Editor's Note: Stratfor closely monitors conflict zones from a geopolitical perspective. What is perhaps the most volatile conflict today can be found in the territories of Iraq and Syria that are controlled by the Islamic State. Though these areas are cartographically distinct, they are functionally linked: Sunni tribal structures, rebel operations, Kurdish interests, external influences and the suzerainty of the Islamic State bind them together as a single, coherent theater.
The Islamic State capitalized on the chaos of the Syrian civil war and the inadequacy of Iraqi security forces to take over a large swath of the Middle East. After making some impressive gains, including the taking of the Iraqi city of Mosul, the Islamic State now finds itself in an increasingly difficult position, against which a wide array of opponents are aligned. Nonetheless, the group is uniquely resilient and, as such, remains extremely dangerous and unpredictable.
In addition to examining the combatants inside the Syria-Iraq battlespace, Stratfor also tracks the political machinations, negotiations and goals outside the battlespace, including in Iran, Russia, the Gulf monarchies and the United States. For the first time, in routinely updated monthly installments Stratfor is covering the gains, losses and extent of the Islamic State's so-called caliphate.
July 31
Syria
Fighter jets, thought to be part of the U.S.-led alliance, targeted the al Qaeda-linked group Jabhat al-Nusra near the town of Azaz, north of Aleppo. Meanwhile, the United States denied reports July 30 that rebels it had trained were kidnapped by the jihadist group, Naharnet reported. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights had said earlier that Jabhat al-Nusra kidnapped at least eight members of a U.S.-trained rebel unit. According to the Pentagon, none of 54 graduates of the U.S. training program, known as the New Syrian Force, have been kidnapped.
Analysis: The past three years have been heady times for Syria's Kurds. Since forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al Assad withdrew from the northeast in July 2012, the Kurds have enjoyed more autonomy than at any other time in recent history. Presiding over this autonomous region is the Democratic Union Party (PYD), a Kurdish political party founded in the wake of 2004 riots in the majority Kurdish city of Qamishli. The PYD's primary objective is to attain Kurdish autonomy within the context of a democratic Syria and its armed wing, the People's Protection Units (YPG), has proved capable on the battlefield. YPG fighters have managed not only to fend off Arab attacks on Kurdish territory but have also scored victories against Islamic State targets with U.S. support, even entering alliances with some of the Free Syrian Army militias fighting the Islamic State.
But Turkey's recent decision to also target the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in northern Iraq and southeastern Turkey as part of its direct intervention against the Islamic State does not bode well for the Kurds preserving their gains in Syria. There are few if any parties interested in propping up Kurdish autonomy. It will be difficult for the Kurds to maintain the autonomy they have seized, and Turkey's forays into the Syrian conflict directly challenge the relative autonomy the PYD has been able to establish in northeastern Syria. Read the full analysis here: The Fragile Gains of Syria's Kurds.
July 30
United States, Turkey, Syria
A U.S.-backed rebel group known as Division 30 released a statement claiming that its leader, Col. Nadim al-Hassan, was kidnapped by al Qaeda-affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra. Al-Hassan was on a mission to establish connections with other rebel groups near Aleppo when he was captured, along with a number of his colleagues. Most of the 54 graduates from the U.S.-sponsored train and equip program in Turkey came from Division 30.
This is a major setback during the first week of formalized cooperation between Turkey and the United States. After years of political impasse, the countries have finally agreed to work together to fight the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. The United States and Turkey hope that cooperation will advance the Syrian civil war to a position whereby a negotiated settlement could remove President Bashar al Assad from power.
Though Ankara and Washington are actively working together, there is no agreement on which Syrian rebel groups with whom to partner. Turkey is more pragmatic than the United States about who to include and would like to accommodate groups such as Jabhat al-Nusra, which is already an effective fighting force. But Washington is extremely wary of associating with an organization directly linked to al Qaeda.
Jabhat al-Nusra most likely staged the kidnapping to make a point; which is to highlight their relevancy and ensure the group is not left out of U.S.-Turkish discussions over which group to support. Meaningful resources are scarce in Syria, so backing from major countries like the United States or Turkey is extremely desirable. Whether al-Hassan and his cohort are released will indicate how cooperative Jabhat al-Nusra is likely to be in the future.
