Georgia is trying to maintain relationships with two distinct camps: NATO and the European Union on one hand, and Russia on the other. Under President Mikhail Saakashvili, who officially sought EU and NATO accession for Georgia, the country was considered an ally of the West. However, the emergence of billionaire Ivanishvili brought with it substantial changes in Georgia's political system. Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream party defeated Saakashvili's United National Movement in recent parliamentary elections, and Ivanishvili has set his sights on consolidating power in the October presidential election, in which Saakashvili is not eligible to run. Saakashvili and his United National Movement party's 10-year dominance over Georgian politics could be coming to an end.
These domestic political changes have led to changes in Georgian foreign policy. Relations with Russia were strained under Saakashvili — the two countries went to war in 2008 — but Ivanishvili has now prioritized his country's standing with Russia. The prime minister's economic team brokered an agreement whereby Georgia resumed exports of key goods such as wine, mineral water and agricultural products to Russia. Ivanishvili has expressed hope that the two countries eventually could cooperate on more strategic issues, such as transit and energy.
But the more strategic issues have security implications and thus concern the West. And because of these concerns, Ivanishvili must ensure that repaired ties with Russia do not come at the expense of Georgia's relationship with the West. Ivanishvili has stated that he would like to model Georgia's foreign policy after that of Slovakia, which is a committed NATO and EU member but has a strong commercial relationship and friendly ties with Russia. The prime minister has also said Georgia's first priority is regaining control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia — territories it lost to Russia in the 2008 war. This will be the most significant obstacle in normalizing bilateral ties.
NATO wants to maintain ties with Georgia and limit Tbilisi's ties with Russia. For its part, Georgia remains nominally committed to NATO membership. However, there are limits to how much the relationship can grow. Despite Tbilisi's best efforts under Saakashvili, NATO was never willing to include Georgia into the bloc. More important, NATO was unwilling to intervene directly on behalf of Georgia during the 2008 war.
It was partly for these reasons that Tbilisi needed to improve ties with Moscow. How the Georgian government navigates these relationships will define the country's foreign policy moving forward.
