Israel’s Next Election Will Be a Battle of Hawkish Policies

(JACK GUEZ/AFP via Getty Images)

A store-owner wearing a mask speaks with officials at the Carmel Market in Israel's Mediterranean coastal city of Tel Aviv on Nov. 17, 2020.

The imminent end of Israel’s unity government will prompt more pledges of aggressive West Bank annexations and hawkish foreign policies by pinning the country’s right-wing factions against each other in what will be a highly contentious election season. The unity government between the Blue and White party and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party will not last much longer, with the latter now pushing through a bill that would dissolve the Knesset and call new elections. On Dec. 9, the second-in-command of Netanyahu’s party, Gideon Sa’ar, also announced he would be leaving Lukid to run for prime minister under a new party he had formed called New Hope. Sa’ar’s move to directly challenge Netanyahu has further shaken up Israel’s right-wing political scene ahead of what’s likely to be a highly contentious election season, where Netanyahu’s right-wing rivals will have all the more incentive to capitalize on popular discontent with his management of the COVID-19 pandemic and corruption charges, as well as his foreign policy weaknesses when it comes to Iran and the Gaza Strip.

Beyond the COVID-19 crisis, there is little else keeping Israel’s unity government from falling apart. The government was formed in April 2020 just as the first wave of COVID-19 infections reached Israel. The government’s mandate included a national lockdown to curb the spread of the virus, along with a power-sharing deal to end the country’s political paralysis. Under that deal, Gantz was slated to replace Netanyahu as prime minister in November 2021. But to avoid that transfer of power, Netanyahu and his Likud party have since been attempting to undermine confidence in the unity government through various means. This most recently included sparking a heated debate over the timeline of the country’s next budget, which eventually compelled Gantz and his Blue and White party to push to dissolve the Knesset.

Netanyahu is concerned that losing the premiership would expose him to the criminal charges he faces in at least three corruption cases. He is also concerned that turning power over to Gantz will mean the end of Netanyahu’s political career, some Israeli prime ministers never returned to power after leaving the post.
Israel’s budget debate is centered on whether it should encompass one or two years of expenses. A two-year budget would make it more difficult for Netanyahu to dissolve the Knesset to prevent Gantz from taking over in 2021, which is why Gantz has pushed for a one-year budget.

Sa’ar’s entry into the field will propel right-wing promises that could affect Israel’s foreign policies in the West Bank, Iran and Gaza. Sa’ar is a nationalist who has favored settlements and annexations in the past, and his path to unseating Netanyahu runs through Likud nationalists disenchanted with the prime minister’s leadership. To ensure those former votes don’t go to Sa’ar’s New Hope party, Likud will be tempted to ramp up its annexation promises, as well as adopt more hawkish foreign policies to boost Netanyahu’s national security credentials. This could signal future shifts in Israel’s regional behavior by increasing the political influence of Israeli settlers in the West Bank, as well as Iran and Gaza hawks, in foreign policy discussions.

In the run-up to the April 2020 election, Netanyahu promised to begin annexing more territory on July 1. But he has since held off on fulfilling that pledge in order to pave the way for normalization with the United Arab Emirates. This delay has angered Netanyahu’s settler supporters, prompting some to shift their allegiance to Likud’s rival right-wing party, Yamina.
Right-wing Israelis have largely hailed Netanyahu’s aggressive anti-Iran strategy, which it has been able to conduct without fear of U.S. pushback over the past four years thanks to President Donald Trump’s similarly hawkish approach to Tehran. But Netanyahu’s right-wing rivals are now arguing he will be unable no to deliver the same level of strategic security coordination with the United States after Trump leaves office in January, given Netanyahu’s much less friendly relationship with U.S. President-elect Joe Biden.
Nationalists are also critical of Netanyahu’s record of unstable aid-for-peace truces with Hamas, pushing instead for a strategy that relies more on military deterrence to secure the Gaza Strip.