Can Europe Save the Holidays From COVID-19?

A pedestrian wearing a face mask walks past Christmas-themed window displays inside Burlington Arcade in London, the United Kingdom, on Nov. 23, 2020.

(TOLGA AKMEN/AFP via Getty Images)

A pedestrian wearing a face mask walks past Christmas-themed window displays in London, the United Kingdom, on Nov. 23, 2020.

European governments will soften some lockdown measures for the holiday season in an effort to boost domestic consumption and reduce the probability of social unrest. Their plans to start distributing COVID-19 vaccines in early 2021, meanwhile, will also face significant logistical obstacles. The reintroduction of lockdown and social distancing measures in Europe in October and November has had a negative impact on economic activity, increasing the probability of countries once more falling into recessions. Governments across the Continent hope that a softening of these measures during the holiday season will lead to stronger economic activity. They also fear that banning people from meeting during the holidays will spur more social unrest.

On Nov. 24, French President Emmanuel Macron said that non-essential shops will be allowed to reopen on Nov. 28, just in time for the Christmas shopping period. Macron also said that the night curfew will be relaxed on Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve and that people will be allowed to travel between regions for the holidays.
On Nov. 23, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the national lockdown in England will end on Dec. 2 and will be replaced with a three-tier system of restrictions.
Germany’s federal government is working with regional governments to soften social distancing restrictions between Dec. 23 and Jan. 1.
In Spain, regional governments have announced plans to allow people to meet during the holidays, as well as to reduce the duration of the night curfew. Some regions such as Catalonia have recently authorized the reopening of bars and restaurants.
Italy’s lockdown is scheduled to end on Dec. 3. The government in Rome is expected to announce softer measures starting on Dec. 4.
In recent weeks, there have been several protests against lockdown measures in countries such as Italy, Spain and Germany.

An ongoing dispute between EU governments is blocking the disbursement of much-needed relief funds, which could further undermine the economic recovery of the continent. Unless the dispute is solved during an EU summit in mid-December, these funds may not be available as planned in early 2021. In early November, the governments of Poland and Hungary blocked the approval of the European Union’s 1.1 trillion euro budget for 2021-2027 and its 750 billion euro COVID-19 recovery fund, because the plans include a mechanism to link the disbursement of money to keeping a strong rule of law. Any delays in the implementation of these funds will delay the disbursement of much-needed funds, which would be particularly negative for southern EU member states that have been hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 crisis.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Nov. 24 that he is "confident" the EU will find a solution to the budget disputes. According to Mass, a solution should be found in time for the next EU Council, which will take place on Dec. 11-12.
In Poland, the opposition is warning that Poland could leave or be expelled from the European Union if the ongoing confrontation between Warsaw and Western European governments continued. But on Nov. 24, Poland’s foreign affairs minister, Zbigniew Rau, said such an idea was "absurd."

Vaccination programs in the coming months should help European governments progressively soften their social distancing measures. But some lockdown restrictions will probably remain in place, which will continue to undermine economic activity. In recent months, the European Commission and national governments have signed contracts with the main producers of COVID-19 vaccines. While many of the vaccines have shown high degrees of efficacy, they are all still pending approval from regulating authorities. Even when a vaccine becomes available, European countries will face logistical challenges because the vaccines will need to be produced, distributed, stored (some at extremely cold temperatures), and provided to millions of people across the Continent. This will result in an uneven process across Europe that creates differences in vaccine distribution, even between regions in each country. National governments will also need to work on a communication program, as some sectors of the population are skeptical of the new vaccines.

German Health Minister Jens Spahn said on Nov. 22 that he has asked the country’s regional governments to have their vaccination centers ready by mid-December, and that vaccinations could start before the end of the year.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced on Nov. 22 that the country will start a comprehensive vaccination program in January, including 13,000 vaccination points, and that a “substantial” part of the population will be vaccinated by mid-2021.
U.K. Health Secretary Matt Hancock said on Nov. 23 that people could receive a vaccine as soon as December and that “sometime after Easter” things “will be able to start to get back to normal.”