Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s new chief of staff pick will help win him favor with the powerful centrist coalition in Congress. But while this may help shield Bolsonaro from impeachment proceedings, it will also likely significantly limit his political maneuvering by making him beholden to bloc members’ regional priorities for the remainder of his presidential term. On July 27, Bolsonaro’s government formally announced a cabinet reshuffle in which Senator Ciro Nogueira will be the new chief of staff. Nogueira belongs to the Progressistas party, which is a member of the “Big Center” (Centrao) coalition in Brazil’s Congress. House Speaker Arthur Lira — who alone has the ability to trigger impeachment proceedings — also belongs to Progressistas. Bolsonaro’s decision to appoint Nogueira as chief of staff is thus likely an aim to defuse the impeachment threat by better aligning himself with the influential Big Center bloc.

• Nogueira and Lira are both prominent leaders in the Big Center coalition, which is composed of several different political parties in the Congress with loose center-right ideologies.
• Members of the Big Center bloc are known for switching alliances when it’s politically favorable, holding cabinet positions in both far-left and -right governments. They’re also known for engaging in pork barrel spending, in which legislators vote to approve larger federal policies in exchange for government funding for infrastructure or other development projects in their constituencies. 
• Lira has so far refused to take up any of the almost 100 petitions to launch impeachment proceedings against Bolsonaro, citing the lack of political conditions necessary to do so. 

In the face of widespread popular disapproval, Bolsonaro will continue to make political moves as necessary to minimize the possibility of impeachment ahead of the 2022 presidential election. Bolsonaro is currently facing allegations of potential corruption involving a COVID-19 vaccine deal with India’s Bharat Biotech. Since the scandal broke in late June, Bolsonaro has seen his approval ratings drop to below 30%, the lowest in his presidency. Several rounds of nationwide demonstrations, based in urban centers, have demanded his impeachment.

• On June 23, the chief of the import division of Brazil’s health ministry testified that he faced pressure to approve the import of India’s Covaxin vaccine despite raising concerns about irregularities in the invoice, including a $45 million payment routed to a Singapore-based company. When the issues with the contract were brought to his attention in March, Bolsonaro allegedly promised to send the case to the federal police. But the police said they never received any such notification.
• In a recent survey conducted by the Brazilian polling institute Datafolha, 54% of Brazilians supported a proposed move by the country's lower house to open impeachment proceedings against Bolsonaro, while 42% opposed it.

With one of its members as chief of staff, parties in the Big Center coalition will likely be further emboldened to pursue policies favorable to their constituencies, such as regional development initiatives. By aligning himself closely with the Big Center, Bolsonaro decreases the likelihood that impeachment proceedings will be brought against him — barring the surfacing of further evidence against him. However, it will also limit Bolsonaro’s autonomy, as he will now need to appease the bloc in his political maneuvering, likely leading to increased funding for regional policy projects that individual lawmakers have promised to their constituencies. Additionally, Bolsonaro is likely attempting to build a coalition in anticipation of October 2022 presidential elections, in which the Big Center’s support will be crucial in winning popular votes. However, the bloc’s known for switching alliances with the political tide and thus may align itself with a competitor for the 2022 race, most likely former president Lula da Silva. This risk will compel Bolsonaro to fund politicians’ regional development initiatives to keep the Big Center Bloc in his corner. 

• Like many of his fellow Big Center legislators, Bolsonaro’s new chief of staff has himself proven prone to switching political loyalties when it’s in his interest. In 2016, for example, Nogueira engaged in discussions with then-president Dilma Rouseff over how to avoid impeachment, while simultaneously negotiating with then-Vice President Michael Temer over securing cabinet positions in the incoming government.