(Stratfor)

South Korea is in a bind. Its main strategic ally, the United States, is locked in a confrontation with North Korea that could lead to a military conflict. Meanwhile, the country is preparing for the Olympic and Paralympic games in February and March under the prospect of poor attendance or disruption due to North Korean weapons tests. On top of that, China announced Dec. 18 that it would reinstate a ban on tour groups traveling to South Korea that it first rolled out in retaliation for South Korea installing U.S. Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense radar systems. Despite South Korea's best attempts to ease tensions ahead of the games and find a path through the North Korea crisis that avoids a U.S. military strike, it has had little success in the pursuit thus far.

To that end, reports emerged Dec. 11 that Seoul had asked Washington to consider delaying two joint military exercises — Foal Eagle and Key Resolve — normally carried out in March, likely hoping to incentivize North Korea's participation in the Olympic Games and perhaps even encourage a halt in weapons testing. South Korean President Moon Jae In confirmed the report in a Dec. 19 interview, saying that a decision would depend on North Korean behavior and that the United States was reviewing the request. As South Korea searches for ways to avoid conflict, delaying the drills would give the country a low-key opportunity to try out the so-called "dual freeze" approach. Proposed by China and Russia, this approach would trade a pause in testing for a pause in U.S.-South Korea military exercises, opening up a potential path to dialogue.

But North Korea is steadily nearing the completion of a credible nuclear deterrent, which the United States is holding a firm line against. It's unclear whether both sides would agree to the terms of a dual freeze approach or, if they did, whether they would be willing to make their intentions clear enough to allow for talks. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson responded to Moon's interview by saying he was not aware of any rescheduling plans and that the routine drills are conducted on predetermined dates. The U.S. Department of Defense, for its part, refused to comment on Moon's statement.

Instead, the United States appears to be building a case that the threat of a nuclear North Korea is unacceptable and must be dealt with. On Dec. 18, White House homeland security advisor Tom Bossert published an editorial in the Wall Street Journal that accused North Korea of conducting the WannaCry ransomware attack in May. And on Dec. 19, reports emerged that North Korea may be conducting tests to deploy anthrax via its intercontinental ballistic missiles. The anthrax report has dubious validity, but its circulation helps to underscore the U.S. argument. The United States continues efforts to convince the international community that North Korea is a global threat, which must not be allowed to operate from behind a nuclear shield.

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