Overall U.S.-Turkish cooperation is predicated on the idea that Ankara will be able to get Syrian rebel groups to cooperate with each other. This is key to achieving any kind of success on the ground. Washington and Ankara provide aid and air support to select rebel groups, but neither Turkey nor the United States is willing to commit ground forces in significant numbers. If Ankara is unable or unwilling to facilitate a solution to the rebel-partnering issue, or selects unpalatable allies, Washington could well back away from Turkey, withdrawing U.S. forces from Incirlik air base and reinvigorating its relationship with the Kurds.
July 29
Iraq, Turkey
Saboteurs attacked a pipeline transporting crude oil between the Iraqi city of Kirkuk and the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan, halting the flow of oil, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said. The attack, which took place near the Iraqi border in Turkey’s Sirnak province, comes a day after militants attacked a natural gas pipeline in Agri province, near the Iranian border. The Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq relies on part of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline for its own exports. The pipeline has been carrying around 300,000 barrels of oil per day, down from its maximum operational capacity of 400,000 barrels daily, because of other recent attacks, according to Iraqi government figures.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said that his council of ministers views the ongoing Turkish campaign of airstrikes in northern Iraq as a dangerous escalation that violates Iraqi sovereignty. The prime minister said via Twitter that the council is committed not to allow any attack on Turkey from Iraqi territory and called on Ankara to respect good relations between the two countries. An Iraqi Kurdish official also condemned Turkey’s recent attacks against militant Kurdish targets in Iraq, Syria and inside Turkey itself, calling for Kurdish locals in Dohuk province to protest against Turkish military bases in the region. The official, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Central Council chief Adil Murad, said Turkey’s long-established military presence in Dohuk amounts to a foreign occupation.
Syria
Israeli aircraft struck a car in a rural part of Quneitra in the Syrian Golan Heights, killing three people. A report by the Hezbollah-linked Al-Manar said the strike was carried out by an Israeli drone, and that the two deceased were members of a militia that supports Syrian President Bashar al Assad. The Israeli military would not comment on the report. Israel will continue to prove integral to U.S. aims in Syria by also preventing Turkey from being able to claim the region as its own personal sphere of influence.
Syria’s territorial integrity must be preserved, the Egyptian foreign ministry said in an apparent expression of disapproval of Turkey’s military operations in the country. Cairo supports efforts to combat terrorist groups in Syria, but such efforts must occur within the context of preserving the unity and integrity of Syrian territories, in accordance with international legal norms and decisions. The statement did not mention Turkey by name.
United States, Turkey
Ankara formally signed a deal with the United States over the use of Turkey’s Incirlik air base in the U.S.-led coalition’s campaign against the Islamic State, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said. The agreement covers only the fight against the Islamic State and does not include air support for allied Kurdish fighters in northern Syria, a spokesman for the ministry said. Strategically, Turkey has no interest in an independent Kurdish state appearing on its border with Syria, which would set the stage for Kurds with similar aspirations in Turkey and beyond.
July 28
Syria
Syrian rebels launched an offensive on government-held northwestern Syria in a bid to eventually take over the coastal mountains that are the heart of Syrian President Bashar al Assad's power base. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the insurgents, including Jabhat al-Nusra, took over government-held positions in Jisr al-Shughour and pushed into the northern edge of the Sahl al-Ghab plain. Meanwhile, Syrian Kurds and the Syrian army pushed the Islamic State from al-Hasaka.
Iraq, Turkey
Turkish fighter jets continued to attack militant targets both inside Turkey and across the border in northern Iraq. After taking off from an air base in Turkey’s southeastern Diyarbakir province, two F-16s hit six targets in Iraq, an unnamed official said, Reuters reported. Airstrikes also hit anti-aircraft and mortar positions of the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey’s southeastern Sirnak province, near the Iraqi border. The Turkish General Staff said the anti-PKK action was taken following an attack on Turkish gendarmerie forces in the region by suspected PKK militants.
Turkey, NATO
NATO stands in strong solidarity with Turkey against the acts of terror and instability the country is facing along its southern border with Syria and Iraq, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at the opening of an emergency meeting requested by Ankara of all 28 member states, AFP reported. Stoltenberg did not comment specifically on Turkey's recently launched campaign of airstrikes targeting Islamic State and Kurdish militant targets in Iraq and Syria. On July 26, the secretary-general said self-defense has to "proportional." On both the domestic and the strategic levels, Turkey's interests have finally brought Ankara into the fight.
