Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev has flown to Aktau, capital of the western region of Mangistau, to hold a series of meetings on the rebuilding of the region following three days of protests and riots. The riots were a result of a crackdown on protesting oil workers, many of whom had been laid off or were demanding better wages. The Kazakh government initially responded with a robust military intervention in the region, then followed with numerous concessions to the rioters and a slew of governmental purges.

With activity in Mangistau returning to normal, Nazarbayev is looking to prevent any further uprisings and manage the bad publicity resulting from the crackdown. His strategy includes making numerous concessions to the protesters, investing money in rebuilding areas damaged during the unrest and purging numerous Kazakh government officials from their positions. One of the officials being considered for dismissal is Nazarbayev's son-in-law Timur Kulibayev — a powerful political figure whose dismissal could create political instability and throw Kazakhstan's possible succession plan into disarray.

To recover from the three days of violence in Mangistau, Nazarbayev first allocated approximately $20 million to rebuild the town of Zhanaozen, which suffered the most damage — approximately $13 million worth — during the riots. Second, Nazarbayev named Baurzhan Mukhamedzhanov as the new head of the Mangistau region. The president then dismissed the chairman of KazMunaiGas (KMG) and replaced him with former Deputy Oil and Gas Minister Kazzat Kiinov (the oil workers protesting in Mangistau were employed by KMG's subsidiary Uzenmunaigaz).

Now, Nazarbayev is considering dismissing Kulibayev from his post as head of the Samruk-Kazyna National Welfare Fund, which oversees KMG. Nazarbayev said that he has not decided whether to ask Kulibayev to resign, but the mere possibility is important. Kulibayev is largely considered the second most powerful person in Kazakhstan, behind only Nazarbayev. Husband to Nazarbayev's second daughter, Kulibayev has been accumulating more power by forming alliances within the government — most notably with Prime Minister Karim Massimov — and by acquiring assets across the country and solidifying his relationship with Russia. His position as chief of Samruk-Kazyna was critical, as the fund controls assets that contribute to nearly 80 percent of Kazakhstan's gross domestic product.

Kulibayev's increasing power has created controversy, particularly among the many clans competing against him (particularly the Southern Clan) and those within the security groups who oppose him. Moreover, Nazarbayev has been wary about the amount of power his son-in-laws have; previously, son-in-law Rakhat Aliyev challenged the president's power and ended up fleeing the country. With Nazarbayev working to create a presidential succession plan, Kulibayev is determined to build his power base as he and his rivals fight for influence.

According to Stratfor sources in Kazakhstan, Nazarbayev does not believe Kulibayev can keep peace among the country's clans should his group take leadership of the country. Moreover, Nazarbayev has not been happy with Kulibayev's handling of Samruk-Kazyna and KMG. The Samruk-Kazyna Fund took charge of many of Kazakhstan's banks following the banking crisis in Kazakhstan in 2009. Samruk-Kazyna and Kulibayev were tasked with formulating a plan to recover from the crisis, but two years later no concrete plan has been implemented and now one of Kazakhstan's largest banks, BTA Bank, could default within the next year. Kulibayev's other major holding, KMG, is constantly mismanaging its funds and projects. Furthermore, KMG's subsidiary Uzenmunaigaz laid off more than 900 workers in western Kazakhstan in August for financial reasons. KMG and its subsidiaries in Mangistau have fired 1,300 workers since industrial actions began in May. The resulting unrest could give Nazarbayev an excuse to finally target Kulibayev.

However, Nazarbayev knows that it would be difficult to simply oust Kulibayev, given Kulibayev's connections within Kazakhstan and in Russia. If Nazarbayev is serious about removing his son-in-law from positions of power, Kulibayev will not go quietly, and his retaliation could jeopardize Kazakhstan's relative political stability. Since Kazakhstan is already experiencing social unrest, increased militancy and a banking crisis — all before parliamentary elections in January and a possible need for a replacement for the aging Nazarbayev at any time — the president might want to avoid a political crisis.

Nazarbayev appears to at least be reassessing Kulibayev's place in the country. The other purges, such as the replacement of the KMG chief, erode Kulibayev's hold somewhat. Nazarbayev's announcement that Kulibayev's dismissal was even a possible consideration could be a warning to his son-in-law to improve his performance in the struggling fields of energy and banking. It could also be a way to temper the sentiments of Kulibayev's rivals who believe the president has allowed his son-in-law too much freedom. It is unclear how this might affect succession plans; previously, Kulibayev and his supporters appeared to be the natural choice to take control after Nazarbayev, but now the president is casting doubts on that possibility and throwing succession plans into further confusion.