While Chile's upcoming constitutional referendum is unlikely to drastically change the country's socio-economic model, it highlights ideological divisions that will create long-term political and economic uncertainty in the country. On Dec. 17, Chile will hold a mandatory referendum to approve a new constitution, its second such referendum in two years. Millions of voters will decide whether to adopt a controversial document written by a majority right-wing Constitutional Council. After five months of drafting, the council delivered the final draft to President Gabriel Boric on Nov. 6. The document has faced criticism for including business-friendly economic policies similar to the current constitution, as well as controversial articles that could further restrict abortion access in Chile and expel thousands of illegal immigrants from the country. According to CADEM polling released on Nov. 12, only 32% of Chileans plan to vote in favor of the new constitution while 50% plan to reject it, with the remaining 18% of voters still undecided. Only a simple majority is needed to approve the draft.

• In 2019, mass anti-government protests prompted then-President Sebastian Pinera to call a referendum on whether Chile should replace its current constitution, which was established in 1980 under General Augusto Pinochet's military dictatorship. An overwhelming 78% of Chileans voted in favor of drafting a new constitution in the 2020 referendum, kicking off the rewrite process. 
• In the first constitutional referendum held in September 2022, 62% of Chilean voters rejected a draft document written by a popularly elected, left-leaning body. The proposed charter was widely perceived as too radically left-wing, with articles requiring legislation to protect land and water rights and decreasing private sector control over the mining sector. Critics also argued that the document's vague language made it impossible to implement. The draft constitution's rejection was widely viewed as a blow to the leftist Boric government. 
• During the May 7, 2023 constitutional council election, the far-right Republican Party and the center-right Safe Chile secured a veto-proof three-fifths majority. This enabled them to approve articles in the new constitution without any support from the left-wing Unity for Chile alliance, which received only 27.7% of the May 2023 vote. Unity for Chile's loss was most likely due to a mixture of voter apathy and low support for left-wing President Boric amid economic grievances and widespread concern with rising crime rates in the country. 

The approval of the new constitution would trigger protests, but also secure the continuity of Chile's pro-business policies. If polls are proven wrong and a majority of voters approve the new constitution, it would likely trigger left-wing demonstrations in Santiago and other major cities, creating safety risks from street clashes and transportation disruptions. Because the proposed document was drafted by political parties that were initially opposed to the constitutional rewrite process, the text itself is similar to Chile's current constitution, retaining the document's pro-business character that has long defined Chilean policy. The draft constitution enshrines similar free market policies, decreasing the risk of significant changes to business operations in Chile — a major concern over the 2022 constitution draft. The new draft also maintains the current constitution's ''subsidiary state'' model, allowing for the private healthcare, education and pension systems that left-wing protesters rallied against in 2019. Still, the new draft includes several articles that could create challenges if it's ratified. One article, for example, establishes around 20 new state bodies, the majority of which would supervise or balance against current bodies. This could potentially increase bureaucratic hurdles to policymaking and implementation. Another article requires that irregular migrants be expelled from Chile in the shortest time period possible. Chile is home to hundreds of thousands of migrants who have arrived since 2017, mostly from Venezuela. The expulsion of thousands who entered the country illegally (many of whom have arrived in the last year) could trigger humanitarian crises elsewhere in Latin America.

• Left-wing protests have declined in size since 2019. But even smaller protests in recent years have included clashes between protesters and police and looting against businesses in Santiago. During a march in September to commemorate the 50-year anniversary of Chile's 1973 coup, a small group of protesters clashed with police and attacked government buildings. 
• Though President Boric's Unity for Chile party has expressed opposition to the constitution, he himself has not expressed an opinion aside from asserting his commitment to implementing the charter if it is approved. The Boric administration is thus unlikely to stand in the way of the constitution's implementation if voters approve the document on Dec. 17.
• The new constitution also includes an article stating that ''the law protects the life of the unborn,'' which reproductive rights activists have warned could make abortion fully illegal in Chile. The wording reflects the language used in the current constitution.
• Additionally, the draft enshrines Chile's welfare system, which is a long-standing goal of left-wing parties. But critics note that the absence of articles defining what this requires of the government means that it does little to actively affirm the country's welfare system. 

The rejection of the constitution, by contrast, would see Chile abandon its push to adopt a new charter, limiting the likelihood of significant structural changes in the coming years. President Boric and members of his government have repeatedly said that if voters reject the latest draft, his administration will not promote a third constitutional rewrite. These statements are nonbinding, so if there are significant calls for a third drafting process in the near term, the Boric administration could walk back its position and support a new attempt, though popular apathy with the four-year-long constitutional rewrite process will limit the chances of such a development. This means that while the mandate from the 2020 referendum to draft a new constitution remains, there may not be another redrafting effort until after Boric leaves office in 2026 (Chilean presidents are not eligible for consecutive terms). Regardless, if the new constitution is rejected, the current one will remain in place for the foreseeable future. While this will limit the potential for a significant structural changes (like those outlined in the first draft proposed in 2022), it will also allow many of the current processes that have fueled popular grievances to remain in place, which may trigger additional left-wing protests in the coming years. Still, less focus on rewriting the constitution may enable the left-wing Boric administration to turn its attention toward policymaking — albeit within the confines of Chile's current business-friendly constitution — for the remainder of his term. 

Beyond the referendum, the constitutional drafting processes have illuminated deep-seated ideological questions in Chile, which will be at the forefront of elections in 2024 and 2025, creating political and economic uncertainties over the long term. For many Chileans, the purpose of the constitutional rewrite process was to move the country out of the shadow of its 17-year military dictatorship — both by attempting to remove its economic model and by symbolically coming to terms with its human rights abuses. The two attempts to draft a replacement constitution have underscored deep ideological divisions over the country's business-friendly environment, as well as what rights the country's Indigenous peoples should have, how to respond to rising violent crime, and how to address human rights abuses under the dictatorship. As the country moves past its constitutional rewrite processes (one way or another), the coming years will see rival political factions continue to compete over the answers to these questions. These conflicts will play out in the October 2024 municipal elections and will again come to the forefront ahead of the November-December 2025 general elections. During these elections, the far-right Republican Party under Jose Antonio Kast will argue for a crackdown on crime, immigration, and violent protests by left-wing and Indigenous groups. Meanwhile, members of Boric's left-wing Social Convergence party and allied parties will argue for more welfare programs, greater environmental regulation, and the full or partial nationalization of Chile's critical resources (particularly copper and lithium). Wide-ranging views on these issues will leave the country's political, economic and social future very much in question over the coming years, which means that regulatory uncertainties for organizations in the mining, agriculture and manufacturing sectors will also persist.