Geopolitical Diary: Turkey's decision to take a more active role in the Syrian conflict will be welcomed by many, including the United States. But, for fighters from the Kurdish People's Protection Units (or YPG) in the small northern Syrian town of Zur Maghar, the intervention is decidedly less welcome. Citing Kurdish sources, Hurriyet newspaper reported July 27 that Turkish tanks fired on U.S.-backed YPG elements in Zur Maghar. The Turkish Foreign Ministry was quick to deny the report, insisting that the target set for Turkish forces was limited to Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militants in northern Iraq and Islamic State positions in Syria.
This raises speculation that the attack was either an accident resulting from misidentification or that Turkish forces exploited an opportunity to target YPG militants with plausible deniability. A co-chairman of YPG's political parent group — the Kurdish Democratic Union Party — told Al Hayat newspaper that the Kurdish militia might be willing to join Syrian government forces, presumably in response to the developing tension between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds. Read the full Geopolitical Diary here: An Invigorated Turkey Lashes Out.
July 27
Turkey, Iraq, Syria, United States
The Turkish military attacked Kurdish insurgent camps for the second consecutive night. The strikes occurred shortly after the Turkish government blamed the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) for a July 25 attack that killed two Turkish soldiers wounded another four, when a car bomb and roadside explosives hit a passing military vehicle near the Diyarbakir air base. Gunmen also opened fire on a nearby police station; no casualties were reported. The July 27 airstrikes targeted PKK positions near the northern Iraqi border town of Harkuk. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that the operations have changed the regional game, and he called for a meeting of NATO states on July 28 to discuss the campaign in Syria and Iraq.
Turkey and the United States agreed to the shared goal of establishing an "Islamic State-free zone" along Turkey’s border with Syria. The agreement involves a roughly 110-kilometer-long (68-mile) area west of the Euphrates River and into Syria’s Aleppo province. This zone would eventually come under control of the Syrian opposition. Several issues, such as the composition of moderate Syrian opposition ground forces that would be used to hold the protected area, are still under discussion, sources said. Washington is reportedly adamant that any joint efforts will not include a formal military-enforced no-fly zone, though Ankara still envisions air cover and protection for the opposition fighters. Ankara's decision to cooperate with the United States and actively battle the Islamic State will have repercussions throughout the Syrian-Iraqi battlespace and within Turkey itself.
Esewhere, Syrian Kurdish forces known as the YPG, or People’s Protection Units, say their positions were hit in cross-border shelling by the Turkish army. The attack occurred on the outskirts of the Islamic State-held town of Jarablus, where the YPG has been fighting the jihadist group. In response, the Turkish military said it has not been targeting Syrian Kurdish forces in northern Syria who say they were hit by cross-border shelling earlier on July 27. A military official said the ministry was investigating claims that Turkish elements engaged positions held by forces other than the Islamic State in Syria or the militant Kurdistan Workers’ Party in Iraq. Earlier, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, which has been fighting the Islamic State, said Turkish tanks hit its positions and those of allied Arab rebels in the Aleppo province border town of Zur Maghar and another nearby village. Activists with the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights also reported the Turkish fire. In a provocative statement, the co-chairman of the Kurdish group the Democratic Union Party, Salih Muslim, said that under the right conditions the YPG could join the Syrian army. According to Muslim, if the Syrian army abandoned the Baathist stance, the group would consider joining it.
Finally, The YPG also captured the town of Sarrin from the Islamic State. The success comes after a monthlong offensive intended to cut the jihadist group’s supply lines. Islamic State fighters had used the town as a launchpad for raids on the Kurdish-held town of Kobani further north. Airstrikes from the U.S.-led coalition supported the assault.
July 26
Syria
More Syrians need to join the army for the military to win the country's civil war against rebel forces, Syrian President Bashar al Assad said in an address July 26. Al Assad, speaking a day after he issued an amnesty for deserters, said that while more people have been joining the army, the number of soldiers was not enough to win a conflict fought on multiple fronts. He also said that his appeal does not mean the military is collapsing.
