After al-Maliki in his midnight speech threatened to take newly elected Iraqi President Fouad Massoum to court for not calling on al-Maliki (as the leader of the largest bloc in parliament) to form the next government, the United States issued support for Massoum. The U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs (Iraq and Iran), Brett McGurk, tweeted his full support for Massoum and for a prime ministerial nominee "who can build a national consensus." Previously, Stratfor highlighted how al-Maliki's main regional patron, Iran, had moved toward finding a replacement for the incumbent Iraqi prime minister.
This came after al-Maliki had lost the support of not just Iraqi Shiite groups but also of the Iraqi Shiite religious establishment surrounding Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. In recent days reports surfaced indicating that al-Maliki does not have the full backing of his own State of Law coalition or even his Hizb al-Dawah party. Al-Maliki additionally cannot use the military to counter efforts to replace him because the Iraqi National Army is already struggling in the fight against the transnational jihadist group that calls itself the Islamic State.
Iran, Turkey and the United States are coordinating with key players in the Shiite political camp, including al-Maliki's State of Law coalition, in an attempt to find a suitable replacement candidate. From al-Maliki's perspective, if he cannot secure a third term himself, the most preferable scenario is one where he can get a loyalist from his party to rule in his stead. What is currently occurring across Baghdad is most likely a demonstration of the institutional heft of al-Maliki's political machinery. He has worked diligently since assuming office in 2006, using the country's oil wealth, targeted threats of force and a firm hold over several bureaucratic elements to ensure that it is difficult to replace him. He is likely trying to ensure that his authority and influence continue into the new government, whoever officially holds the post of prime minister.
Political tensions are running high, with competition for the prime minister's office intensifying, even as Baghdad and Western capitals coordinate efforts with the Kurdistan Regional Government to aid Kurdish operations against Islamic State targets in northern Iraq. The unfolding situation in Baghdad warrants close attention, but reported troop movements do not necessarily point to a coup attempt against al-Maliki or efforts by the prime minister to remain in power through force. Both remain distinct possibilities, but any mobilization of forces could also be a pre-emptive move to guard against potential strikes by Islamic State militants against high-value targets and key infrastructure in the capital or further security operations in predominantly Sunni areas in the city.
