Editor's Note: This assessment is part of RANE's ongoing series analyzing the geopolitics of natural resources and raw materials, which will be published periodically throughout the remainder of 2026; previous installments of this series can be found here.

Morocco's state-owned OCP Group, the world's largest phosphate exporter, will shore up its supply chains by boosting domestic ammonia production and diversifying sulfur suppliers, leveraging its phosphate dominance to strengthen Morocco's economic partnerships and broader influence across sub-Saharan Africa. On June 10, Bangladesh's Cabinet Committee on Government Purchase approved two separate proposals for the purchase of 60,000 tons of triple super phosphate fertilizer from Morocco's state-owned OCP Group. The approval is one of the latest in a series of deals that OCP Group has made to export phosphate and fertilizers to countries around the world, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America. Triple super phosphate fertilizer and other phosphate fertilizers boost plants' root development, support seedling growth and increase crop yields. They are often used in countries vulnerable to agricultural disease and droughts, as robust root networks make crops more resistant to stresses. OCP Group is the largest global producer of phosphate rock. It taps into Morocco's abundant phosphate reserves — which account for nearly 70% of the global total, according to the 2026 U.S. Geological Survey on phosphate rock.

• The majority of Morocco's phosphate reserves are within Moroccan territory, though small additional reserves lie in the Moroccan-controlled territory in the disputed Western Sahara. 
• Morocco's mining sector, overwhelmingly dominated by phosphate rock, accounts for around 10% of GDP. OCP Group alone accounts for roughly 20% of Morocco's total export revenues. 

Despite Morocco's dominance in the phosphate sector, limited supplies of other raw phosphate fertilizer inputs, including sulfur and natural gas, make the OCP Group reliant on global supply chains for phosphate fertilizer synthesis. Although Morocco has abundant phosphate supplies, it relies on third-country inputs, including ammonia, sulfur and natural gas, to produce finished fertilizer. Because Morocco has limited domestic oil and gas production — from which sulfur is recaptured — the OCP Group relies on sulfur imports, primarily from Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates in order to synthesize sulfuric acid, a chemical used in the synthesis of phosphoric acid. Phosphoric acid is then combined with anhydrous ammonia to produce phosphate fertilizers. Due to limited domestic supplies of natural gas, the company has historically depended on ammonia imports or local gas supplies in countries where it operates regional blending facilities, such as Cote d'Ivoire, Senegal, Rwanda and Nigeria. However, as Morocco aims to source over half of its electricity from renewables by 2030, it is now actively pursuing the expansion of green ammonia production to reduce these dependencies.

• The OCP Group produces sulfuric acid at industrial plants in Jorf Lasfar and Safi but relies on imported sulfur to produce sulfuric acid.
• In addition to the regional blending facilities, the OCP Group has pursued some larger-scale joint ventures. For example, in 2021, the OCP Group and Nigeria Sovereign Investment Authority reached an agreement for a $1.5 billion Ibom Ammonia and Fertilizer Complex with the capacity to produce 1.5 million metric tons of ammonia, a portion of which will be used in domestic Nigerian di-ammonium phosphate and fertilizers. The complex was originally slated to open in 2025, but has been delayed, in part due to bureaucratic hurdles.

