What We're Tracking

A presidential recall referendum in Mexico. Mexico will hold a controversial recall referendum on April 10 that President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador organized as a public litmus check halfway through his six-year term. With an approval rating of nearly 60%, Lopez Obrador is widely expected to win the vote. But on the off chance he loses, the referendum is still unlikely to draw enough participation to be legally binding. Lopez Obrador will likely use the referendum to bolster his own policy mandate, including his proposal to replace Mexico's National Electoral Institute (which he's accused of being corrupt against him) with a new electoral authority. This controversial electoral reform has raised concerns that Lopez Obrador will seek to use the new electoral body to skirt term limits in order to seek reelection in 2024.

Russia's offensive in eastern Ukraine. Russia will continue repositioning forces withdrawn from northern Ukraine to the areas of southern and eastern Ukraine that it has already seized. The repositioning is part of Russia's ongoing offensive intended to encircle or destroy the remaining Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas region and threaten key Ukrainian cities such as Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Russia will also reinforce its units defending Kherson and continue missile strikes on key Ukrainian infrastructure and industry, degrading Ukraine's ability to sustain an effective defense. 

France's presidential election. France will hold the first round of its presidential election on April 10 and, according to opinion polls, it will be a close race between incumbent president Emmanuel Macron and right-wing leader Marine Le Pen. Voter turnout could prove crucial, as Macron's camp has been urging people to vote to prevent a victory by Le Pen. The two top candidates will face each other in the runoff election on April 24, which once again is expected to be a close contest between Macron and Le Pen. While a Le Pen presidency would probably not result in France's exit from the European Union, it would severely disrupt the EU policymaking process as Paris would be more willing to act unilaterally and challenge the bloc.

A key India-U.S. strategic meeting. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will host Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh on April 11 for a 2+2 strategic dialogue to review bilateral cooperation on foreign policy, defense and security, among other issues. The meeting, which will commemorate 75 years of India-U.S. diplomatic relations, comes amid increased U.S. and Western pressure on India to take a tougher stance against Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Against this backdrop, there could be discussions about the India-U.S. defense partnership and alternatives to reduce India's dependence on Russian arms.

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