The current elections in Zimbabwe are particularly important for the current regime because they are supposed to lead to a stable term of government that will grant more freedom of operations. While Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front held on to power quite successfully after the contested 2008 elections, it was forced into a power-sharing deal with Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change. The sudden electoral rise of this urban labor party had almost threatened the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front's victory and in the end caused Mugabe's party to grant certain government positions to Tsvangirai's party. Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front members of the government, however, kept tight control of political and financial means within the government and the Movement for Democratic Change's part in the government was mostly marked by public outcries over its inability to influence policy.
If current reports are correct, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front would not only be on track to win the 2013 elections, but it would also have succeeded in pushing back the electoral weight of the Movement for Democratic Change. Polling stations in Harare, the Movement for Democratic Change's electoral stronghold in 2008, are now having more votes cast in favor of Mugabe's party, election officials said. In several parts of the country, the Movement for Democratic Change would be losing parliamentary seats to the ruling party, which would prevent a repeat of the last election's process that led to the power-sharing agreement.
However, Tsvangirai and his followers will cast doubt on the validity of the elections by pointing out irregularities. The alleged attempts at vote rigging range from the registration of nonexistent voters, turning Movement for Democratic Change voters away, keeping polling stations open way beyond the closing date and even transporting voters by buses to other districts where their vote would make more of an impact. These elections did not, however, see anything near the amount of violence and intimidation of voters that was reported during the 2008 elections. While allegations of vote rigging are widespread, the methods used are less blatant and oppressive than those of the previous elections and could thus be expected to be less of a tool for the Movement for Democratic Change, especially if its electoral position has also been diminished.
Since Mugabe is almost 90 years old, his political career will be coming to an end soon. Securing a victory now would put his party in the comfortable position of having five years of rule to accommodate his succession. The process of succession will also be closely followed by South Africa, which has an interest in reforms in Zimbabwe after Mugabe's rule.
A victory for the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front in Zimbabwe is also a victory for the African National Congress in South Africa. South African politicians fear that a victory for the Movement for Democratic Change in Zimbabwe could inspire urban labor parties to rise in South Africa and threaten the established African National Congress dominance. The re-election of Mugabe, however, clears the stage for a succession move that would allow Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front to become more moderate, under South African pressure, and to reduce the role of military and security forces to favor the development of the Zimbabwean economy. This would also bring opportunities for South Africa to tap into the Zimbabwean mining and agricultural potential that could facilitate Zimbabwe's economic recovery.