July 25
Turkey, Syria, Iraq
July 23
Turkey, United States
Ankara is expected to allow the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State to station aircraft at a NATO base in southern Turkey, according to a July 23 White House statement. U.S. President Barack Obama and his Turkish counterpart, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, reportedly finalized an agreement on use of the Incirlik Air Base in Adana during a telephone call July 22. The two sides initially agreed in principle on use of the base during talks July 7-8. Turkey also announced July 23 that it plans to fly airships and build a two-fenced border system with a moat along its border with Syria. On July 22, Turkey's deputy prime minister said that Turkish authorities had arrested at least 102 Islamic State suspects over the past six months. The United States is coaxing Turkey into playing a more active role in the conflict in Syria.
Geopolitical Diary: Multiple leaks in U.S. and Turkish media on Thursday claimed that the United States and Turkey have reached a deal for U.S.-led coalition forces to use Turkey's Incirlik base for operations against the Islamic State following a phone call late Wednesday between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and U.S. President Barack Obama. Our team has been closely tracking a number of events over the past month, including a Turkish military buildup at the Syrian border, an intensification of anti-Islamic State security operations in Turkey, a recent visit to Ankara by a high-level U.S. delegation and the recent Islamic State suicide attack in Suruc near the Syrian border. Though it was clear to us that some kind of understanding was developing between Washington and Ankara that would inevitably deepen Turkey's military footprint, the scope and details of that understanding were foggy until now. Read the full Geopolitical Diary here: Hints and Leaks Converge on a Turkish Air Base.
Turkey, Syria
Shots fired from the Syrian side of the Turkish border killed one Turkish soldier and wounded at least one more July 23. According to Turkish outlet Dogan News Agency, the shots came from an area controlled by the Islamic State. So far, Ankara has been reluctant to send troops into Syria to confront Islamic State militants directly, instead cracking down on the Islamic State network within Turkey.
Iraq, United States
U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter made a surprise visit to Baghdad July 23 to assess the success of the campaign against the Islamic State. This is Carter's first trip to Iraq since becoming defense secretary in February. He will meet with U.S. commanders and Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. Meanwhile, Iraqi forces are reporting that the first stages of the operation to liberate Anbar were successful.
Iraqi Federal Police forces attacked Islamic State sites in al-Madyaq and al-Sadiqah, east of Ramadi, killing 25 militants and destroying six vehicles. The same day, troops trained and equipped by a U.S.-led coalition also joined Iraqi operations for the first time to retake Anbar province, Al Arabiya News reported. The United States has over 3,000 troops in the country to train and advise the Iraqi military.
July 22
Syria
Muhsin al-Fadhli, allegedly the leader of a group of senior al Qaeda members known as the Khorasan Group, was killed in a U.S.-led coalition airstrike July 8, a Pentagon spokesman said July 22. Al-Fadhli was traveling in a vehicle near the northwestern Syrian town of Sarmada. The Kuwaiti-born jihadist was reportedly a member of Osama bin Laden’s inner circle and had advance knowledge of the 9/11 attacks. Airstrikes in Syria will weaken, but not destroy militant groups.
Turkey
An alleged member of the Islamic State was shot and killed late July 22 in Istanbul by a member of a militant group allied with an outlawed Kurdish party. According to a statement released by the Patriotic Revolutionary Youth Movement, a wing of the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (known commonly as the PKK), the man had come to Istanbul seven months ago to receive treatment for wounds sustained while fighting with the Islamic State in the Syrian town of Kobani. The group said it had been tracking his movements for three months and that he was planning attacks in the city. Such assassination operations would continue, the group said. Amid four intersecting crises, Ankara's strategy is to be consistently ambiguous.
July 20
Turkey
At least 27 were killed and 100 more wounded July 20 by an explosion in the Turkish town of Suruc, near the Syrian border. The town is located around 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) from the Syrian town of Kobani, which has been a center of conflict. The blast reportedly targeted a cultural center that housed at least 300 members of a youth organization working to rebuild Kobani. The Islamic State is suspected to be responsible for the attack; Turkey has been considering playing a more active role against the group in Syria.
