On Nov. 4, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko ordered his military forces to reinforce several towns, including the port city of Mariupol and the city of Kharkiv, in case separatists mount a new offensive. Over the past week, the Ukrainian government and eyewitnesses on the ground have reported an uptick in the flow of reinforcements, supplies and weapons from Russia across the border into eastern Ukraine. The movements have raised the question of whether Moscow's strategy or intent in eastern Ukraine is shifting. Russia is seizing an opportunity to increase its political leverage over Kiev by mounting troops while also keeping its military options open.
Many of the reports depict convoys of KAMAZ trucks carrying items such as Grad multiple rocket launch systems, ammunition and anti-aircraft weapons. Fuel trucks and armored vehicles have also been sighted, as well as tank columns moving west by rail from Russia's Rostov-on-Don. Most of these sightings took place near the city of Donetsk, while a few reports said such convoys were moving on the road to Debaltseve, a town at a crossroads between the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk where fighting between Kiev and separatist forces is ongoing. There are also unconfirmed reports of movement to the north of Luhansk.
At the same time, NATO's Supreme Commander in Europe, Gen. Philip Breedlove, said during a Nov. 3 press conference at the Pentagon that there are currently seven battalion task groups on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine. He added that over the past week, around the time of the separatist elections in Donetsk and Luhansk, some of these forces left their encampments and moved closer to the Ukrainian border. While Gen. Breedlove highlighted how the border between Russia and Ukraine has become "completely porous," and that Russian equipment and soldiers flow freely across the border, he also noted that there are only between 250 and 300 "actual Russian troops inside of Ukraine doing the training and equipping of the separatist forces." He emphasized that these forces have no combat role.
Conflicted Reports
By nature, these reports are fragmentary. They give us a glimpse of the kinds of supplies that may be flowing into the region, but they fail to give us a precise picture of quantities or exact geographic locations. However, the volume of reports points to an increase in Russian supplies and weapons being delivered to the Donbas region.
Throughout the conflict in Ukraine, reinforcements have come in many different shapes or forms, including Russian-trained separatists, Russian volunteers, clandestine military units and Russian forces in unmarked uniforms, often referred to as "little green men." These forces are difficult to identify, and the latest convoy may include anywhere from one to several of these troop categories. Moreover, it is unclear whether some of these forces are relieving other units or if separatists are building their numbers up. It is therefore difficult to place an exact number of actual Russian troops in eastern Ukraine, and reports on the size and nature of the Russian military presence will likely remain conflicting.
Russia's Position
Regardless of whether it is mostly Russian soldiers or Russian-trained separatists moving supplies into the region, the potential uptick is the result of a decision made in Moscow. As their sole provider of training and logistics, the Kremlin has significant influence over separatist groups — even more so over the equipment and personnel moving across its border into eastern Ukraine.
Although small-scale fighting has continued in strategic places such as the Donetsk airport and Debaltseve, a cease-fire has officially been in place since Sept. 5. For the Kremlin, there are a few reasons for choosing now to move more weapons and supplies into the separatist-held regions. First, winter is approaching, and Russian military planners want to ensure that separatist fighters have enough weapons, fuel and supplies to last through the winter months, when transportation throughout the region is more difficult. Another key reason for the increased supplies and equipment is the Kremlin's need to consolidate its gains in eastern Ukraine and stabilize its lines. Moreover, there are reports that Russia is taking command of different separatist groups which have thus far been operating independently in an effort to centralize control and streamline operations in places like the Donetsk airport, where fighting continues. By supplying the rebels, Russia is also maintaining the rebels' operational capability through times of potential disrupted logistics. Finally, the increase in supply and weapons flows may indicate that Russia is preparing for a buildup inside the rebel-held areas in preparation for an expanded military operation to gain new territories.
An expanded, Russian-supported military operation to take new territories is unlikely during the short run while the Kremlin is facing a host of challenges, both externally and at home. The majority of Russians oppose a direct intervention in Ukraine, while falling oil prices and a plummeting ruble are causing concern among Russian policymakers and the general public regarding the government's ability to finance its defense and energy projects while still meeting its social spending obligations. Furthermore, Russian military aggressiveness would likely lead to more sanctions from the West and further antagonize the domestic polity.
Russia knows this. Since the conflict began, its ultimate goal has been to prevent Ukraine from integrating with Western institutions, especially NATO, and to turn the country into a neutral buffer state. It does not want to take over Ukraine. Increasing supply and weapons deliveries to eastern Ukraine gives Moscow a capable tool, one of many, to use as leverage against Kiev. With a growing amount of weapons and supplies in place in Donbas, in addition to separatist and Russian forces in place both inside Ukraine and on the Russian side of the border, the Kremlin is increasing its military leverage over Kiev. Moscow is not committing to an operation that would be highly unpopular and damaging to the government both domestically and internationally, but it is also not completely taking the option off the table. In other words, these recent movements can be seen as political posturing that lets the Kremlin keep its options open by laying the groundwork for potential further military advances.
