Since the PTP took power in August 2011, opening the door for Thaksin's return has been at the top of the party's agenda. Thaksin was ousted from the premiership in a 2006 coup and has been living in self-imposed exile ever since. Under the PTP's proposed reconciliation bills, Thaksin would receive a pardon for his role in violence that preceded the coup.
The PTP has tried to gauge the reactions of different groups to its reconciliation bills. Currently, the party enjoys broad public support, and the traditional establishment, including the military and the monarchy, has demonstrated little capability of or interest in severely pressuring the government — despite the PTP's series of apparent attempts to undermine these same institutions. The PTP-led government's efforts to reach an understanding with the opposition also appear to have neutralized certain individuals within the royal ranks. Nevertheless, opposition politicians may see the renewed unrest on the streets as an opportunity to assert themselves, which would only further divide the already polarized political system.
One political group with something to gain from the protests is the Yellow Shirts. The Yellow Shirts movement, which originated as a coalition of activists against Thaksin and consists mainly of pro-monarchy Bangkok elites, played a vital role in Thailand's post-2005 political crisis. The Yellow Shirts are supported by the military and the monarchy, which perceived Thaksin's lack of deference to royal power, aggressive policies and promotion of his own allies as threats to the established political order in the country. Massive Yellow Shirt protests in 2005 and 2006 paved the way for the military coup that ousted Thaksin. The group also helped to topple two subsequent pro-Thaksin governments.
The influence of the Yellow Shirts began to falter when Democratic Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva secured the premiership in 2008. Conflicting interests both within the PAD and between the group and the Abhisit administration weakened the Yellow Shirts. But the PAD never dissolved, and its supporters are on the streets once again seeking to prevent Thaksin's return.
The PTP's reconciliation agenda is threatened not only by the Yellow Shirts but also from within its own organization. Even as it has been trying to balance its reconciliation plans with its need to avoid triggering a pushback from the military or the monarchy, the PTP government has been pressured by its own group of supporters, known as the Red Shirts, on whom the PTP relied to win the 2011 general elections. The Red Shirts oppose the reconciliation bills because the extension of amnesty to all political figures involved in the country's political crisis would essentially exonerate many who played a role in the crackdown on the Red Shirts in 2010. A key Red Shirt demand has been that the individuals behind this bloody crackdown face trial. Moreover, the PTP-led government has neglected the Red Shirts' long-standing campaign for Cabinet seats. Consequently, the Red Shirts have increasingly shown themselves willing to pressure the government, though they also know that jeopardizing the government would undermine their own interests.
The extent to which the current protests will re-energize the Yellow Shirts remains to be seen. It is also unknown how the opposition will maneuver to take advantage of the current wave of street unrest. But these are still politically sensitive times in Thailand, and the PTP's controversial agenda could open the door for a return to political instability.
