Amid a worsening cost of living crisis, Kenya's new president is unlikely to deliver on early economic promises, which will impede his government's ability to carry out fiscal consolidation measures to ensure debt sustainability. William Ruto was inaugurated as Kenya's fifth president on Sept. 13 after months of campaigning on revamping the East African giant's ailing economy, with low- and middle-income Kenyans facing food and fuel shortages, rampant inflation and record unemployment. Following his inauguration, Ruto reiterated his commitment to alleviating Kenya's cost of living crisis within his first 100 days in office. Rather than targeting direct consumer assistance, Ruto is prioritizing reducing food production costs. Proposed measures include expanding the school feeding program, increasing investment in agriculture, slashing prices for fertilizer, and raising funds to offer small- and medium-sized businesses reliable access to credit. In line with his disapproval of high spending on direct assistance measures, Ruto canceled Kenya's gasoline subsidy, raising the price per liter by 13%, just days after his swearing-in. 

• Ruto won 50.5% of the vote in Kenya's Aug. 9 general election, beating out his primary opponent Raila Odinga for the nation's top job. Following the polls, Odinga filed a lawsuit that alleged widespread irregularities and called for a recount. But on Sept. 5, Kenya's Supreme Court upheld the results of the election, dismissing Odinga's accusations. 
• Kenya's inflation rate reached a five-year high of 8.5% in August. Prices for maize flour increased by 38% last month compared with a year ago. Prices for soap also increased by 36%, kerosene by 30%, sugar by 23% and rice by 16.5% during the same period. 
• Ruto and allies have heavily emphasized the importance of agriculture in mitigating Kenya's cost of living crisis, as food accounts for an estimated 54% of household expenditures for average income earners and over 60% for poor households, according to remarks by Ruto's aides. Beginning the week of Sept. 19, the government will subsidize 1.4 million bags of fertilizer to bring prices to about $29 per bag from the current $54. 

Domestic budget and revenue constraints will complicate Ruto's near-term efforts to alleviate the cost of living crisis. Ruto has not specified how he plans to finance his economic reform agenda. While spending cuts like the Sept. 15 cancellation of Kenya's gasoline subsidy will give Ruto some fiscal room, it won't be enough to cover the litany of proposed measures. In June, the Kenyan parliament passed a supplementary budget and raised the debt ceiling to finance former President Uhuru Kenyatta's 2022-23 fiscal budget. Funding for Ruto's proposed measures could require the approval of a second supplementary budget at the October mid-term budget meeting. Anonymous officials close to Ruto have suggested that the new administration could fund another supplementary budget by pausing and taking financing from programs that do not fall under the ministries of agriculture, energy, manufacturing, water and irrigation. This, however, would prove difficult due to Kenya's deeply embedded patronage system and the political and social fallout from defunding programs that have already received financing. Ruto has also suggested that the government can finance increased ''bottom-up'' investment by increasing tax revenue. However, inadequate tax collection is a long-standing challenge in Kenya that is unlikely to be solved in the coming weeks as corruption, mismanagement and insufficient personnel have survived a multitude of presidential administrations.

• If the new administration is able to reallocate resources to its preferred sectors, Ruto's programs are likely to face many of the challenges that plagued his predecessor, such as patronage-based resource allocation. As an example, this means that a program like Ruto's proposal for subsistence farmers to receive 1.4 million bags of subsidized fertilizer will be applied across regions and municipalities unevenly, likely based on relationships rather than need. 

External factors will exacerbate Kenya's economic crisis during Ruto's first 100 days and disappoint public expectations for immediate relief. In addition to domestic budgetary constraints, forces outside of Ruto's control — including the worst drought East Africa has seen in 40 years, along with the global economic downturn — will hamper the new president's ability to reinvigorate Kenya's ailing agricultural sector. Without rain, the country cannot supply its own food or sustain greater employment opportunities, which will eventually force the government to increase food imports at a high fiscal cost for the state. In addition, global supply chain bottlenecks, the energy crisis in Europe and tightening monetary policy in the West will continue to add pressure to global interest rates and weaken investor interest in ''at-risk'' emerging markets like Kenya. Against this backdrop, Ruto's planned investments in agriculture and unemployment have a very slim chance of alleviating the cost of living crisis in the next quarter, thereby failing to satisfy consumer demands. 

This will reduce political support for medium-term fiscal consolidation measures, increasing the risk of debt distress. Kenya's grim economic climate will leave Ruto with very little room for political maneuvering — limiting his ability to institute fiscal consolidation measures required by Kenya's ongoing program with the International Monetary Fund, like the removal of diesel and kerosene subsidies currently scheduled for October. In light of Kenya's high risk of debt distress, external creditors will probably take any deviation from the IMF program as a sign of heightened risk, likely resulting in increased yields on external credit that Kenya may need to issue in the coming months in order to cover its medium-term debt servicing costs, thereby further depressing the country's economic outlook. 

• The ongoing East African drought in East Africa is exacerbating food shortages (and, in turn, price shocks) by depleting crop and livestock yields. The Kenyan Meteorological Services predicts that poor rainfall will reduce crop yields and livestock production for a third year in a row from September-December 2022.
• Historically, fiscal consolidation measures like cutting fuel subsidies, pausing public wage increases and slashing food vouchers have prompted unrest in Kenya, at times spurring the government to reverse course.