Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev will probably seek re-election in 2012, presidential adviser Yermukhamet Yertysbayev said Sept. 16. For more than a year, speculation that the 70-year-old president would step down before the end of 2010 has dominated the political dialogue in Astana, prompting large-scale infighting among the country's political factions. Now, it appears Nazarbayev is considering remaining in office in an effort to quash the resultant political battles. Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan's leader since 1989, is the longest-serving leader of any independent state that emerged from the Soviet collapse. His health has recently deteriorated, and he is now 11 years past the life expectancy for Kazakh males. Rumors of his leaving office took off in earnest in 2009, with most government officials and analysts citing the 2010 expiration of his current term as his departure date. Furthering this belief was a move by the Kazakh Parliament in June to name Nazarbayev "President for Life" and "Leader of the Nation," a post that would guarantee Nazarbayev a say in all Kazakh domestic and foreign issues even after he left the presidency. But two problems have arisen since the start of the rumors. First, no succession plan has been established. Though Kazakhstan formally elects its officials, in practice officials are handpicked, a pattern evident in other Central Asian states like Turkmenistan. Nazarbayev has seen his family as a political dynasty. After the fall of the Soviet Union, Nazarbayev toyed with the idea of linking his family to other Central Asian leading families via the marriage of his three daughters, thereby creating a sort of Central Asian empire. But nothing came of his plan due to instability and rivalries among the other Central Asian states. In the past few years, it has been assumed that either Nazarbayev's daughter, Darigha, or grandson, Nurali, would take the helm. But rivalries and political ambition within his own family – especially from the husbands of Nazarbayev's daughters — have forced Nazarbayev to back off from plans to implement a familial succession line. Second, with no succession plan in place, and given the rumors of Nazarbayev's departure from office, infighting inside the Kazakh government and among the main power clans has erupted over the past year. The principal groups fighting for more power, money and control are as follows:
- The security circles — mainly the Committee of National Security and the state Security Council
- The energy circle — led by the duo of Nazarbayev's son-in-law, Timur Kulibayev, and Prime Minister Karim Massimov
- The family members of Darigha and Nurali
- Kairat Kelimbetov, head of the powerful Samruk-Kazyna Fund, which controls 70 percent of the country's economy
