Beijing Moves to Temper Tensions in Hong Kong With an Extended Legislative Term

Beijing is adopting more measured tactics to manage Hong Kong's legislative affairs, calibrating levers that enable it to control dissent without unduly distressing the city's business communities. Allowing Hong Kong's government to internally manage the interim plan for the legislative council is the next step in this strategy, having already escalated tensions in the city by delaying the elections and carrying out high-profile national security arrests.

Beijing's recent decision to extend the Hong Kong legislature's term creates a cover for Chinese action, which seeks to temper tensions both within the city as well as with the United States, while still emphasizing the continuity of "one country, two systems" by putting the responsibility in the hands of the Hong Kong government. On Aug. 11, China's National People's Congress Standing Committee approved extending the term of the current Hong Kong legislative council for at least a year, leaving the Hong Kong government to decide whether the four pro-democracy lawmakers disqualified from elections will keep their seats in the legislature. Reports suggest that lawmakers will not be required to swear new oaths of office or make a controversial pledge to uphold the new national security law.

On July 30, Hong Kong authorities disqualified 12 pro-democratic candidates, including the four incumbent lawmakers, from running in the next election for allegedly violating the new national security law.
An anonymous pro-Beijing Hong Kong politician said that China's decision on the term extension was based on input from Lam and pro-Beijing moderates, and was motivated by concerns about overly provoking tensions with the United States ahead of the November presidential election.
On July 31, Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced that the September legislative council elections would be delayed to 2021 due to a surge of COVID-19 cases in the city. She then submitted a request for Beijing to decide on how to proceed with the delay, given that the Hong Kong Basic law limits legislative terms to four years.
On Aug. 10, Hong Kong's new National Security Department police unit conducted a series of arrests and raids targeting activists and prominent pro-democracy figures, including media tycoon Jimmy Lai.

The Chinese government is adopting more measured tactics to manage Hong Kong's legislative affairs, calibrating levers that enable it to control dissent without distressing the city's business communities.

Over the next year, Beijing will have minimal tolerance for major disruptions to Hong Kong legislative activity and will not hesitate to target sitting lawmakers if necessary, likely relying on Hong Kong authorities to do so, as it works to enact policies that stabilize the city's politics and support its allies. Under the national security law, Hong Kong authorities can remove pro-democracy politicians from their seats or press charges should they disrupt parliament or stand in the way of the pro-Beijing agenda.

The legislative council has the potential to vote on controversial legislation, including limitations on the filibuster, which has often been used by pro-democracy lawmakers, as well as measures that could allow Hong Kongers in mainland China to vote in Hong Kong elections.