Internal crises in Spain's center-left government are harming its prospects ahead of regional elections in May, which will open the door to a right-wing victory in December general elections that could increase domestic political volatility. On March 7, Spain's Congress of Deputies began the administrative process that will result in a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez later in the month. The motion, which was triggered by the far-right Vox party, will almost certainly fail because the main opposition party, the conservative Popular Party (PP), will abstain and most of the other political parties will vote against it. However, the motion will happen at a time when Sanchez's coalition, which includes his Socialist Party (PSOE) and the left-wing Unidas Podemos (UP), is dealing with severe infighting and ahead of regional elections in May and general elections in December, where the coalition partners are expected to lose ground to their conservative and right-wing rivals.

• The PSOE and UP entered a government coalition after the general elections in November 2019. While their alliance was uneasy from the beginning, recent events have put it under particular pressure. In September 2022, the Congress of Deputies approved a UP-promoted sexual assault law with loopholes that allowed for the reduction of penalties for some sexual offenders. The PSOE is pushing to reform the law to close those loopholes, and the amendment process started at the Congress of Deputies on March 7. But this was only possible because some opposition parties sided with the PSOE, while UP voted against the amendments to its law and criticized the PSOE. Then in February, a corruption scandal allegedly involving some PSOE members in Tenerife generated new tensions between the party and UP.
• Over the past ten months, opinion polls have consistently put the PP ahead of the PSOE by margins of between 2 and 7 points. Polls also suggest that Vox could end up in the third position in the general election, ahead of UP. 

A strong performance by the opposition parties in the regional elections in May would consolidate their chances of winning the general elections in December, but would also raise questions over their ability to govern together. Spain will hold elections in 12 of its 17 autonomous communities on May 28, in addition to municipal elections across the country (including in large cities such as Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia). The PSOE is in power in nine of the 12 autonomous communities that will hold elections, while the PP is in power in only two. This means that the PSOE has much more to lose than the PP, especially because opinion polls suggest that the PSOE could lose power to the PP in some of the autonomous communities (such as Aragon, the Balearic Islands and potentially the Valencian Community) without winning any new ones. But for the PP, winning some of the regional elections will also create political challenges, as in some cases it may need to enter a coalition agreement with Vox, a party with which it competes for right-wing voters. The PP and Vox already govern together in Castile and Leon, but the leaderships of the two parties constantly send ambiguous messages about whether they will be willing to enter a coalition at the national level after the general election in December. 

• In March 2022, Vox entered a regional Spanish government for the first time after reaching a coalition agreement with the PP. While the PP won the regional election in February, it was unable to form a government alone and reached a last-minute deal with Vox to avoid a repetition of the election. According to opinion polls for the general elections, something similar could happen in December. 

A coalition between PP and Vox after the general elections would increase political instability in Spain, though the effect at the European level would be more modest. The PP would only consider entering a coalition agreement with Vox if it doesn't win enough seats in the Congress of Deputies to govern alone, which is the PP's main goal for the general elections. Such a coalition would be unstable, as the PP and Vox would struggle to agree on policy regarding social issues (ranging from minority rights to abortion) where the latter has more hawkish positions than the former. Vox would also probably clash with unions and civil society groups, which are likely to constantly protest against the government. A government including Vox would almost certainly reignite Catalonia's push for independence by putting an end to years of relatively cordial relations between Madrid and Barcelona under the PSOE-UP government. A Spanish government that includes a far-right party would also concern the European Union, though Spain's relationship with the bloc would not change substantially as Madrid would remain interested in receiving billions of euros in EU support (including roughly 140 billion euros in grants and loans from the European Union's COVID-19 relief fund). This means that while a PP-Vox government could occasionally challenge or criticize Brussels, it would still refrain from taking any actions that could jeopardize the disbursement of EU funds.

• Vox is critical of Spain's territorial model, where regional governments enjoy significant degrees of autonomy. The party proposes a constitutional reform to re-centralize Spain so that the central government can recover most of the policy-making powers that are currently under the control of the regional governments. A constitutional reform is unlikely in the short to medium term, especially if the general elections produce a fragmented parliament. However, Vox's presence in the Spanish central government would almost certainly generate a strong rejection in places including Catalonia and the Basque Country, where regional nationalism is particularly strong. 
• Vox also defends hawkish positions on issues such as gay rights, abortion rights and immigration, which would almost certainly produce clashes with organizations and political parties promoting those rights if the party takes power after the next general ballot. In November, roughly 4,700 people took part in protests against Vox across Castile and Leon organized by trade unions and other groups.
• Italy offers a precedent for potential relations between the European Union and Spain under a government that includes far-right parties. In Italy, the far-right Brothers of Italy and League parties are currently in power. While both parties are critical of the European Union, Rome has been careful not to do anything that would threaten its access to EU funds. In fact, the current government has continued with many of the economic policies that its pro-EU predecessor promised to Brussels in exchange for funds.