Armenia is in the midst of a major political reshuffle designed to stem the government's growing unpopularity among the Armenian people. In August, President Serzh Sarkisian announced plans to form a "government of national accord," following a controversial hostage crisis in the country in July. A new Armenian prime minister, Karen Karapetyan, was appointed last week after his predecessor, Hovik Abrahamyan, resigned. Now, it appears that the country's Defense Ministry will be included in the changes. According to a Sept. 12 report from Interfax that cited an unnamed source in Armenia's government, Armenian Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan may be named the next secretary-general of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
If confirmed, Ohanyan's appointment, which could be announced Oct. 14 at an upcoming CSTO Security Council meeting, would signal an important shift in the organization. The CSTO is the pre-eminent military bloc in the former Soviet space, serving as a platform for defense cooperation and integration among its member states (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan). Russia is the undisputed leader of the alliance, and Ohanyan would be the first non-Russian to lead it.
Armenia, meanwhile, remains embroiled in a standoff with Azerbaijan over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. In April, the conflict saw a significant escalation of hostilities, during which Russia and the CSTO did not intervene on Armenia's behalf. This exposed the limits of Armenia's strategic alliance with Russia — a major weapons supplier to Azerbaijan — and of its membership in the CSTO, leaving the government in Yerevan feeling isolated at a sensitive time. The flare-up in Nagorno-Karabakh intensified domestic discontent in Armenia, and Russia has been pressuring the country to intensify diplomatic negotiations with Azerbaijan to find a political solution to the conflict.
But the Armenian government's struggles may be prompting Moscow to re-evaluate its tactics. Ohanyan's appointment to head the CSTO could be a show of support from Russia to Armenia in the security sphere. It could also signify a shift in what has until now been Moscow's balancing act between Yerevan and Baku. This will, of course, depend on whether Ohanyan is appointed to the post and how much power he is given as CSTO chief. He would face major constraints in any effort to steer the organization toward Armenian interests, most notably the fact that Russia is still the dominant power within the alliance. Nevertheless, his appointment could signal that Moscow is willing to increase its security support for Armenia and relent on the pressure it has been putting on Yerevan in recent months.
