The Chinese central government is adopting a more rapid and aggressive approach to its proposed national security law in Hong Kong that will erode the city's autonomy from the mainland. On June 20, Chinese state-run media released new details about Beijing's proposed Hong Kong national security legislation following the conclusion of a National People's Congress Standing Committee session. The Standing Committee will now hold a June 28-30 special meeting, raising the possibility of the law's passage before the July 1 anniversary of the 1997 British handover of Hong Kong. 

As written, the current draft of the law grants Beijing a greater supervisory role over national security inside of Hong Kong with measures that were on the more assertive end of the spectrum of potential options. 

• The central government will establish a dedicated office within the city itself that will be largely focused on analyzing and collecting intelligence on national security crimes, while providing opinions on major strategies to local authorities. The office's mainland agents, however, will still be required to abide by local Hong Kong law. 
• But the national security law will also preempt local legislation in cases of overlap or conflict, and enables the Chinese government to override Hong Kong's legal system in as-yet ambiguous "specific circumstances" as well. This means ambiguities in jurisdiction will provide further opportunities for Beijing to wade in as needed. 

The tough penalties for convictions outlined in the new law will have a chilling effect on unrest in Hong Kong by allowing pro-Beijing forces inside the city to more easily crack down on dissent. 

• Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam will establish a dedicated committee responsible for maintaining national security that will accept the "supervision and accountability" of the central government, with a seat set aside for a Beijing-appointed advisor. 
• Lam will also select a pool of current or former judges to handle these national security cases, which will essentially serve as a special court system partly distinct from Hong Kong's mainstream system. The new security legislation, however, still includes provisions on abiding by the city's common law principles including the presumption of innocence, as well as the freedom of expression, press, publication, association and assembly. 
• Hong Kong's city police and department of justice will both be tasked with setting up dedicated national security units to enforce the law. 
• Leaks cited by the South China Morning Post indicate that suspects arrested under the law could be held in special detention centers for indefinite periods of time, similar to Singapore's Internal Security Act. According to Hong Kong's sole delegate to China's Standing Committee, those convicted under the law could also face prison sentences of up to 10 years. 
• The Hong Kong government will increase efforts to monitor national security and prevent terrorism at schools and universities, in particular, suggesting a strong focus on these hotbeds of dissent.

The swift implementation of the law ahead of September legislative elections risks provoking more demonstrations on Hong Kong's streets, as well as public backlash against pro-Beijing politicians at the polls. China's sweeping new powers under the national security law, however, may dampen overall protest turnout, especially combined with the city's lingering COVID-19 restrictions. Those still willing to take to the streets despite the increased risk of being arrested will thus likely be the more radical protesters, justifying a crackdown. Any use of the new security law by Hong Kong authorities will risk accelerating U.S. penalties against the city as well, with a likely focus on sanctions and trade measures.