
In a major announcement March 8, South Korean National Security Adviser Chung Eui Yong said that U.S. President Donald Trump has accepted an invitation to meet with North Korea's Kim Jong Un as early as May. White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said that the president would meet with Kim at a place and time to be determined, adding that the U.S. looks forward to a denuclearized North Korea. This sudden announcement follows a landmark meeting between South Korean officials and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un earlier in the week — the culmination of months of inter-Korean detente. In the message carried by the South Korean delegation, Kim extended a commitment to denuclearization, said North Korea will refrain from further nuclear or missile tests, and offered a conciliatory outreach by noting that he understands routine U.S.-South Korea military exercises must continue. The latest development built on the momentum of the inter-Korean detente, with the third summit between the peninsular neighbors taking place in April.
Facing the potential threat of a U.S. military strike and under heavy sanctions pressure, North Korea has been forging a diplomatic path with South Korea since the beginning of 2018. This is a tried-and-true North Korean tactic, reaching out at the height of crisis in hopes of breaking out of spiraling tensions with the United States. And this is not the first time the country has done so — there are numerous examples over the past several decades. In this instance, Pyongyang has skillfully played on South Korea's fear of a military strike and hopes of reunification. It has also shored up Russian and Chinese arguments over the past year that the United States is fueling a toxic dynamic of escalation that the Washington itself could end. The North's mention of denuclearization fulfills a long-standing demand by Washington that any talks result in a nonproliferation agreement.
The latest developments are a positive sign for China. Beijing's top priority is to defuse the standoff and deter the United States from resorting to military action to curtail Pyongyang's activities. Beijing clearly understands its limited ability to rein in North Korea, let alone shape U.S. decision-making. Instead, China views the ongoing inter-Korean dialogue as an opportunity to once again become a greater player in the U.S.-South Korean dynamic. If negotiations between the United States and North Korea make serious headway, however, Beijing will likely feel the need to reassert its position.
The March 8 announcement will cause further concern among U.S. allies, particularly Japan. Tokyo, a stalwart supporter of Washington's attempt to bring North Korea to heel, has already expressed concern over the inter-Korean dialogue. A sudden shift in the U.S. position will put Japan on the back foot, leaving Tokyo will little choice but to re-engage. It remains unclear whether Russia would have a stake in bilateral negotiations, despite Moscow's role in facilitating earlier talks involving North Korea.
However, there are still many weeks and many meetings before any Kim-Trump meeting would take place. The U.S. president said in a tweet that sanctions would remain in place until an agreement is reached. And if talks do begin to address denuclearization, it is still unclear what the United States would ask for in terms of extent and verification or what North Korea would ask for in terms of regime security. Such requests would be hard for Washington to accept if they involve a change to the U.S. defense architecture in Asia or its security relationship with allies such as Japan and South Korea. What is certain, though, is that North Korea has put the ball firmly and squarely in the U.S. court.