Analysis: The bombing was carried out in the vicinity of an event at the cultural center, against a soft target and among large crowds. The event drew many volunteers from Istanbul who were on their way to perform relief work in the Syrian city of Kobani. The Islamic State's extensive reach throughout Turkey means it has the capacity to carry out similar attacks in the future. This is particularly true in the region near the Syrian border, where the Islamic State has built up a vast network of safe-houses and agents who facilitate the transfer of recruits and supplies into Syria.
Turkey's decision to crack down on the Islamic State's network in the country left the group with two options: First, it could respond by retaliating against Turkey with terrorist attacks and cross-border raids launched from Syria. Second, the Islamic State could choose not to retaliate to avoid a broader Turkish offensive that could potentially include attacks against Islamic State targets within Syria. Of the two courses of action, the second was always rather unlikely given the Islamic State's previous behavior and its propensity to respond to any pressure with force. Read the full analysis here: The Islamic State Retaliates Against Turkey.
Syria
Kurdish forces are in near full control of al-Hasaka city, following an attack by the Islamic State in the area last month. Control of al-Hasaka had been split between government forces and Kurdish militias. If Kurdish militias backed by the United States gain full control of the city, it would be a major blow to Damascus. The Kurds have accused Damascus of being unable to protect the city from Islamic militants.
July 19
Syria
The Syrian army stepped up airstrikes and retook villages in a new offensive on Islamist rebels in the northeastern coastal Latakia province, army sources said July 19. The army also said it bombarded rebel supply lines and wrested back five villages and hilltops. Islamist rebels, including Jabhat al-Nusra, control many villages in the borderlands north of the government-held port city of Latakia. Government forces have intensified their campaign in the province since rebels took the critical town of Jisr al-Shughour in April.
July 15
Turkey, Iraq
Turkey plans to host Iraqi police for training, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said at a news conference in Ankara with his Iraqi counterpart. Under the framework agreed upon between the two countries, Turkey will also continue to equip and train the Iraqi army. The United States has been coaxing Turkey into playing a more active role in the conflict against the Islamic State.
July 14
Iraq
Iraqi security forces retook eight areas of Anbar province from forces loyal to the Islamic State on July 14, unnamed security sources said. Iraqi forces also reportedly foiled an attack on a government complex in Baghdad. Earlier, the commander of the Iraqi air force said that four F-16 fighter jets received by the Iraqi government on July 13 will participate in the military’s ongoing operation to retake Anbar province from the Islamic State. The U.S.-led coalition carried out at least 29 airstrikes near Ramadi, the provincial capital, striking 67 Islamic State staging areas and destroying several vehicles and pieces of equipment, U.S. military sources said.
Anbar province lies immediately to the west of Baghdad and stretches to the Syrian border. To clear the province, Iraqi security forces will first have to take back a number of key defensive positions established by the Islamic State in strategic cities and built-up areas. The first of these is the city of Fallujah, located 50 kilometers (30 miles) west of Baghdad. Iraqi forces have already begun the encirclement of Fallujah, clearing Islamic State positions from the surrounding area. The plan of attack will likely be similar to the operation to retake Tikrit to the north: By completely isolating the target area, security forces can cut off reinforcement and resupply lines as well as preventing Islamic State fighters from withdrawing from the urban core to fallback positions. Reports from the ground already suggest that some senior Islamic State commanders have sent their families away from Fallujah in anticipation of a bloody fight.
While Baghdad's forces learned valuable lessons from Tikrit, the operation to clear Fallujah will be costly in terms of manpower, materiel and time. Fighting in urban terrain is vicious, and Fallujah is bigger and more complex than Tikrit. Also, the Islamic State has had time to fortify their positions, and the same tactics that bogged down Iraqi security forces on the outskirts of Tirkit will apply even more so in Fallujah — concentric rings of improvised explosive devices as well as physical barriers along all the main entry points to city, covered by direct and indirect fire from fortified positions. Islamic State fighters are likely to defend aggressively, even when cut off. In Tikrit they applied the principles of antagonistic, mobile defense — until forced to consolidate into smaller pockets, which further increased their potency by concentrating their remaining forces.
Even with overwhelming force and assistance from Iranian advisors and Sunni tribal fighters, Baghdad's assault on Tikrit stalled, requiring U.S.-led coalition air support to break the stalemate. Air power will be a key component of the Fallujah offensive, and U.S. aircraft have already begun eroding Islamic State forces in depth. Even if the assault of Fallujah goes as planned, Iraqi security forces will have to continue to clear west along the Euphrates river valley, fighting through the Anbar provincial capital of Ramadi and beyond, tackling the Islamic State strongholds of Hit, Haditha and Qaim.
