On the heels of the Kenyan Supreme Court's ruling, which annulled the recent presidential election, the country's Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) has announced that the new election will be held on Oct. 17. The IEBC also declared that President Uhuru Kenyatta and his principal rival, Raila Odinga, will be the only candidates on the ballot. The rerun means that Odinga will have another chance at the presidential office, and to make sure that this time around the election isn't held under a suspicious cloud of irregularities and delays.
To that end, Odinga and his National Super Alliance political coalition have made various demands and are threatening to boycott the election if they aren't met. Because the Supreme Court cited widespread failure to conduct the first election in a constitutional manner in its decision to throw out the results, Odinga's demands involve the jurisdiction of the IEBC. Odinga has said that he wants to the IEBC to ensure "legal and constitutional guarantees." Odinga has also demanded that at least six of the IEBC commissioners be removed. Finally, he has requested access to the commission’s election voting and results system, which were both called into question during and after the Aug. 8 election.
It may be hard to meet Odinga's ultimatums. For example, IEBC commissioners are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Kenyan Parliament. They are considered non-partisan, independent and protected by law: The government can't remove them easily. Those reasons alone may prevent Kenyatta from being able to make any changes at the IEBC. Consequently, it remains to be seen how much the government will concede to the Odinga campaign, if it makes any concessions at all.
Odinga's brinkmanship will be difficult for Kenyatta to ignore. Should Odinga feel that his demands are not sufficiently met in the weeks ahead, a potential boycott could ensure a tarnished and illegitimate victory for Kenyatta, which would again increase the chance for civil strife between ethnic factions and undermine Kenya's economy. In the meantime, the frantic political wrangling in Kenya will continue.
