Last week's protests in Basra appear to have ended Haider al-Abadi's bid to return as Iraq's prime minister once coalition negotiations wrap up. Al-Abadi had already been reeling after his bloc finished third in May's parliamentary elections and the reported defection of some of his allies afterward. But the final nail in the coffin was probably hammered in on Sept. 11 when Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's top Shiite cleric, said neither of the country's two previous prime ministers — al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki — should be the country's next leader.
Two days later on Sept. 13, al-Abadi announced during a news conference, "We respect and obey the instructions of the religious authority Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. I did not and will not request the post of prime minister in the second term."
Factors Behind Protests in Basra Remain
For now, the protests in Basra have died down, but last weekend's unrest was significant. The protesters burned the Iranian consulate, the headquarters of an Iranian-backed Shiite militia and several local government buildings. Rockets were also fired at the Basra airport, landing near the U.S. consulate. Despite this week's relative calm, the concerns driving the protests remain. Basra is a region that is home to over 70 percent of Iraq's oil reserves. On a per capita basis, its oil production rivals that of neighboring Kuwait. Yet Basra has experienced frequent blackouts and water shortages this summer, and many of the city's young residents struggle to find good jobs as the oil revenue is routed through the central government in Baghdad — a central government that Basra argues does not pay the city its fair share of oil revenue. Any new Iraqi leader will face the same challenge as previous prime ministers: how to quell discontent in the country's most important province for oil and trade?
A New Coalition Emerges?
Although talks are continuing, there are rumors that a new coalition could soon gain enough votes in parliament to form a majority. When Iraq's parliament first tried to convene earlier this month, two coalitions — one led by Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, whose bloc won the most seats in May's elections, and one led by former Shiite militia leader Hadi al-Amiri, whose bloc finished second in May — argued that they had respectively formed the largest coalition, thereby giving them a parliamentary majority. But both coalitions have collapsed, and the two have reportedly agreed to form their own coalition, along with the remnants of al-Abadi's bloc. Such a coalition would be in striking distance of forming a parliamentary majority, though al-Amiri and al-Sadr briefly formed a coalition in June that quickly fell apart.
The new coalition is likely to be marked by compromise and probably one that could placate both the United States and Iran, even if it is not ideal for either. The party led by al-Maliki, who is close to Iran, would be left out, much to Washington's delight and Tehran's chagrin. But Iran could live with the outcome as it retains good relations with al-Amiri and has built up vast influence through its Shiite militias, many of which have established political arms that would be involved in the new government. The United States, of course, remains concerned about the level of influence Iran has been able to build in this fashion. Earlier this week, even though protesters in Basra targeted several Iranian facilities, Washington used the rocket attack near its consulate in Basra, and an unrelated attack against the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, to threaten Iranian-supported militias in Iraq.
What to Watch For
Iraq's parliament returns to session Sept. 15 and members will try once again to elect a speaker — the first step toward appointing a prime minister and government. Haggling over who should take the position is continuing, and numerous names have been thrown out as possibilities, including former interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi. Like the haggling, there is also no end yet to the bargaining over which interest group gets which lucrative government portfolio. Here, the key will be al-Sadr, who has called for a technocrat prime minister regardless of sectarian dynamics and even threatened to go into the opposition if one doesn't emerge.