Syria
The Islamic State made gains against the Syrian army in the northeastern city of Hassakeh July 14, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Fighting in the city has been ongoing since June 25, when the Islamic State seized two neighborhoods. In the subsequent weeks, fighting has killed some 170 people and the militants have expanded their control to Hassakeh's southern entrance, a stadium, the al-Zuhur neighborhood and parts of Ghwayran.
July 13
Iraq
Iraqi forces launched a new offensive to drive the Islamic State from Anbar province on July 13. The operation, which is beginning with an assault on Fallujah, will involve Shiite militias, Iraqi police, military units (including special operations forces) and Sunni tribesmen who oppose the presence of Islamic State. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi arrived at the headquarters of the joint operations to oversee the campaign. Three villages in Fallujah were reportedly taken from the Islamic State by one of the militias. Over the weekend, U.S.-led coalition forces conducted 16 air raids in Syria and 11 more in Iraq. Meanwhile, the Islamic State took credit for a series of bombings in the capital on July 12 that killed at least 35 people and injured another 70. The Islamic State is really an insurgency rather than a terrorist group. Fighting a war on several fronts and governing territory, especially large cities such as Mosul and Ramadi, requires an incredible amount of money, resources and manpower.
Syria
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an airstrike in northwest Syria killed two senior Islamic State leaders July 13. The Observatory, which gathers its information from activists in Syria, identified the leaders as an Iraqi named Abu Osama al-Iraqi and a Syrian named Amer al-Rafdan. The group believes the airstrike was conducted by the U.S.-led coalition fighting the Islamic State in the region.
July 10
Turkey
Turkish police operations in three cities detained 21 suspected Islamic State recruiters, according to state-run media. In Istanbul, the police counterterrorism unit raid targeted several addresses, including one on Temasa Street in Gaziosmanpasa district. The alleged Islamic State members are accused of recruiting foreign fighters from Europe, a key component of the militant group's success.
July 9
Syria
Syrian army troops advanced to about 5 kilometers (3 miles) of the central Syrian city of Palmyra. The government troops clashed with Islamic State militants to the west of the city and, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, could soon enter Palmyra itself. The Syrian government has been conducting increasingly intense airstrikes on the city, which the Islamic State captured May 21.
Elsewhere, senior Syrian air force official Maj. Gen. Nadeem Shallah, the head of the Damascus branch in the Syrian Directorate for Air Force Intelligence, was reportedly found shot in his car in Damascus. Government officials have not yet officially confirmed the report of his death. Shallah's branch was the largest division in intelligence service for the Syrian air force. His death represents one of the most high-profile assassinations to date in Syria since the start of the civil war in 2011.
July 8
Syria
Hezbollah and Syrian government forces advanced further into the northwestern part of Zabadani, a strategically important town near the Lebanese border that has seen fierce fighting for much of the past week, an unnamed Hezbollah source said. At least 13 Syrian rebels and two Hezbollah fighters were killed. In response to the assault on Zabadani, rebels in control of the spring that provides most of Damascus’ drinking water have threatened to shut off pipelines to the capital if the offensive continues. Meanwhile, Syrian troops and allied gunmen repelled an offensive led by jihadist rebel group Jabhat al-Nusra on a neighborhood in Aleppo, activists and state media said. Opposition activists claimed the military carried out a chlorine gas attack in another part of the city.
Turkey, United States
Turkish and U.S. officials continued talks on anti-Islamic State cooperation on July 8, though neither side released a statement. The two sides met for more than eight hours on July 7. The U.S. delegation also met with Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu. The talks are one of the strongest signals yet that Ankara may be ready to take on a larger regional role and cooperate more closely with the United States on opposing militant threats such as the Islamic State.
Jordan
Jordan has begun deploying military reinforcements to its northern border with Syria and the eastern border with Iraq. The news comes as U.S. Congress voted July 7 to allow Washington to handle arms transfers to Jordan like it does with NATO countries — as well as to increase financial assistance and military cooperation with Jordan to deal with the threat posed by the Islamic State.
