A Zimbabwean law known as the Indigenization and Empowerment Act came into effect March 1. The law mandates that 51 percent ownership of any company operating in Zimbabwe with assets worth more than $500,000 be transferred to "indigenous," meaning black, Zimbabweans by 2015. Originally passed by the parliament in 2007, and signed by President Robert Mugabe in 2008, the law now gives all firms of said worth 45 days to present a plan to the government laying out how each one intends to bring itself into compliance, or to prove that it already fits the model of a company majority-owned by indigenous Zimbabweans. While the bill is widely seen as a populist gesture generated by Mugabe's party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), it is unlikely that it will affect as many companies as ZANU-PF supporters may expect, and will almost certainly have to be fully implemented by a president other than Mugabe, who, at age 86, will not likely be around for five more years. The debate over indigenization in Zimbabwe has been going on for several years, and the term itself is a euphemism for a sort of pseudo-nationalization that aims to further ZANU-PF's control over the nation's economy, though proponents have so far avoided using the term "nationalization." In early February, several media reports indicated that ZANU-PF had softened its stance, and was willing to "think over" the law before pushing ahead. These reports, however, either were based on erroneous information, or proved to be only a momentary reconsideration, as Mugabe and his supporters have since decided to proceed. The law represents a direct challenge to Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's authority, as Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change party have long opposed the measure and declared it "null and void" during the recent debate over it coming into effect. One provision in the law stipulates that prison terms of five years will be handed out to those who refuse to bring targeted companies into compliance, and the language in the bill reportedly warns against the use of black "front" owners by whites. The government has attempted to appear more flexible on the issue by declaring that firms would be left to their own devices to choose whom to sell necessary shares to, though it is likely that the firms would be pressured by Harare to sell to those affiliated with ZANU-PF, whether they are party officials or well-connected individuals. By mid-April, all applicable companies must submit a form to the government which lists the names, nationalities and other pertinent details about each shareholder regarding whether or not that person is an indigenous Zimbabwean. The wording is crucial, as an indigenous Zimbabwean has been defined as someone who was "disadvantaged" during the period of white rule, when Zimbabwe was known as Rhodesia, something that only changed in 1980 when it achieved its independence from the United Kingdom. It will not be easy for ZANU-PF to enforce the law for a variety of reasons. The most obvious is the five-year window it gives companies to move from its stated plan for implementation (the deadline to submit the forms in mid-April) to actually transferring the shares. Mugabe just turned 86 years old; it is probable, also, that he will not be elected to another term when elections are next held in Zimbabwe, likely in either 2011 or 2012. While it is no guarantee that ZANU-PF will remain in power, even if this is the case, it remains to be seen whether a replacement would opt for the same strategy. Another roadblock is that several of the companies affected are already listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. Deciphering which companies have indigenous shareholders would be very difficult and make for an even worse investment climate in the country. Zimbabwe and South Africa reached a bilateral agreement in November 2009 that reportedly rules out any forced sale of shares owned by South African companies without fair compensation. Pressuring companies owned by Western governments and white Zimbabweans is one thing, but playing the same game with South Africa, a country with significant mining and other interests in Zimbabwe, is another. Such an action could encourage South Africa to increase pressure on ZANU-PF to reconcile with Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change, a type of foreign pressure Mugabe's party desperately wants to avoid.