After weeks of speculation, U.S. President Donald Trump finally issued a presidential proclamation on June 22 outlining visa changes that will significantly impede the ability of U.S. tech companies and universities to attract international talent and investment. Should they become permanent, the changes could place the United States' competitive advantage as a business hub in jeopardy by making U.S. visa programs more difficult for foreigners to access. 

• The proclamation, which went into effect on June 24 at midnight Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), has halted the approval process for granting H-1B, H-2B, J-1 and L-1 visas for 180 days. All U.S. industries will be subject to the new changes, except for the medical and food sectors. 
• The United States will also reform the approval process for granting H-1B visas by moving away from the current lottery system toward a system that instead prioritizes visas for high-paying jobs.
• The new proclamation still gives the U.S. Secretary of State and Secretary of Homeland Security the ability to approve specific visas on a case-by-case basis for concerns of national interest. 

With his eyes on the November election, Trump is trying to shore up his plummeting polling numbers by doubling down on his hardline stance on immigration. The Trump administration's perceived political strengths also include its aggressive trade policy, as well as low unemployment and the growth of the U.S. economy. Each of these pillars, however, has struggled in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• On immigration, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a 5-4 ruling on June 18 rejecting Trump's efforts to end the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. 
• With COVID-19 cases still on the rise in many parts of the United States, Democrats have also widely criticized the Trump administration's handling of the health crisis. 
• Trump's signature issue – the economy (and in particular, jobs) – has been particularly battered by the COVID-19 crisis, with U.S. unemployment growing from 3.5 percent to 13.3 percent since the emergence of the outbreak.
• Within this context, Trump's recent polling numbers have continued to fall. FiveThirtyEight's national polling averages now show former Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden with a roughly 9 point lead over Trump.

The visa changes will have the most acute and immediate impact on multinational corporations looking to expand their operations in the United States, as well as businesses in the U.S. technology and education sector. 

• The suspension of issuing H-1B visas will hit the U.S. tech sector particularly hard by undermining the innovativeness of these companies. Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook and Intel usually rank at the top of H-1B visa approvals, along with Indian IT firms such as Tata Consultancy Services. 
• H-1B and J-1 visa programs visas are also commonly granted to foreign faculty members in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) fields. The suspension of these programs will thus also affect hiring plans at U.S. universities by severely curbing their access to leading experts in these fields, of which there is a significant shortage of in the United States. 
• The decision to suspend the L-1 visa program, which is used for companies to relocate foreign workers to their U.S. offices, risks deterring multinational companies from opening up offices in the United States as well. The suspension could also prompt countries to respond in kind, as the L-1 program operates on the principle of reciprocity where U.S. workers are allowed to work in other countries under similar programs. U.S. nationals working overseas could, in turn, face retaliation, both for the L-1 visa restriction and potentially other visas if restrictions become more permanent after the initial 180 days. 

The proclamation could eventually impede the growth and success of all U.S. business sectors by making the United States an overall less attractive destination for highly trained and highly skilled workers. Toronto, for example, has tried to position itself as the alternative North American tech hub to the United States. 

• Should Trump win the November election, the visa changes will likely continue to be implemented throughout his second term. 
• But even if Biden wins the vote, any structural changes that revert back to the pre-Trump visa system will still likely be slow. Such a return, however, is by no means guaranteed under a Biden presidency, given that some members within the Democratic Party have also chastised the same visa programs for taking away job opportunities from Americans.