Georgian politics have been consolidated under Saakashvili and his party since he came to power after the Rose Revolution in 2003. Throughout his presidency, Saakashvili was able to take advantage of fractures among opposition movements that kept them from posing any substantial threat to him and the United National Movement. Saakashvili and his party secured comfortable majorities in presidential and parliamentary elections in 2004 and 2008. However, the emergence of Ivanishvili and his ability to convince other opposition figures to join his Georgian Dream movement became the most potent challenge Saakashvili has faced since coming into power and led to the United National Movement's defeat.

Ivanishvili — a retail and business tycoon — has no previous political experience, and his plans for the parliament remain unclear. His next step will probably be to build a coalition in parliament, which could include some defectors from Saakashvili's political camp. However, Saakashvili will still be a force to be reckoned with, since he remains Georgia's president and top power broker until his term expires in October 2013.

Later in 2013, a new Georgian Constitution is set to take effect and to increase the parliament and prime minister's powers at the expense of the president's authority. Given that Ivanishvili said he plans to quit politics after two years but did not establish a clear exit plan, this further clouds the future. In the next several months, Georgia could turn inward as its political system is restructured and different factions vie for influence.

What is not likely to change in the near term, however, is the nature of Georgia's relationships with the West and Russia. Saakashvili is still in control of the major executive and military institutions in the country as long as he remains president, and he will continue to reach out to the West as a political and security backer against Russia. Furthermore, Ivanishvili ran on a pro-Western platform similar to Saakashvili's. Any major overtures toward Russia would risk undermining Ivanishvili's popularity at a politically sensitive time. 

Russia is approaching Ivanishvili's victory carefully, Matviyenko's supportive statements notwithstanding. Saakashvili has been an outspoken critic of Moscow and has lobbied aggressively for Georgia's accession to NATO. However, Russia's overall position in the country has actually strengthened — largely due to the 2008 war, which allowed Russia to establish a military presence in the Georgian breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia while exposing the West's inability or unwillingness to guarantee the security of a loyal ally. Moscow knows what to expect under Saakashvili, but Ivanishvili's policies and ambitions remain unknown. Moreover, it is still possible that a Saakashvili loyalist will succeed him as president, so Russia is likely to be cautious in its approach to Tbilisi's new political situation.