Thailand's military and police have faced a total of 58 grenade attacks since May 13, Deputy Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Dapong Rattanasuwan of the Royal Thai Army said May 18, speaking on national television. In other words,Thai security forces have faced an average of more than 10 grenade attacks per day since they began a security operation to force an end to mass protests by the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD), or Red Shirts. Dapong said the grenades were fired by "terrorists" who are operating among the Red Shirts, especially in the Water Gate and Bon Kai areas of downtown Bangkok, and who have taken stations on top of tall buildings near the main rally point at Rajprasong intersection. He added that the rally group in Rajprasong is coordinating with protesters in other areas across the city, and the protest leaders are attempting to stir up violence so as to get international organizations involved in the Thai political crisis. Dapong’s statements reveal the ongoing public relations campaign by the Thai government and military to justify the use of force in dealing with the protesters after nearly 40 people were killed in recent days. Since the bloody clashes April 10 when security forces failed to stamp out the protests and suffered casualties, including two high-ranking officers, Thai authorities have been slowly building up their case for using force against the "terrorists" within the protesters' ranks, calling attention to the protesters' use of military weapons. But the government needs to make its case even more effectively now, since it has rejected Red Shirt appeals May 18 to return yet again to formal negotiations. The military continues to besiege the protesters, but it has not taken major actions since its latest deadline for protests to end lapsed the afternoon of May 17, and is struggling to respond effectively to provocations at various locations across the downtown area. Moreover, the military has not even begun what will be the hardest part of the operation — clearing out the last 5,000 or so protesters from the main rally site at Rajprasong. To do so forcibly will inevitably push the death toll higher, tarnishing the government's image at home and drawing increased criticism from the international community. This does not mean the government is not willing to clear the protesters out; the Thai leaders have shown greater willingness to take a heavy hand, exemplified by the sniper shot that killed the Red Shirts' chief security tactician as well as the movement of forces to surround the protest sites and cut off transportation access, electricity and water. (click here to enlarge image) However, an attempt to clear out this area would require a grim determination that the security forces have not yet shown, and the probable high death toll would bring enormous political risks to the government even if the operation were successful — and that assumes the security forces execute the operation competently (which is not an easy assumption). The Thai government and army are closer than ever to attempting such a crackdown, but they also appear to be delaying as long as possible in hopes that their opponents will crack first. Thus, despite the government's public disavowals, secret negotiations are under way with protest leaders. The Red Shirts are facing the threat of a brutal crackdown and have obvious reasons to try to negotiate a way out, while the government would prefer to see the protests end without risking further security debacles or a higher body count, both of which would damage its credibility and ability to cling to power in the aftermath. Still the situation has deteriorated to the point that secret talks have little hope of resulting in a mutually acceptable arrangement for the ruling party and the Red Shirt leaders. The Red leaders may believe they have no avenue of escape, given that they will face charges of terrorism and other crimes when the protests conclude. A lack of safe passage will push them toward further confrontation, which still provides some hope, however slight, of discrediting the government to the point that it collapses. Moreover it is not clear whether there is a single leader within the group that commands enough authority, or enough discipline in the ranks, to strike a deal with the government and deliver on it. The Red Shirts are more fractured than ever before, as some moderate leaders have fled the protests, the most radical leader has been shot, remaining leaders are in disagreement and factions are proliferating. According to STRATFOR sources, the remaining protesters are becoming increasingly radicalized as they come under greater pressure from security forces and are showing increasing hostility toward negotiations and a willingness to contend with security forces. Hence the possibility of a grand bargain that concludes the whole affair without further violence is highly remote. Even in the event that some kind of last-minute agreement is made, or sub-groups of protesters split off, the government will still have to deal with the most militant Reds, who are thought to number at least 500 but whose ranks are growing. The current pause in street battles is temporary, and more clashes can be expected. The government has the momentum and is slowly building up pressure and choking off the protests while building its case against the Red Shirts as non-peaceful protesters and garnering public support to restore law and order. But the Red Shirts are nearing the end of their rope and also have a host of tactics to use — from throwing grenades to burning stacks of tires to attempting to light oil trucks or petrol stations on fire — that will continue to complicate suppression efforts. Moreover, now that the government has dedicated itself to putting a stop to the unrest once and for all, it will lose credibility with each passing day that the unrest continues. Worst of all for Thailand, the current crisis, however it concludes, will only intensify the country's cycle of instability. The protests have emerged out of rural divisions and disparity in wealth between Bangkok and the north and northeastern provinces, and the protest movement is strengthening over time, posing a challenge to current power structures while presenting a tool that political elites will strive to control. Meanwhile, the Thai establishment is undergoing a generational transition as the king and top military figures pass from the scene, creating more anxiety among ruling elites. The conditions are ripe for the Thai army to increase its power, as it has done during previous periods of uncertainty — even directly seizing power if necessary. Thailand's political instability is a recurring phenomenon and has not prevented it from achieving economic success over the long run, but the set of challenges in the immediate future are strong enough to raise questions about whether this pattern will hold.