Turkish-Israeli relations deteriorated rapidly in the wake of the May 2010 Israeli raid on the Turkish-flagged vessel Mavi Marmara, which was part of a flotilla intent on breaking a blockade on the Gaza Strip. The death of ten Turks during the raid prompted a strong nationalist reaction from Ankara. The Turkish government withdrew its ambassador to Israel and expelled the Israeli ambassador from Turkey. A U.N. commission concluded in 2011 that Israel's naval blockade of Gaza was legal and appropriate, but that Israeli commandos used excessive and unreasonable force when boarding the flotilla. For its part, Ankara demanded an official apology from Israel, compensation for the victims' families and that the blockade on Gaza be lifted. But without Israel's full compliance, the diplomatic freeze continued.
The Middle East has dramatically changed since the flotilla incident. Stratfor has charted the improving Turkish-Israel dialogue as both countries attempt to resolve their diplomatic crisis. Progress has been made since 2013, when Israel officially apologized to Turkey and secret meetings began. A reconciliation between the two erstwhile allies is inevitable. Turkey has found itself in an increasingly difficult region, surrounded by acrimonious neighbors. And on top of everything else, Ankara must now consider the possibility of replacing its natural gas supply from Russia if relations with Moscow deteriorate. Israel is facing mounting violence within it borders as well as an increasingly weak Palestinian Authority, in part as a result of pressure from Hamas. Now is not the time for either country to dig in their heels and reject a beneficial strategic partnership.
Within the terms of a proposed reconciliation, Turkey would have to tackle terrorist activities inside its territory and, in line with this, expel Hamas leader Salah Aruri. To address Turkey's energy concerns, immediate negotiations will be opened on the sale of natural gas from Israel to Turkey and a natural gas pipeline will be constructed. Israel will compensate the flotilla victims' families, and Turkey will not press charges against Israel Defense Forces personnel involved in the flotilla incident.
That Turkey has dropped the issue of Israel's blockade on Gaza is evidence of the region's turmoil, and Turkey's need for a rapprochement with its historic partner. Included below is a chronology of Stratfor analyses since 2013, in anticipation of an imminent Israel-Turkish rapprochement.
Turkey, Israel: A Slow, Steady Strengthening of Ties
Sept. 3, 2015: On June 26, Stratfor published an article predicting that regional developments were bringing Israeli and Turkish interests into greater alignment. The leading indicator behind that forecast was a secret meeting between the director general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, Dore Gold, and the undersecretary in the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Feridun Sinirlioglu. In the past week, additional signs have indicated that the rapprochement is continuing apace. Read the full Geopolitical Diary here.
Turkey and Israel: An Inevitable Reconciliation
June 26, 2015: Israel and Turkey may once again be taking steps toward repairing their relationship, which has been damaged since the Mavi Marmara flotilla incident in May 2010. On June 22, Haaretz reported that the new director general of the Israeli Foreign Ministry, Dore Gold, met in Rome with an undersecretary in the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Feridun Sinirlioglu. The pair reportedly discussed mending ties between their countries, something that the Israeli and Turkish governments have tried several times to achieve over the past five years. Israel in particular maintains a deep interest in improving its relations with Turkey, while the weak performance of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) in recent elections may have cleared some of the obstacles preventing the two countries from burying the hatchet. Though Israel and Turkey still must overcome a significant amount of inertia to fully revive their relationship, the two share too many common interests to remain at odds over the long term. Read the full analysis here.
In Israel, a New Government Adjusts to New Priorities
May 7, 2015: After nearly two months of negotiations following general elections, Israel is finally set to form its new government. On May 6, a few hours before a legally mandated deadline for forming a coalition, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came to an agreement for the creation of a ruling coalition. With only 61 of the legislature's 120 seats, this coalition will be both weak and unstable. The new government will also be more conservative than Netanyahu's previous government, making the reversal of earlier domestic reforms and tension between member parties equally likely. Coupled with an isolated Hamas, a less active United States and more prominent regional powers, including Iran and Saudi Arabia, Israel's new government will have many challenges to grapple with in a dramatically changing environment. Read the full analysis here.
U.S. Diplomacy Tries to Break Turkish Isolation
Nov. 24, 2014: U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will arrive in Turkey on Nov. 21 for another attempt at wedging Turkey back into a Cold War alliance structure. He will not come away from Ankara satisfied. Despite a number of underlying interests shared by Ankara and Washington, the United States will struggle to shape a common policy with an assertive Turkey steeped in Ottoman legacy. Read the full analysis here.
Turkey and Israel May Reconcile After Years of Tension
April 2, 2014: An energy pipeline project under consideration could help Turkey and Israel renew their partnership after years of strain. On March 23, Israeli financial daily Globes announced that more than 10 companies had submitted bids for the tender of a proposed undersea pipeline that would export natural gas from Israel's offshore Leviathan field to southern Turkey. The statement came shortly before Today's Zaman reported a meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's personal envoy for energy and security issues, David Meidan, and the chief of Turkey's National Intelligence Organization, Hakan Fidan, in which both parties reportedly agreed to work toward reopening embassies and normalizing relations, which have been fraught since the 2010 flotilla incident that left several Turks dead. Read the full analysis here.
Regional Developments Are Pulling Israel and Turkey Together
Dec. 5, 2013: With the U.S.-Iranian rapprochement and a sectarian conflict brewing to its north in Syria, Israel will likely work closely with Turkey and Saudi Arabia in an attempt to secure its interests. Given that Israel has not normalized relations with Saudi Arabia, that track will probably be pursued behind the scenes. However, Israel can work much more robustly with Turkey, despite the rupture in relations since the 2010 flotilla incident. For its part, Turkish regional interests have been set back by the rise of jihadism in Syria and the eclipse of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt — events that have forced Ankara to adjust its attitude toward Israel. Read the full analysis here.
Israeli and Turkish Intelligence Chiefs Meet
June 13, 2015: Leaked news of a meeting between intelligence chiefs from two diplomatically estranged countries in the Middle East seems bewildering at first — but reveals much upon further examination. Daily newspaper Hurriyet ran a story June 11 that claimed Israeli Mossad chief Tamir Pardo and Hakan Fidan, undersecretary of Turkey's National Intelligence Organization, or MIT, held a meeting on June 10 in Ankara. The next day, the newspaper's English-language version, the Hurriyet Daily News, ran a similar version of the story. Read the full Geopolitical Diary here.
