Zimbabwe's ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) reached a power-sharing agreement Sept. 11 that will be signed Sept. 15. The power-sharing deal is aimed at resolving the country's political crisis triggered following disputed elections March 29. But the current deal is more image management than a substantial shift in executive power from President Robert Mugabe to opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. Ultimately, the deal will not substantially alter Mugabe's grip on power due to his expected continued control over the most significant Cabinet positions and ministries. Under the deal, Mugabe is expected to retain his office, as are his two ZANU-PF vice presidents, Joseph Msika and Joyce Mujuru. Mugabe also will chair the Cabinet. MDC leader Tsvangirai is expected to become prime minister, a position that will be created for him; he also is to chair a new body to be known as the council of ministers. Tsvangirai will have two deputies, one from ZANU-PF (Emerson Mnangagwa has been floated as a candidate) and the other perhaps Arthur Mutambara, the leader of a rival MDC faction. The deal is likely to lead to a sharing of Cabinet portfolios, with ZANU-PF holding 15, Tsvangirai's faction 13, and Mutambara's faction three, though details of portfolio assignments are not yet known. Mugabe will retain overall control of the Cabinet, and his party is likely to hold onto ministries that have to do with national security and related affairs, portfolios necessary for the ZANU-PF regime to ensure its security against possible MDC reprisals. Tsvangirai's premiership is likely to be surveilled and undermined by Mnangagwa — a ZANU-PF kingpin and former head of the country's Central Intelligence Organization — to blunt possible power struggles between the president and the new leader of the government. Tsvangirai probably will control less crucial ministries. Even so, these ministries still will play an important role in rebuilding the country, which has been devastated by a severe economic collapse. Tsvangirai could well receive foreign affairs and an economic portfolio. This represents a calculated risk for ZANU-PF in that the portfolios will permit Tsvangirai a platform to garner external support and try to improve his position at home. On the other hand, the ruling party expects Tsvangirai will lead a campaign for international donor support for reconstruction funds — a gargantuan task that can be manipulated to engineer Tsvangirai's downfall. The European Union and the United States will adopt a wait-and-see approach as to the workings of the power sharing deal. South African President Thabo Mbeki, whose mediation brokered the deal, will call for international support to underwrite the plan, and will likely need to continue to press Mugabe and Tsvangirai to work together. Ultimately, given Mugabe's control over the armed forces and a capable private militia (not to mention veto power in the country's Senate over any untoward MDC moves in Zimbabwe's lower house of assembly), his government will be able to contain Tsvangirai's from several angles.
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