(Stratfor)

Two months after the polls in Kenya's presidential election closed, the results still threaten to throw the country into chaos. After Kenya's Aug. 8 election became tainted by irregularities and accusations of fraud, the Kenyan Supreme Court made a landmark decision Sept. 1 to annul the results and hold a do-over on Oct. 26. Perennial presidential candidate Raila Odinga, age 72, was given a second shot at winning what would no doubt be his last presidential election, but he has now pulled out of the race. Odinga, the opposition candidate of the National Super Alliance (NASA), said the government failed to improve its handling of the upcoming election and that he would not stay in a rigged race.

Odinga's decision to pull out of the race comes several weeks after he threatened to boycott the election repeat if his demands were not met for changes at the body tasked with overseeing the election, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC). Among other things, Odinga demanded the replacement of several commission members perceived to have had a hand in Aug. 8 election irregularities. Odinga dug himself into a bit of a hole, spending months railing against election rigging prior to the Aug. 8 election. At this point it is unclear whether the ruling party and the government can — or even want to — reverse the decision by appeasing the candidate.

If the election proceeds without Odinga — and therefore with President Kenyatta as the sole candidate — then the president's second term will surely be marred by claims of illegitimacy. Alternatively, the election could be delayed yet again as international actors press for a negotiated settlement. However, that could lead Kenya into a constitutional crisis as it attempts to navigate the disparate demands and avoid potential post-election violence. If Odinga still does not feel that his demands are being met or heard, he and his allies could retreat to their western strongholds to start a movement against the presidential administration they believe to be fraudulent. That movement could be solely political, but it could also become militant. The Kenyan electoral drama looks set to continue for some time to come, but battles in the courts are still a step up for a country used to seeing its elections end with murder in the streets.

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