websites/QR codes containing luring subject lines or titles related to the Olympics.
• Ransomware: Ransomware will likely target various stakeholders of the Olympics. The importance of the event and the pressure on the organizers to make sure the Games run smoothly (including service continuity and information system availability) may increase victims' willingness to pay ransom requests and, in turn, further incentivize widespread ransomware campaigns.
• DDoS Attacks and Website Defacements: These attacks would aim to overwhelm or vandalize the Games' or its sponsors' websites, making them unavailable to users and potentially disrupting online registration activities.
• Disinformation Campaigns: Russian actors have already been observed spreading disinformation aimed at disrupting the Games, such as the narrative of a bed-bug infestation of Paris unveiled in October 2023. 
• Cyberespionage and Surveillance: Delegations with high-profile individuals (e.g., corporate executives, diplomats and political leaders) who could represent a potential target for foreign intelligence services will attend the event. Threat actors may also aim to gather intelligence on the security arrangements and other sensitive information related to the Games themselves. This kind of campaign may occur through targeted social engineering campaigns or via more complex software supply chain compromises. 
• Cyberattacks on IT Infrastructure: The Games' IT systems, including those handling ticketing, press operations, stadium entry controls and the broadcasting of events, are potential targets. Attacks could lead to disruptions, the destruction of critical data, and delays or interruptions in the Games' proceedings.

While France's robust security measures will limit most of the risks discussed in both parts of this analysis, they will also contribute to localized travel disruptions. France's security measures involve the deployment of thousands of police officers, military personnel and private security guards across Paris; increased intelligence sharing with other European countries; the reinstatement of border controls for the duration of the event; and the use of advanced surveillance technologies. Despite heightened risks, French authorities have so far not warned of any specific and credible threats against the city or the Games. Moreover, the extensive security measures — including the presence of tens of thousands of police officers and military personnel, as well as the deployment of large-scale surveillance technologies such as real-time algorithmic video surveillance — will significantly constrain heightened threats surrounding the Games. Still, enhanced security measures such as traffic restrictions and security cordons, coupled with the complicated logistics of the event and the massive influx of visitors expected in Paris, will likely also lead to localized travel disruptions. Such measures and consequent travel disruptions will likely be most severe in the city center, public transport hubs such as the Gare du Nord and Saint-Lazare train stations, and at key locations for sporting events, such as the Stade de France, Jardins du Trocadero and the Seine River. Authorities' increased scrutiny of arrivals to the city may also prompt limited congestion and processing delays at railways, airports and border crossings. Enhanced security procedures at stadiums and other sporting venues linked to the games will also likely increase bottlenecks of fans and lengthen wait times to access these locations.