With elections now delayed to 2021, the recent arrests of activists and a pro-democracy media tycoon in Hong Kong likely herald a new period of more aggressive crackdowns on figures Beijing perceives as threats to the city's stability. On Aug. 10, Hong Kong's newly established National Security Department police unit carried out a series of raids and arrests across the city that netted 10 individuals for allegedly violating the new national security law.
- Media tycoon Jimmy Lai is the most high-profile figure arrested in the Aug. 10 raids, with allegations including foreign collusion under the national security law and conspiracy to defraud. Police also arrested his two sons and several corporate leaders at his newspaper, Apple Daily, seizing laptops, phones and bank documents. Police are also seeking a top Lai aide, U.S. citizen Mark Simon, who is currently outside of the city. Lai was also arrested in February 2020 for illegal assembly after attending protests in August-October 2019.
- Police also detained prominent activist Agnes Chow, reportedly for foreign collusion or inciting secession. Chow was a standing committee member of Demosisto, a pro-democracy organization and political party that had advocated for Hong Kong's self-determination until it dissolved itself following the passage of the national security law in January.
- Police arrested two pro-democracy activists for alleged foreign collusion related to the U.K.-based nongovernmental organization and lobbying group "Fight for Freedom, Stand with Hong Kong," which recently published a report on Hong Kong police brutality.
Hong Kong's year-long election delay will grant Beijing and city authorities greater room to escalate crackdowns without undermining the legitimacy of pro-Beijing candidates, or sacrificing the city's political system and jeopardizing its role as a global financial hub. Hong Kong authorities have been gradually increasing the scope of their national security law's application since its June 30 promulgation — using it first to arrest protesters, then charging activists posting online, disqualifying legislative council candidates and issuing warrants for overseas activists.
The next year in Hong Kong's ongoing political crisis will be defined by the interim plan for the legislative council until 2021, but a more heavy-handed approach — or an attempt to ram through controversial legislation — would risk inflaming Hong Kong's already polarized political scene and providing another rallying point for dissent. In the National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting ending Aug. 11, Beijing will decide on how to proceed following the current legislative council term's expiration, as it remains unclear whether the election delay is constitutional. This could include measures that limit the power of the pro-democracy camp, either by ejecting some lawmakers on national security grounds or by wielding the national security law to prevent disruptive behavior. Beijing could also limit the legislative council to only emergency business.
