High voter turnout in Hong Kong's opposition primary demonstrates the pro-democracy camp's continued momentum toward a strong showing for the city's September legislative election. Despite fears of low turnout amid the draconian national security law, Hong Kong's July 11-12 unofficial pro-democratic primary attracted 610,000 voters — 13.8 percent of the city's electorate and in excess of the 170,000-person target. The strong public mandate will help the opposition winnow down the normally massive pool of candidates in order to avoid splitting the vote to the advantage of pro-Beijing opponents. Instead of exerting a chilling effect on politics in the city, it also appears that the new national security law has galvanized the opposition, which bodes well for electoral turnout in September.

However, newly empowered Hong Kong authorities are already moving to create a highly restrictive political environment that could sharply limit the ability for even a pro-democracy legislature to meaningfully challenge Beijing. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam warned July 13 that the opposition's so-called "35-plus" plan to secure a legislative majority and obstruct policymaking may run afoul of the national security law's provisions on subverting state power. Her warning echoes similar remarks made by Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang last week. 

• On July 10, Hong Kong police raided the offices of and seized computers from the pro-democratic primaries' co-organizer, the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute. This may have been linked to allegations about earlier leaks of police personal information, but the timing suggests an intention to intimidate. 
• The 13 organizers of the June 4 Tiananmen Square anniversary protests appeared in court on July 13, facing charges of inciting unlawful assembly with the prospect of a five-year prison sentence. Although this trial is not related to the new national security law, it suggests a hardline approach. 
• With COVID-19 cases surging, Hong Kong authorities tightened limits on public gatherings back to four people, down from the 50 allowed earlier. The enhanced pandemic control measures will increase government powers to crack down on protests. 

The next phase in Hong Kong's political crisis will see continued confrontations between the opposition and authorities ahead of the September election. Initial primary results suggest that moderate pan-democrats may have lost ground to more radical localist challengers, who advocate for a more confrontational approach towards Beijing's encroachment into Hong Kong. Authorities will prefer to avoid the need for a high-profile demonstration of their new national security law powers, hoping instead for a quiet street dynamic and a strong showing at the polls for pro-Beijing candidates. The opposition, however, might force their hand. While pro-Beijing leaders might be able to strike a compromise with moderates, a strong showing for the localists would raise the stakes of the election for the central government. This could result in a crackdown on the opposition ahead of polls to weed out challengers, and could also bring post-election opportunities for the use of the national security law to neutralize disruptive legislative tactics.