July 7
Syria, Turkey, United States
A high-level U.S. official arrived in Ankara for talks about the fight against the Islamic State on July 7. The meeting comes after Turkey reinforced its border against the militant group and U.S. President Barack Obama vowed in an address to step up the fight against the group. The talks are expected to focus on the use of Turkish military bases to launch U.S. airstrikes into Syria.
Geopolitical Diary: Turkey's future plans for Syria became clearer Tuesday, following weeks of speculation over Ankara's involvement in the civil war waging along its southern border. On Tuesday, the United States and Turkey began talks involving special U.S. presidential representative Gen. John Allen and a host of U.S. and Turkish military and intelligence officials. The two countries have struggled to forge a common strategy in response to the Syrian conflict and a burgeoning jihadist presence perhaps best exemplified by the Islamic State. The United States has long wanted Turkey — a NATO member and arguably the most capable military power in the region — to step up its role against militants, much to Ankara's consternation. Read the full Geopolitical Diary here: Turkey Considers a Larger Role in Syria.
July 6
Syria, Turkey
Multiple offensives continue throughout the fractious Syrian theater. Rebel groups are heavily committed in Aleppo, Daraa and around Damascus itself, while the Islamic State remains highly active in the provinces of al-Hasaka and Raqaa. Islamic State fighters are reported to have seized the town of Ain Issa and surrounding areas north of Raqaa city from Kurdish defenders supported by U.S.-led airstrikes. Elsewhere, the Syrian army, assisted by Hezbollah fighters, moved against rebel factions in Zabadani, the last rebel-held town in the Qalamoun region near the Lebanese border. The city, which once served as a logistical hub for Hezbollah, is a critical node in the land supply routes between Lebanon and Syria as well as key terrain for rebel supply lines.
Yet, the most significant developments over the past week — from a geopolitical perspective — have taken place north of the border. A number of leaked reports hinting at a possible Turkish military incursion into Syria have ignited intense debate and conjecture in political as well as media circles.
Adding fuel to the speculation, over the last five days Ankara has taken measures to ensure that Turkey is prepared for any number of possible options when it comes to taking action. Reports indicate that Turkey has forward deployed elements of three commando brigades, an armored brigade and a mechanized brigade to the Azaz-Jarabulus border area. In addition, the Turkish Second Army maintains sizable forces in close proximity to the border — troop numbers that could greatly enhance and reinforce any initially committed ground force.
As anticipated, Ankara's security forces have significantly ramped up policing efforts along the porous border. Additionally, domestic intelligence and security elements are actively targeting various Islamic State cells known to exist within Turkey. Breaking down these operational cells is crucial to prevent retaliatory terrorist attacks by the Islamic State made during the anticipated backlash against possible Turkish action in Syria.
With all these capabilities and measures in place, the Turkish military is now in a position to execute numerous missions and tasks, ranging from (but not limited to): locking down the border, engaging Islamic State positions inside Syria with artillery and airstrikes, staging raids across the border, or the establishment of a buffer zone 30 kilometers (19 miles) deep and 100 kilometers wide.
However, intervention in Syria is still far from assured. The ruling Justice and Development Party and the military remain in heavy discussions over the best direction to take. As Stratfor previously highlighted, the constraints and risks of a Turkish intervention in Syria have not diminished or abated, which complicates the decision to commit to an aggressive course of action.
Also on July 6, U.S. President Barack Obama made a live televised speech following a meeting at the Pentagon with military leaders and advisors to discuss progress against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The president largely reiterated core points of the administration's strategy. He noted that the Islamic State is at a strategic disadvantage because of its regional isolation. He also emphasized U.S. efforts to take out energy infrastructure, target financial flows as well as to provide support to the Iraqi government and moderate Syrian opposition fighters. The president urged Congress to confirm the appointment of Adam Szubin as undersecretary of the Treasury Department. The speech also highlighted the continued threat of lone wolf attacks within the United States and worldwide.
July 1
Syria
Nearly 7,000 Kurdish peshmerga fighters could be sent to the city of al-Hasaka in northern Syria to fight against the Islamic State, Omar Ousi, a senior Iraqi Kurdish lawmaker, said July 1. The plan will be put to the Iraqi Kurdistan parliament, and implementation would depend on coordination with the Syrian government and the Kurdish People’s Protection Units.
