The one-year delay of the Hong Kong election appears to be an attempt to exhaust the opposition pro-democracy camp, though it may instead serve as a rallying point domestically and internationally. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam announced July 31 that the Legislative Council elections would be delayed by a year, to Sept. 5, 2021, citing the COVID-19 pandemic and her prerogative under the Emergency Regulation Ordinance. The delay, however, was more likely a desperate move by Lam and her pro-Beijing camp, who was facing the real possibility of a much larger win for the pro-democracy camp. As such, the move may embolden the opposition to keep up pressure through international contact and domestic resistance — whether via organized rallies and protests, or in the Legislative Council before its current term ends Sept. 30. 

• The delay has received quick condemnation from the pro-democracy opposition camp, which had seen 12 candidates disqualified for the election a day earlier. Pro-democracy lawmakers have issued a statement declaring a constitutional crisis, citing Hong Kong law that allows only a 14-day delay for elections. 
• Lam consulted with China's State Council, which has referred the issue to the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (which is slated to meet Aug. 8). Any legal challenges that the pro-democracy camp brings to the delay would ultimately go to Hong Kong's Court of Final Appeal. But even that court's decisions can still be reviewed and altered by the Beijing's Standing Committee, according to the Hong Kong Basic Law. 

Beijing's ultimate control over the situation reinforces the perception that Hong Kong's unique status has been further eroded, which will feed into both domestic opposition and international responses. For countries already critical of what they see as a degradation of Hong Kong's rights, particularly since the implementation of the new national security law, the delay will only reinforce their criticism of Beijing. The United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand have already suspended their extradition treaties with Hong Kong, and offered formal or informal invitations for Hong Kong citizens to relocate. Further moves to impact trade relations and continued criticism of Beijing will likely create a difficult position for foreign companies in Hong Kong, which will be caught in the political crossfire. Failure to support the Hong Kong government's decision may lead to risks to business operations in both the mainland and Hong Kong, following a similar pattern after the implementation of the national security law. But potential sanctions or concerns over environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing from businesses' home countries will also create risks on the other side of the coin. 

Focusing on the constitutional crisis created by the election delay could allow for more overt support for protests by giving the opposition camp and its supporters a target that that doesn't run directly afoul of the new national security law. In Hong Kong, the pro-democracy camp has called on citizens to stand up to support the Basic Law and ensure the elections are held on time. While the COVID-19 pandemic will likely limit the number of protestors and demonstrators the opposition camp can rally on the streets, polls still show fairly robust support for the goals of the opposition, including universal suffrage, and the year-long election delay may strengthen that support. Now that there will be no elections, and thus no legal means to express discontent with the government, the more radical elements of the protest movement may revive their activities despite the national security law.