As COVID-19 vaccination campaigns accelerate, EU governments will soften their lockdown measures in the coming weeks to boost economic activity through the end of the year. On April 21, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control said that measures such as social distancing and the wearing of face masks could be “relaxed” when fully vaccinated people meet with other fully vaccinated people. Several EU member states have also recently announced plans to soften their social distancing measures in the coming weeks. This is meant to allow additional sectors of the economy to reopen, as well as attract foreign tourists as weather conditions in Europe improve. 

• On April 21, Italy unveiled a calendar to start softening social distancing measures. From April 26, restaurants, bars, movie theaters, schools and other activities will reopen in the country’s low-risk areas, but the night curfew will remain in place. The Italian government will further soften the restrictions on May 15, June 1 and June 15.  
• Spain will lift the state of alarm on May 9, and travel within the country will be allowed. Regional governments will continue to manage restrictions as they see fit. 
• France will lift a ban on domestic travel and reopen schools on May 3. The government said non-essential shops could reopen after mid-May. On April 19, France also launched a digital COVID-19 health certificate to allow travel to and from its overseas territories, a project that could eventually be expanded to visitors from other countries.
• On April 19, Greece lifted a quarantine requirement for visitors from the European Union, as well as the United States, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates and other countries, who present a vaccination certificate or a negative test. The Greek government said the country will be fully open to tourists starting May 14.
• Poland will soften restrictions in 11 of its 16 provinces from April 26. Schools, hairdressers and other activities will reopen. 

Inoculation campaigns are gaining traction across the European Union as more vaccines become available. After initial logistical problems, EU countries have accelerated their vaccination rollouts in recent weeks, and additional vaccines will become available in the near future. As of April 22, around 23% of adults in the European Union have received at least one shot of a COVID-19 vaccine and 8.5% have received two. But the process remains uneven: 40% of adults in Hungary, for example, have received at least one dose compared with only 9% in Bulgaria. While infection rates rose significantly in the bloc in February and March, the number of deaths decreased, which could reflect the impact of vaccinations on risk groups such as the elderly. In recent days, EU leaders have asked people not to relax their attitudes toward the virus, as it could result in new waves of infections.

• As of April 20, the European Union was vaccinating around 2.2 million people a day, up from 1.1 million people a day on March 20 and roughly 760,000 on Feb. 20. 
• In early April, Germany hit a record of vaccinating more than 700,000 people in a single day. France also announced a daily record of more than 500,000 vaccinations earlier this month.
• Pfizer/BioNTech recently announced plans to deliver 600 million doses of their two-shot vaccine to the European Union this year. 
• In late May, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) is expected to release its assessment of the COVID-19 vaccine developed by the German company CureVac. CureVac has plans to produce some 300 million doses this year, many of which will remain in Europe.
• Doubts about the AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines could slow down the vaccination process in the European Union, especially if member states stop using them or people refuse to get vaccinated with them.

Economic activity will probably rebound in the third quarter and especially in the fourth quarter, which is when the bloc is expected to reach so-called “herd immunity” with more than 70% of EU adults vaccinated. EU member states have recently revised down their growth projections for 2021, as the lockdown measures have lasted longer than originally expected. A mild rebound in activity in the second quarter should be followed by more robust growth in the third and especially the fourth quarter. Barring the emergence of new, more infectious strains of the virus or major disruptions to vaccination campaigns, most EU member states are on track to have at least 70% of their adult populations vaccinated by the end of the year, which should allow for additional softenings of social distancing rules. 

• On March 24, Germany’s IFO institute revised down its 2021 GDP growth projection for the country from 4.2% to 3.7% due to prolonged lockdowns.
• On April 9, the Spanish government said it now expects GDP to grow by 6.5% in 2021, down from its 7.2% forecast in October.
• On April 4, the French government lowered its GDP growth projection from 6% to 5%.
• Member states have until April 30 to present their plans to spend 750 billion euros in EU funds. The disbursements of EU grants and loans, which are scheduled to start by the end of the year, should also contribute to an acceleration of growth especially in 2022.