Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's family dynasty is taking dysfunction to new heights. Nazarbayev's son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev — who is regularly in trouble with authorities and with his father-in-law — pushed Nazarbayev past the point of forgiveness when he directly challenged Nazarbayev for the presidency for the first time. In response, on May 30 Nazarbayev called for a family member's arrest for the first time and had Aliyev arrested in Austria on June 1 on years-old murder charges. Aliyev, who controls one of the largest and most influential groups in Kazakhstan, will not go down quietly. His power will either grow to challenge Nazarbayev or get absorbed into the president's power — which is growing every day. Whatever the outcome for Aliyev, Kazakhstan's large foreign investors — mainly the United States, Europe, Russia and China — are the actors to watch as instability leaves Kazakhstan ripe for foreign meddling. The Power Players Nazarbayev has cracked down on most of the opposition in Kazakhstan during his 16 years as president. He has set up four main groups in his inner circle to control the largest influential sectors in the country (and to balance each other in the process). Most of the four groups are either made up of family or clan members — hence Nazarbayev's reputation for creating a family dynasty in Kazakhstan. The controlling players are:

• Nazarbayev's eldest daughter Darigha and her husband (Aliyev), who control one political faction and the media;
• Nazarbayev's second daughter Dinara and her husband Timur Kulibayev, who are in charge of the other large political faction and the government oversight of Kazakhstan's energy wealth;
• Nazarbayev's longtime friend and clansman Nurzhan Subkhanberdin, who oversees the country's financial sector;
• The one player with no family ties to the president, the Eurasia Group (not to be confused with the international consulting firm of the same name). This group is the connection between foreign energy players and the government. The Eurasia Group is three non-Kazakh oligarchs that took control of many key industries — such as metals and energy — in Kazakhstan at the fall of the Soviet Union. The group then created lucrative relationships with foreign companies — like the United States' Chevron Corp. and ExxonMobil — to persuade them to enter Kazakhstan. The Eurasia Group also has personal and political ties to the Kremlin.

Nazarbayev has carefully balanced this intricate control for nearly two decades while eliminating most of his opposition in the country. While Nazarbayev was arranging this control, he also passed a slew of laws protecting his and his family's privileges, including legal immunity. In recent years, Nazarbayev's eldest daughter, Darigha, became the front-runner to succeed her father as she joined him on visits to countries like the United Kingdom and the United States. However, Darigha's husband — Aliyev — has become the rebel among the four groups by strong-arming many of the other power players, especially his brother-in-law Kulibayev. In 2001, Aliyev was accused of plotting a coup and Nazarbayev sent him to be ambassador to Austria and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. In 2005, Kulibayev was discovered to have created the plot and Aliyev returned. However, Subkhanberdin's faction then accused Aliyev of a string of murders of prominent businessmen in Kazakhstan in 2005 and 2006, saying Aliyev set up death squads without Nazarbayev's knowledge. Nazarbayev again responded by sending Aliyev to Austria in May 2007, where Aliyev gave a series of interviews in which he stated his intention to run for president in 2012, replacing his father-in-law. Challenge to Power Of all the headlines Aliyev has made, this was the first in which he challenged Nazarbayev's position. Days later, Nazarbayev passed a law that would give him unlimited presidential terms, solidifying him as president for life. Aliyev then blasted his father-in-law, calling the move a "retreat to totalitarian Soviet past." This was the break point for Nazarbayev, who issued an international warrant within hours. Aliyev was arrested and charged with the 2005-2006 murders in Kazakhstan. Since Aliyev has immunity from such charges, the order could only have come from Nazarbayev himself. Aliyev is now out on bail in Austria. He has appealed to the Austrian government not to extradite him back to Kazakhstan, saying he will be killed upon returning. The timing of Nazarbayev's order for Aliyev's arrest and the timing of Aliyev's challenge to his father-in-law's power have not escaped anyone. Many are wondering if this is the end for Aliyev, or if Nazarbayev will accept him as the prodigal son-in-law once again. Then again, Aliyev could try to oppose Nazarbayev's authority. What happens next depends on Nazarbayev's eldest daughter and Aliyev's wife, Darigha. She has long stood by her husband, writing infamous articles in his defense in the past and blasting other Kazakh power players. But this situation is very different. Her future is at risk and her loyalties to her father and her husband are being tested. Nazarbayev has already shut down Darigha's media empire, closing some of Kazakhstan's largest Internet sites, newspapers and television and radio stations. Without media to voice her usual protests, Darigha is remaining quiet for now — which leads to further confusion on where her loyalties lie. Darigha could abandon her husband — who cannot lead a revolution without Darigha and her popularity — and pledge her loyalty to her father while waiting patiently to assume power after his death. But she also could join her husband in creating a formidable opposition to her father. Her political faction is one of the two largest, but she does not have support from the three other controlling groups in Kazakhstan; Kulibayev and Subkhanberdin would ally against Darigha if she attempted to oppose her father, and the Eurasia Group would refuse to join in family politics. Furthermore, forming an opposition would entail the risk of ending up like other crushed opposition members. Nazarbayev has never been challenged politically by family members, and a crackdown directly from the president himself could get very messy. The Wild Card The wild card in this scenario is the Eurasia Group — moreover, its numerous foreign energy backers — and its reaction if Kazakhstan becomes domestically unstable for the first time in decades. The Eurasia Group has never directly interfered in domestic politics, though it has opened the door for foreign interference from the United States, Europe, Russia and China. A competition has been brewing among the four foreign powers for access to Kazakhstan's enormous energy wealth, though it has been up to Nazarbayev to choose which route to take. However, the Eurasia Group has become more critical recently of Nazarbayev's sweeping consolidation inside Kazakhstan, which has tightened control over all sectors including energy. In 2005, Nazarbayev passed a law that allows the president to change the current contracts with foreign investors at his whim and disregard any international ruling if Nazarbayev's choice is challenged. Foreign investors are worried that Nazarbayev's control could threaten their pieces of Kazakhstan's enormous energy wealth. A destabilization at the family's core gives a unique opportunity for all foreign parties to push their own agenda — a possibility that could swing the country into a struggle much bigger than a family feud.