The past few months, riddled with sporadic bouts of volatility inside and outside its borders, have been difficult for Armenia. In April, military escalation in the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh caught Yerevan off guard, resulting in a small but notable loss of territory for the Armenian-backed Nagorno-Karabakh forces. The incident left the most casualties for Armenia and Azerbaijan seen since they implemented a cease-fire in 1994. And though the uptick in fighting lasted just over four days, it was enough to show that Russia, Armenia's strategic ally, was unwilling to come to Yerevan's defense. Instead, Moscow forced Armenia to resume diplomatic negotiations with Azerbaijan on the issue.
Many Armenians consider the conflict and subsequent talks to be major setbacks, since Armenia would have preferred to maintain the status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh. In fact, this disappointment was one of the primary motives behind the July 17 capture of a police office in Yerevan by an armed group called Daredevils of Sassoun, an offshoot of Armenia's Founding Parliament opposition movement. The group, composed of many veterans of the Nagorno-Karabakh War, received an outpouring of support from Armenian society. Thousands of people protested against the government, prompting it to open talks with the group that eventually led to its surrender on July 31.
Yet even though the hostage crisis has concluded, the pressure on Sarkisian's government remains. The demonstrations over the hostage crisis were only the latest in a series of large protests against the government that have taken place over the past few years. The president himself acknowledged as much in an Aug. 1 meeting with Armenian public, cultural and religious figures, in which he said that Armenian authorities are not perfect and that the country faces many problems and complex issues. His comments directly referenced the handling of the hostage crisis, which many have criticized as a product of Sarkisian's centralization of power and his heavy-handed methods for dealing with the opposition. To address these concerns, Sarkisian proposed forming "authorities of national accord, in which issues will be solved under a wide consensus." He added that the authorities will be in place in a matter of months.
Though the president did not elaborate on the details of such a government or whom it will include, he did point to constitutional reforms already underway that will serve as a base for its formation. The reforms are part of Armenia's transition from a semi-presidential system to a parliamentary one, a process that was approved by referendum in 2015 and is scheduled to be inaugurated in 2018. In theory, the transition should give the legislature more power over the president. But many citizens suspect that the reform is a way for Sarkisian, who cannot run for a third presidential term, to keep his hold on power through indirect means.
In the wake of the Nagorno-Karabakh flare-up, the hostage crisis and the recent protests, the public has lost its appetite for a continuation of Sarkisian's rule. More demonstrations against his government are likely, and additional attacks or acts of violence against it cannot be ruled out. Sarkisian's attempts to establish a government of national accord might buy him some time to change tack, but the sincerity of his efforts will come under heavy scrutiny from a skeptical citizenry. Even if Sarkisian's administration averts disaster, Armenia's lasting geopolitical constraints will continue to pose a serious challenge to the government, especially when it comes to navigating its simmering conflict with Azerbaijan.
