With South African's economy in recession and barely growing, the ANC may have trouble preserving its hold on majority power at the national level — though its broad support base will ensure it remains a governing party. Friendly as it is with labor groups such as the National Union of Mineworkers and the South African Communist Party, it is far from the only voice on the political left. In fact, one challenger in next year's elections will be the upstart far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). With a pan-African, nationalist and anti-imperialist platform, the EFF may be able to garner support among semi-urban and underemployed manual labor voters who want the government to take a stronger pro-labor, leftist-nationalist stand and implement policies favoring wealth and land redistribution.

Those issues will be particularly salient next year. South Africa's mining unions in June entered a new session of wage negotiations with mining companies that have continued without resolution for several months, though without resorting to strikes. In 2014, negotiations led to a five-month strike that caused considerable disruptive shocks to an already struggling economy. This year, South Africa is hardly in a position to withstand another test of the industry that serves as the country's economic backbone. Currently its economy is registering growth of less than one percent for the year. At the same time, the slump in emerging market stocks that prompted massive selloffs starting in September, along with decreased demand for commodities exports and low commodity prices, has hit South Africa hard. Regardless of which party captures the most seats in the legislature next year, economic policies will be center stage during the campaign season.

But even though the recession stirs up more leftist sentiment among the public who are generally unemployed and underemployed, the EFF does not have the reach to seriously threaten the ANC's majority in parliament. Its support base will likely stay confined to the semi-urban settlements where mineworkers and other manual laborers have historically lived, such as Johannesburg's Soweto township. Without regional breadth to meaningfully exceed the 10 percent voter share it currently holds, the EFF may retain its status as the third-largest party in the South African legislature but likely will not dominate in the 2019 elections. None of the leftist groups, the EFF included, possess an organizational capability to seriously challenge an entrenched powerhouse like the ANC.

The real threat to South African's ruling party, then, is not the nationalists from the left but the centrists, mainly the opposition Democratic Alliance party. The Democratic Alliance is increasingly appealing to urban middle class black voters who want Pretoria to provide pro-growth policies, quality professional jobs, reliable services, better education and more visible benefits in return for the taxes they pay. The ANC does not really meet these aspirations, instead promoting the interests of the impoverished majority. Yet middle class black voters are a substantial swathe of the populace: there are an estimated five million in the country. However, roughly 3 million of this group are actually state employees, including teachers, hospital workers, local bureaucrats, and employees of state-owned industries who will likely stay loyal to the ANC because of its long history of defending the black majority. The remaining 2 million could vote for the Democratic Alliance, but in the last elections the opposition was only able to win about a quarter to half of their votes.

Ultimately, the Democratic Alliance is unlikely to completely upset the ruling ANC. It could win control of Pretoria's municipal government, however, which would be a significant victory and symbolic loss for the ANC. The Democratic Alliance may even garner enough support in certain metro areas and use these wins as a platform to whittle down the ANC majority to less than 50 percent for the 2019 national elections. And while that would not be an unequivocal victory for the centrists, it could force parties to form a governing coalition. Ultimately, though, the absence of a clear majority winner at the 2019 elections could slow the efficient delivery of public services to the South African public. As we have seen in Greece and Italy, a weak coalition may simply amount to an ineffective government. And given South Africa's economic challenges, this is no time for political deadlock.