On Nov. 7, Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council announced that a column of 32 tanks, 16 howitzer artillery systems and 30 trucks had moved from Russia into eastern Ukraine. The announcement follows warnings earlier in the week from Ukrainian government officials that Russia was sending more supplies to rebels in the country's east. Over the past two weeks, unconfirmed reports of supplies, weapons and equipment crossing from Russia into Luhansk and Donetsk provinces emerged on social media. These reports point to a movement of Grad multiple launch rocket systems, tanks, ammunition and anti-aircraft weapons into the region. The Ukrainian government has a mixed track record when reporting on the movements of Russian-backed personnel and supplies. However, reports from a diverse set of sources indicate a potential increase in the amount of Russian supplies and weapons flowing into eastern Ukraine, specifically to the areas where we have seen sustained and consistent fighting since the cease-fire formally took effect in early September.
The latest reports do not necessarily indicate a change in the Kremlin's strategy in Ukraine. Supply flows from Russia to the separatist forces never stopped throughout the cease-fire period. Moreover, as winter approaches, separatists and their supporters may be seeking to store extra supplies for months when transportation is more difficult. Despite reports of an uptick in the amount of supplies moving from Russia into eastern Ukraine, fighting has remained low-grade and death tolls on the Ukrainian side have stayed consistent since September.
Additionally, fighting has remained concentrated in four key areas for the past weeks. The strategic crossroads at Debaltseve and its surrounding towns, the outskirts of the city of Donetsk and its airport, towns to the west and northwest of the city of Luhansk, and the area to the northeast of the port city of Mariupol have seen small-scale fighting, shelling and in some cases attacks using Grad multiple launch rocket systems over the past weeks. Ultimately, Russian-backed forces have largely maintained their tactics and geographic focus.
Moscow is now working to give the Kremlin options when it comes to shaping its future relationship with both separatist-controlled regions and the government in Kiev. By increasing supplies and weapons flows to eastern Ukraine, Russia is maintaining its leverage vis-a-vis the government in Kiev. For Russia, a new offensive in eastern Ukraine would likely prove unpopular domestically and could lead Western governments to impose new sanctions. As a result, the Kremlin will continue supplying and aiding separatists in eastern Ukraine to retain its capability to act, should it choose to do so, while avoiding a significant offensive operation or a move to engage the Ukrainian military in areas other than the current focal points of conflict.
