The recent words and actions of key members of the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front have highlighted competing factions' attempts to put themselves in a favorable position prior to Mugabe's potential death or replacement as party leader. Two main factions have emerged: Mnangagwa's camp is demonstrating its significant backing, while Mugabe is deflecting the succession issue and continuing to fight to maintain his hold over the presidency.
The Feuding Factions
Mugabe lashed out against one of Mnangagwa's allies, Information Minister Jonathan Moyo, at the funeral for party veteran Nathan Shamuyarira on June 7. Moyo has used his control over the state media to back Mnangagwa's position and has been very critical of Mugabe and others within the party over the past year. While allies of Joice Mujuru, the current vice president and Mnangagwa's main competitor in the succession bid, supported the claims made against Moyo, Mugabe is not necessarily backing Mujuru as his successor.
Mugabe has consistently avoided supporting any potential successor but has been involved in party infighting in order to preserve his own power. The Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front's victory over the Movement for Democratic Change in the 2013 election secured the party's position. Mugabe was instrumental in this as the face of the party, but now that the party's position is safe, internal pressure to replace Mugabe has been growing. The president seems determined to finish his term and has not even referred to a succession. Declaring a successor could lead to a rapid dissolution of his own power as attention shifts from garnering favor with Mugabe to appeasing his replacement. This is a common risk in countries that have a personality-based authoritarian leadership structure.
However, Mnangagwa's faction would like to see the succession mapped out sooner rather than later. Sources have told Stratfor that Mnangagwa's camp would like to secure the succession before Mugabe turns 91 in February. Mugabe's health is deteriorating, and his potential passing before the next election is a looming concern. Settling the succession issue would help avoid the sudden power struggle that Mugabe's inability to complete his term would trigger. Leading figures in the country's armed forces and intelligence community who back Mnangagwa allegedly have pressured Mugabe into making it clear to Mujuru that she will not be considered to take over the presidency on anything beyond a temporary basis. However, Mugabe does not appear ready to commit to any succession plans yet.
Support from Zimbabwe's security and military leadership will be important for Mnangagwa when the succession plans are finally settled. The armed forces, Central Intelligence Organization and Joint Operations Command, which coordinates state security and over which Mnangagwa presides, are the pillars supporting the ruling party's power. Mujuru and Mugabe also receive some level of backing from Zimbabwe's security and military apparatuses, and Mujuru has her own political backing consisting of Cabinet members, lawmakers and representatives of Zimbabwean civil society. Her alliance is unlikely to hold up, however, against the security organizations that physically control Zimbabwe and government revenue. Moreover, although Mnangagwa appears to be the strongest player right now, the security and military leadership's focus is on guaranteeing a stable succession and avoiding a violent coup or security breakdowns.
Mnangagwa's Potential
If Mnangagwa succeeds Mugabe, he could be well-received in the international community because he is believed to be a possible instrument for economic reform and political normalization. Mnangagwa and his allies have already demonstrated their willingness to overturn Mugabe's Indigenization and Economic Empowerment Act by opening up the country's fuel distribution network to foreign corporations. While the indigenization policies that play mostly into securing local electoral support have become less important to the ruling party since the 2013 elections, it is notable that companies such as Glencore and Trafigura allegedly are making significant headway in gaining control of Zimbabwe's fuel distribution through Mnangagwa and his backers. John Mushayavanhu, a banker many consider to be one of Mnangagwa's allies, purchased a majority stake in Zuva Petroleum earlier this year, but elements within the Zimbabwean administration are now fighting the transaction due to allegations that Mushayavanhu is a frontman for Glencore. Similarly, Mnangagwa and his backers secured control of Sakunda Energy, which Puma Energy, a South African subsidiary of Trafigura, is now purportedly acquiring.
Mugabe loyalists' defense of the strict application of the indigenization policies helps to secure the president's position in two ways. The public battle for indigenization aims to hold onto popular support in Zimbabwe, while the legal battle against the deals facilitated by Mnangagwa's allies limits his ability to garner international support.
Zimbabwe's economy is in dire need of reforms; the official government treasury is virtually empty. Foreign diplomats and investors reportedly see Mnangagwa as a possible agent of economic change. Zimbabwe also requires investment in much-needed infrastructure relating to power generation and refining capacity if the country wants to ensure foreign investment in platinum mining. Potential investors are already said to be maneuvering to benefit from Zimbabwe's transition. They have been causing movements of capital on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange while also setting up shell companies in South Africa and engaging politically connected business partners through front offices in Zimbabwe.
While many have a possible stake in both the succession and economic reforms, everything still depends on Mugabe dying or stepping aside at some point. The Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front's party leadership conference in December will mark a key moment for the competing factions within the party, including Mugabe, to establish their control. While Mnangagwa holds a great deal of power, Mugabe and Mujuru could still extend their own political reach to block or postpone his ascension as Mugabe's successor, casting doubt on the timeline Mnangagwa's backers envision for succession.