Morocco will accelerate steps to strengthen the supply chains of other raw inputs through boosting domestic ammonia production, diversifying sulfur suppliers and increasing production of phosphate fertilizers less reliant on sulfur and ammonia, though OCP Group will still be vulnerable to global supply shocks. Reliance on third-country inputs to produce phosphate fertilizer exposes Morocco to supply chain vulnerabilities — a vulnerability recently highlighted by the Iran war. Although OCP Group says that it has resumed full production capacity, disruptions to Gulf sulfur exports resulted in a managed 30% decrease in fertilizer production. To mitigate external risks, OCP Group is taking steps to improve supply chain security for its inputs. Even before the Iran war, OCP Group was increasing efforts to boost green ammonia production through projects such as the Tarfaya Mega-Project in southern Morocco, which also comes amid Rabat's wider efforts to expand its renewable energy portfolio. The Tarfaya Mega-Project is expected to produce 1 million tons per year of renewable ammonia by 2027 and could increase production capacity to 3 million tons per year by 2032, though doubts remain about whether the project will be completed, given renewable hydrogen ventures worldwide are increasingly stalling over high costs and weak demand. Morocco's domestic ammonia production reaching its full anticipated potential would significantly reduce the country's reliance on ammonia imports, which total around 2 million tons per year. Even so, the OCP Group will remain exposed to supply chain vulnerabilities stemming from global sulfur disruptions, as Morocco has very limited domestic supplies — though over time, efforts to boost domestic oil and gas production could somewhat reduce this vulnerability. Morocco's reliance on sulfur supplies from Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates makes it vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine War as well as maritime disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. OCP Group will likely take steps to diversify its sulfur suppliers to reduce these supply chain vulnerabilities, including relying on alternative sources from Canada, Poland and the Gulf of Mexico to diversify away from vulnerable Middle Eastern supply chains. Furthermore, OCP Group's efforts to increase triple super phosphate fertilizer production will somewhat insulate production from these supply chain disruptions, as the production of triple super phosphate fertilizer requires less sulfuric acid than other phosphate fertilizers. 

• In May, Russia's Federal Railway Agency indefinitely prevented Kazakhstan from using Russian railways to export sulfur via Russian ports. Kazakhstan has few alternative routes, but if the export disruptions persist, Kazakhstan may be pressured to seek more costly and less efficient routes to resume sulfur exports. 
• Although some signs point toward the completion of the Tarfaya Mega-Project, including a 2025 Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin precertification, which confirms the project's adherence to European standards for green ammonia exports, the successful completion of the smaller-scale Jorf renewable ammonia project — a demonstrator project for the larger Tarfaya production facility — by the end of 2026, will be a better indicator of the project's potential.
• OCP Group is less exposed to natural gas supply disruptions, since regional blending facilities often run on host-country gas, partly shielding that output from seaborne liquefied natural gas shocks at chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.

OCP Group's fertilizer production through joint ventures will also likely contribute to improving Morocco's bilateral relations, especially with sub-Saharan countries, positioning it as an economic partner and expanding its regional economic and diplomatic influence. The OCP Group's global operations, joint ventures and additional blending facilities in sub-Saharan Africa will deepen Morocco's position as an economic partner — especially since these production facilities employ locals, incorporate local resources, especially natural gas, in the production process and frequently produce specialty fertilizers tailored to the soil conditions. Furthermore, with some sub-Saharan African countries being among the most drought-vulnerable in the world, the OCP Group's efforts to create efficient fertilizers, improve food security and boost agricultural yield in sub-Saharan Africa will likely position the company, and, by extension, Morocco as a key partner in economic and agricultural development. But this position will likely remain a source of soft power more than coercive leverage. Despite the OCP Group's dominance over global phosphate supplies, the OCP Group is unlikely to use its control over global phosphate supplies as leverage over other countries, even for diplomatic disputes, such as the mixed support within African Union countries for Morocco's sovereignty plan over Western Sahara. For one, the OCP Group's reliance on other imports for fertilizer synthesis and the fact that many finished fertilizer products are produced in other countries mean that the OCP Group does not fully control the phosphate fertilizer supply chain. Furthermore, other countries, including Russia and China, export more fertilizer, meaning that there are alternative suppliers, though, at times, they have imposed protectionist measures to prioritize domestic fertilizer supplies. Secondly, the OCP Group threatening to restrict phosphate and/or fertilizer supplies would likely jeopardize Morocco's efforts to position itself as an economic partner with other African countries amid its ongoing efforts to boost transnational cooperation, including with West African countries through the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline, which is set to position Morocco as an energy export hub to Europe via Spain. As such, though Morocco is unlikely to leverage the OCP Group to pressure countries to change political stances — such as on the Western Sahara dispute — Morocco's expanding regional influence through economic cooperation means that some countries may become more amenable to recognizing Morocco's sovereignty claims, taking a neutral approach or deprioritizing the issue.

• Morocco's role in improving food security and agricultural development in sub-Saharan Africa has already been lauded by African Union officials since Morocco rejoined the union in 2017.
• Morocco has, at times of global supply shortages, provided fertilizer donations to countries in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, such as Ghana, Panama and Guatemala, to generate goodwill and boost food security.