As the United States weighs its options on North Korea, it's once again signaling what it would take for talks to take place. On Dec. 12, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that the United States is ready to hold talks with North Korea without preconditions, adding that it is not realistic to expect North Korea to first abandon its nuclear program. Tillerson's remarks brought speculation that Washington's position is changing, but his statements must be taken in context. While saying that there were no preconditions for talks, he also effectively set preconditions: According to Tillerson, talks should be preceded by an announced halt to North Korean weapons testing and North Korea must come to the table willing to change course.

Tillerson clearly stated that the U.S. goal was the total denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Accepting and containing a nuclear North Korea, according to Tillerson, would likely lead to nuclear proliferation, and that is not an option when North Korea has no record of abiding by international norms. This position leaves little room for compromise. North Korea's strategy has long been to attain a credible nuclear deterrent it can use to negotiate with the international community. The country is now close to attaining that objective, and there is little likelihood that it will abandon its path. The most recent hiatus in North Korean testing came with no official explanation and ended with an intercontinental ballistic missile test after 75 days. A White House official also followed up on Tillerson's remarks Dec. 13 by saying that Pyongyang must change its behavior before talks can take place.

Tillerson also spoke of U.S. military preparations. He revealed that the United States and China have been talking seriously about contingency plans for a U.S. military strike on North Korea and have discussed strategies to secure North Korea's nuclear weapons if its government collapses. The United States has apparently also assured China that U.S. forces would pull back to below the 38th parallel — China's line in the sand on the Korean Peninsula — after crossing into North Korea. In the past, China has avoided talking about such scenarios for fear of provoking Pyongyang, but the United States is applying pressure. Tillerson again called on China to fully cut off oil exports to drive Pyongyang toward the negotiating table, and National Security Adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster said time was running out for China to reign in North Korea.

Despite planning for the worst and few indications that either side is willing to talk, there is still some diplomatic outreach. U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Joseph Yun will attend a regional security forum alongside North Korean counterparts on Dec. 14-15, offering a potential channel for behind the scenes talks. In addition, former U.S. diplomat and U.N. official Jeffrey Feltman has traveled to Pyongyang for a policy dialogue. Reports have also recently emerged that South Korea may be looking to delay military exercises until after the Paralympic games in late March, which would give North Korea an opening to stop testing.

A meeting between U.S. and North Korean officials cannot be ruled out, particularly as the option for a military strike becomes more real in the coming months. However, it's difficult to envisage a path toward compromise between North Korea and the United States. The United States is unlikely to compromise on its goal for a completely denuclearized Korean Peninsula. North Korea, for its part, will be unwilling to change course when it is so close to gaining a credible nuclear deterrent.