Hong Kong’s September Legislative Council elections may be postponed amid the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, which would help the city’s pro-Beijing ruling party maintain control and remove a near-term focal point for protests. But a long delay could also reignite the opposition by creating a legislative vacuum and removing a legal way for citizens to express their level of satisfaction with the government. On July 28, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam met with elements of the Executive Council to discuss a potential delay to the legislative elections, but put off a final decision until after election nominations close at the end of the week. 

• The election could reportedly be delayed anywhere between several months to a full year, with some elements of the ruling camp backing the longer postponement. 
• Pro-democracy politicians have already accused the pro-Beijing camp of using a delay to hold on to power and facilitate a pro-Beijing agenda. The opposition pro-democracy camp had claimed it could gain a majority in the Legislative Council this election, building on a wave of dissatisfaction with the way Hong Kong’s new national security law was passed. 

Lam and the pro-Beijing camp may hope that a delayed election would help create further emotional distance from the new security law, as well as also offer more time for an economic recovery in both mainland China and Hong Kong to temper any potential business community support for the opposition camp. But a long delay could easily backfire, should it be perceived as merely a pretext to solidify a pro-Beijing agenda and further erode Hong Kong’s special status. The September elections are a key benchmark in the direction of Hong Kong politics, both in the outcome of the election and as a measure of social protest. The new national security and the resurgent COVID-19 pandemic have curtailed major demonstrations in Hong Kong, but have not undermined support for the pro-democracy camp, as evidenced by the high voter turnout at the recent opposition party primaries.