Kazakhstan is arguably the most influential of the Central Asian states: It is the largest and most economically vibrant of the region's five countries. Because it borders Russia, China and three of the four other Central Asian states, Kazakhstan typically serves as an intermediary among the countries and as a bellwether for Central Asian politics. However, with few natural barriers between it and its neighbors and a population that is relatively sparse, Kazakhstan is vulnerable.
Though it holds a preferential political relationship with Moscow, Astana has had to maintain decent relations with both Beijing and Washington, with the former heavily investing in Kazakhstan's economy and the latter in its vast energy sector. By balancing between various powers, Kazakhstan has received more foreign direct investment than any other former Soviet state except Russia. It has also been a stable energy producer for the past few decades, exporting oil to the West, Russia, China and throughout the region.
One of the main factors in Kazakhstan's stability has been Nazarbayev's centralized rule, which began before the fall of the Soviet Union. Nazarbayev, his family and a close political circle of loyalists have controlled the country's major strategic sectors and political organs since early in his presidency. This includes the energy sector, banks, media, youth organizations, political parties, construction groups and more.
Nazarbayev's autocratic and dynastic rule has been criticized in the West, where accusations have been leveled that Kazakhstan lacks democracy and imposes restrictions on independent media and business. Within Kazakhstan, however, Nazarbayev enjoys popular support — some independent estimates put his approval ratings at 85-95 percent. One reason is that Nazarbayev has kept Kazakhstan stable compared to its neighbors, such as Kyrgyzstan, which has seen multiple revolutions in the past decade, and Tajikistan, which has experienced a civil war. Moreover, Kazakhstan is less restrictive than its neighbors Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, which are also led by autocrats.
The Centrality of Nazarbayev
The problem is that the current system in Kazakhstan is built upon a network of loyalists and family centering on Nazarbayev — who is now 72 years old, six years past life expectancy in the country. Originally, Nazarbayev wanted to carry out a dynastic succession, but he has three daughters (and does not believe that women should rule) and all his grandsons or nephews are either too young or not the right choice for the post.
For nearly the past decade, there have been questions about how Nazarbayev would set up his succession. Kazakhstan, like most Central Asian states, is socially and politically based on clan networks. The concern is that if there is not a clear succession plan, Kazakhstan could fall into dangerous infighting among the clans and power circles upon his death.
Over the years, any shift among the country's most powerful people has drawn attention as a possible indication of Nazarbayev's plans. That is what makes Massimov's reshuffle from prime minister to administration head important.
Massimov has been one of the most powerful men in Kazakhstan over the past five years, making some critical progress in strengthening and stabilizing the country. Massimov became prime minister in 2007, replacing Daniyal Akhmetov, who was seen as responsible for some of the country's major economic, energy and banking problems. Massimov is considered responsible for raising Western investment in the country in new sectors and for creating a new tax and custom regime that has enticed foreign firms. Massimov is also seen as the key politician (outside of Nazarbayev) balancing the West, Russia and China in Kazakhstan; the West sees him as a reformer, and he has personal ties to Moscow and Beijing.
However, Massimov has kept his profile fairly low in domestic politics. He has a close personal relationship with Nazarbayev's son-in-law Timur Kulibayev, whom many assumed in recent years could succeed Nazarbayev. The personal relationship between Massimov and Kulibayev has mainly benefited Kulibayev's business interests.
Massimov's New Position
Now Massimov has been thrust into the heart of the political struggles he previously tried to avoid. As head of the presidential administration, he will oversee most of the political portfolios in the country, including parliament. Massimov's replacement as prime minister, Akhmetov, likely will continue Massimov's agenda.
However, Massimov's placement as head of the presidential administration could signal major shakeups to come. The reshuffle means not only that a new Cabinet must be formed but also that bigger changes to the power balance in the Kazakh government could be in store.
Massimov is respected in most circles in the country, though he can be tough when purging waste from critical sectors, as he was in his handling of the banking sector. Massimov could now be tasked with helping Nazarbayev reshape Kazakhstan's political circles in preparation for succession. His new appointment could be a signal from the president that a succession plan is about to be revealed.
It could also be that Nazarbayev wants to train Massimov in the political balancing act involving the various factions and clans before naming him as a possible successor. Massimov has shown he is adept at handling the major powers surrounding Kazakhstan but not the messier struggles within the country.
A key person to watch in the wake of this political reshuffle is Nazarbayev's son-in-law Kulibayev, who has occupied several different posts in the past year. First, Kulibayev was ejected from a top energy post in November 2011 after a string of deadly worker strikes rocked the country. The next month, he was named head of the powerful sovereign wealth fund, Samruk-Kazyna. Since then, he has been consolidating his assets under the fund. Now it will be important to see whether his old ally, Massimov, could help Kulibayev in his new position, or if Massimov's political redesigns will exclude the president's son-in-law.
